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[lastpost] => 2770604 黄金暴涨，Z 世代却只信比特币：你会选哪边？ 1759558436 rainwang
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
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认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界， b$ ^% x! H5 Y) [$ d
8 [) t' W! }, y% h- f* c! N6 s而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
7 Q$ j+ C2 J* V9 j) k
3 E" `4 n' @2 w8 u) \的千禧一代。
+ E3 b" a* ?" S: n5 L* C3 N( a H) W从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
" c3 E6 v) }$ @8 p8 E1 ?" ^ F0 N
, t( ~& D( L- v& \' r! [0 q的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“8 L; t7 j) [6 q e) I
: a6 {9 k6 Q Y1 j; ~! Z
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
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密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
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/ ]& V' D% I$ X9 G) O6 K《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成: R3 \' p, ^5 R
3 e. y" |% L3 t! A的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》- L( Z* G- d4 V! L/ F
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报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；4 x( q1 ^3 l$ T4 o$ @
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10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
! K7 r- B4 K/ d. q; w3 i
@* F. W- b' j" i# n% `2 vETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。( n1 ~( ?' { t3 l5 x" h
9 z0 C: I( e7 r/ i% F据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
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+ B7 M6 J1 G) b9 A& E8 r息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。3 O/ K w0 d. v- I0 i& z1 ~
/ i' ~! G m3 c5 y9 Z与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密5 f T4 k: i* u1 s+ T
0 w$ L1 I" w& Y. c W) w9 x. q
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富; e. M- u0 ^% q p1 w. s% f$ g
9 y7 q/ A1 S; e7 A0 f: d6 E传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不& i+ R# y* @% w
9 W+ ], }; h5 n9 S' j3 L到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
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. y, z, P7 b, n$ R$ ]" m+ H代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成4 T% j2 y8 U/ b0 P8 t
$ b. Y3 S4 z4 D+ T2 G本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体. }- v: {, ~0 _4 [, V
" ?! X8 D$ p! A2 f2 x Z6 _系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
* D4 K3 d+ p( U3 A" f" ^- \' V$ M; f9 S% \& `6 p9 v/ f$ _# M, C8 R
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
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8 T( R1 J: D# }7 I9 p未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富6 }$ n+ B& O: D1 X9 {# H$ M7 t
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/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。1 `, M, V7 E# \* w, k, |+ B! k" t
# `3 l S5 l' ~1 q2 i8 R
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