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[lastpost] => 2770290 参议员 Lummis 表示参议院正在就加密税规则取得进展（转） 1759255986 小钱儿
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X' q$ E; b5 M7 }加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
1 s. Y. m# M3 _- t1 ]) E+ gDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，/ ?3 Y0 T9 l/ d; G4 @( T3 T0 {6 }' d
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。) X ~. F3 L' [' J- P% k; j) t
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0( ]4 P) Z+ n z, u* y/ d
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。$ k- M8 }. M) y- p9 }% Q) ^5 w a. |
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
8 z2 G4 y( v: H' \" ?. ]$ }2024年4月第四次减半
' N( \7 z6 t; |0 n# x7 I' Z% m% j1 }; X机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
" o, A) [, q" h3 ^可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
( Q$ v4 o b2 i) E" q2 @; p' n0 B针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
* y H, h) t; D8 o4 G0 H, H二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
+ u2 H( }/ w( N! B; ]# ?; l2 `! Efriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
6 p! G: M$ U. S$ T6 p2 Y) X9 L0 oPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
# C$ [$ M% x/ ?. R3 C/ w诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。0 S9 A) g& `6 G* H7 K8 m2 r
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
7 x+ Q' c$ w" f' M. @- B3 R除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统3 j+ F9 N; K- t
金融(TradFi)产品。
( Y" S4 p3 k! g) R如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
5 r. K4 e( N! q, ~0 N链桥」的项目。( X6 \* _5 A' F* u& s- o
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
J" f" B9 z ~- j/ b模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作4 E5 m+ Y' c( b* l$ k) W
等。
1 l3 O# w- C, U) _$ e& k/ l, V7 w6 p0 r6 ^Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用( g7 ~, I2 E1 r* ^
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。3 H6 c( E- R4 `! e5 t+ x6 ]$ i1 ]
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN6 l# P: Y: y' Q& M
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位# {4 |+ C8 H5 W; \ k
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
1 f9 J4 G0 l) n) @Pantera点名了几个项目：1 ^5 x R2 l k% `, H, X5 d
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
6 j' d' B; ^7 I- A A' J2 TBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台, S- l/ _/ K) W; @9 w$ ?
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
1 M. F8 k W% b' JThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划2 f* L( X3 x. I( \
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游. R6 C8 d+ I4 p# `3 G
六、小型公链需专注特定应用/ v M# L# @: ?" b9 I0 N! F
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚0 k# b2 r8 V& J* }
至能直接与L2竞争。) K' Z( Z: Y+ B) p
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。$ D9 }% S g2 Q6 I6 i2 ?3 J
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
7 r5 Z& F+ m3 k: G5 {成为「应用链」。" Q3 k3 e3 ^$ \7 o
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
$ ]1 z/ o( s1 s7 [/ {; A/ c4 d6 @9 W% }$ ]8 T+ G
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