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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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3 N% z6 H5 z& v1 k; u9 A$ ` 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。- [9 J; x' W) [0 ?. f, `8 m) {; [
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续6 I/ a$ {) U8 X' Q* p
& _) M, E7 z* h8 Z7 }' w7 ^1 q1 W Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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7 k' O9 q5 o ]: @ 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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) [1 P B, n. @/ i2 z! ?4 i 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。5 \3 e- h" T3 ~ w0 `
# D4 d* Z: D j% R( o% t( z/ k" P 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。9 Z2 H' j. ~, j+ B
# x; j' q( t$ V9 i “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”3 h+ h4 ?2 m3 q' N' b
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; V, g3 ^# p! A 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。! ?9 s$ c, i2 O4 Y4 Y
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在( Z3 Z. ~2 h7 X
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。0 q( ?; ]# e$ O( T7 |
" \0 v4 q5 k `2 e# ]# b 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势4 [/ J" T3 P# T/ W: P+ W
" z8 d5 j8 _# t0 n3 f9 B 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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% W. U( s9 H0 G; [, t1 b8 M 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。2 H9 n, y- Z; \6 Z } i+ F9 A( V
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9 |" T6 {+ `( @3 ]% _ 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，& y J6 E. h' o& f/ ^" y
4 M3 P- z. B4 `! o$ c3 w市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”3 N' ^4 ~3 h# ]' n5 f
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