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[lastpost] => 2752631 64%的美国投资者认为加密货币存在极高风险 女性及年长者参与度低-转 1753719061 NBA专家
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。& f( t7 K+ o1 X, E
# G+ m# P$ G! d* H4 ?瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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3 l8 k+ Q, D/ T) G Q4 Z6 h' \衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
6 l' s- u2 b6 @$ c; p5 P1 f- y. F美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。* w* _* P- o4 k9 C
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益7 n) V) [+ [1 W( R2 K
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更$ |% K; q, f0 M
5 H; X* d' q( r4 P是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。4 M! c/ v2 l1 L. d8 o( }
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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# T7 C/ Y& \# q' h6 _( g7 [, D) P特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史! G; c! ^0 V; G- R
v7 \4 }* P+ J7 r& u! g6 C* e标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：- m% d I, s- d# m* a, g
9 h7 l3 k2 i7 y周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。9 {6 l! J0 X; O& B' ?1 P
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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收益率冲高回落。
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。! w0 e1 e$ K- \6 }4 n; {$ ]/ Y# w
" R& K* f, N! r7 U周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，# j, n; y0 Q# n! q: m+ [
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。"& F& t" {% q' [2 M' d
+ J( m2 P: ]" L+ H8 }" T3 n- D) A根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。( `$ J) |! {. V2 d. C: ~
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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