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[lastpost] => 2751066 IOSG Ventures:币股大作战 SBET和BTCM们是创新还是泡沫(转) 1753172145 万家灯火
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币,同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动,这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。9 ?' q* i- @/ M, B B; }
5 q3 }$ L" k' c5 W瑞银认为,一旦全球无风险利率出现波动,意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出:“我其实不担心# l- k& X3 `; b' G+ T- P
Q u5 A- n6 y- f& C衰退,我担心的是金融危机。”
, q8 M3 x- ^3 d {4 N# `0 V5 `3 Z' {美股周五重回涨势,看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复,但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性,尤其是美债的剧烈波动,让金
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7 v3 P( l- J* k; |; X融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。4 q5 a1 `3 t" n4 ?, _5 J( o# G: y
9 l! u" U! C4 ^4 e过去一周,美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升,美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看,标普500指数周涨超5%,美债收益$ B8 _. Q4 S8 p& l& F2 v9 j2 P
" Z5 P$ ~- b) Z" \率回到2月水平,比特币收盘走高,似乎一切如常。' x$ k6 V% H6 z
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然而令人不安的是,本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象,正是典型的新兴市场特征,而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国 W. {6 q" g$ A
0 H3 p+ W3 v& O# h: {! S长债出现如此大的波动,流动性危机似乎就在眼前,这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更% [) H. w9 F8 m! G" u* d
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是表示:
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率,如果全球无风险利率出现波动,它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见,美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币; L# V, {2 u! z W2 K
8 B8 X- I% M7 a8 R* t* K2 K& z特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心,也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史! E: ]) y, R ]
& E# ?7 T2 l0 \" Y/ d标准来看,本周都是一个惨烈的交易周,美股像是坐上了过山车,美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了:6 _0 ^& H) F) I: L7 i& ^, c
& P& e$ ?- W/ B9 M) \. S周一,因所谓的乌龙关税消息,美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震,纳指一度低位暴拉10%,美债跳水。
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周二,不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望,道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点,标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌,美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。, F! q" N9 v1 I+ r3 E/ e3 R
; F0 F) }/ z; \) T# Z6 ~8 r周三,美国暂缓部分关税,三大美股指至少收涨近8%,标普创2008年来最大涨幅,美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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收益率冲高回落。' u$ Z8 m* p) T+ |7 a
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周四,全球投资者逃离美国资产,美国股债汇三杀,纳指跌超4%,美元两年来最大日跌,黄金新高。
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7 f- t( X1 v& e7 G9 Z: d. d$ }; j周五,美联储暗示或出手,美股反弹收涨,但美债美元的跌势,警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。' ~5 y. W: ~9 ^. P
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) J! P( f7 [! qLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示:"美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场?毫无疑问,
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3 M+ [ [) ]- l I( } q% r是的,这正是我们所看到的。"8 p! H" \- ^- H" M7 D+ b, E
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根据数据显示,美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金,也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去& P# H: \0 F+ m; Z7 i- _3 T
# Y, E+ w+ b9 R' g# r+ ^( A- A4 V6 S年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外,几乎从未出现。. i9 e: }: t0 y! c$ W6 I
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( P1 m' t1 H2 w0 U) GRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言:"标普500指数像加密货币一样交易,这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调,但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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