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[lastpost] => 2746902 立法者为“加密货币周”做准备,比特币出现获利回吐(转) 1753330099 22301
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" {9 J) Z& O0 Y: S" S3 O$ T* y; n 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称,加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性,自诞生以来成长迅速,并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大,& W. j0 P3 X7 `5 _* T
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形成类似黄金的刚需托底,投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高,加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内,预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于* _8 r* G! G* K9 ]( |. ]" b; Y
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逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币,但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松,但需等待贸易、外交政
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策的确定性。8 o2 R) E9 {" v' H+ v
4 E0 t4 r+ C" ?" f/ t" A 中信证券主要观点如下:5 I) a& u. P& q5 ]
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加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币,具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。1 k( H; V; e$ }% f6 O
- `1 O* w/ w( ^+ _ ]' t2 M 自其诞生以来,市场成长迅速,例如比特币呈指数型增长。
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近期加密货币表现不佳,并未体现出避险属性。$ Y! _, q, b/ g* a2 h. O
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2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨,分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高;以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现+ \8 U. ~1 e$ t6 E# V( l) M% x
+ J5 } z- c9 T8 S不佳,与黄金走势背离,并未体现出避险属性。9 I; W: n" W; f2 k. W: r6 j7 J
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加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。
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从规模来看,加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场,增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看,两者都是集中度较高,且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明,均有利于价格的长期上行。2 u$ Q5 G. M/ y) O- }: o7 C7 o
# a& N6 L& p9 l2 d* M% N 加密货币开始出现刚性需求,形成与黄金类似的刚需托底,投机定价的格局。
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由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势,形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”,与黄金一样形成了刚需,以确保其难以出现泡沫! n5 D+ i# p( H1 q- x
0 M3 H8 v6 M+ o破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。
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短期内,加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金,因此表现背离。
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, V3 c2 O9 q% b& u9 n& H 我们认为根本的原因是1)社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2)由于加密货币高成长性,边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内,加密货币避险属性和投机属性
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6 R4 `9 q- ~$ p' C! V; y8 Z共存,后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。5 k- O- O+ s) R( S: m
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长期来看,加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间,最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化,驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。+ O. ^: U J" S$ N6 x( h
. B W% n; [9 q: J' v! Q 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续,预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上,黄金和加密货币的货币属性,都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣
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+ a- O5 f/ t+ ?/ K势,比特币不必然是未来的黄金,但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此,我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间,比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。
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2 J6 u. X, o1 W5 i7 y 展望未来四年,比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼,但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。
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本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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0 c* N" z* J! A+ `" X策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。1 {7 f$ w1 ^- c
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风险因素:. H1 M' g, j" e" e
+ [1 n+ u% X2 v 特朗普ZF政策超预期;美国联邦债务问题超预期;美联储货币政策宽松不及预期;地缘ZZ风险。
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