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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘1 _" {3 H# u' B' `& M
" o* s; }5 I! ~
初盘高水,豪门要防冷 {5 _7 ]9 ^ Y. Z$ R
* w3 `( i; q# ]' u+ U3 K+ n5 D M
1 S. m6 \: s! m$ h3 C/ v: {8 |/ [8 c2 g 09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:7 m9 O5 w, Y8 w6 C
英超主队
: O' q) s: \+ l7 f- h 胜:11场 79%! G! M9 z# \5 y% |
平:2场 14%
; ?% G# j4 ]% g/ I5 R 负:1场 7%) D" M h4 |0 R/ \9 ^4 I
# [0 d' G Z* j; ?6 I 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。
; p# S! s9 x) e2 z2 `
7 g; q; |; \3 o( o% F& i 一、初盘阶段3 w5 X+ ^1 \5 o) x! g
+ c b, C! f% F" g3 K7 s 具体到水位如下:, j- l7 `! ]& K/ f( K
初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
N2 L8 _, U. ~% \3 E 初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平
& U& g, l- K. x3 Y6 Q- y5 a 初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平
" h( y0 R* z& F& Y
- |8 A( `9 ?; i; q X+ J0 r 分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:
1 S+ j$ k4 O6 Q+ M6 H& Z0 c " N! _; j5 k0 b7 \- F5 Q8 q* l
维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00
3 a* v, ~- {! d5 G 热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.029 C1 `+ }- q+ v" Y/ U. q& N! J
热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00, k' f. s8 C2 [7 U3 k. O
% I8 G3 M2 W1 ^! _4 X5 J5 L 初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。
2 C- j" h9 J1 _, g 初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。
& E: l) l" E' N / D* t% |2 n, K3 A6 y% s! Y4 S* i
二、临场阶段& {8 C8 l/ X! \- k
( d8 a7 w7 g; j5 B5 s0 V2 k( E 具体到盘口如下:
+ K, w/ w2 I& O* \! @2 } 临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜
2 ~& C0 k: o8 V3 e+ P1 ?# W9 X 临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平
" A3 l9 D* H1 D+ [- ?7 j 分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:
. r6 f% K: c# w* R
. @1 A. ^4 f" H- B5 |1 G 热刺VS伯恩利" c% x# e4 r+ ?9 B0 v2 d; v! n
初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00
0 v U/ P v# f Z& B4 w9 Y 终盘:0.77球半1.09
; d8 X3 Z, G# I' ]: l" D
6 ^* g7 G r" z$ H Y9 N# d 临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。+ k6 e6 K. v" [( A
6 s" u. E8 q2 W3 m! Z 三、球队表现
. q: a: r' \' R0 P$ c* Q; I# p8 R 9 O2 Y* R0 [& d! d) J, q4 J) \
在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。
- Q" ?# q% C7 O9 I% z% u
2 {1 ?/ L' k* N% ~ 四、投注要点
, n. A" v- j! I- I ( F# t% @/ J, b4 K5 y: r
要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证
+ Z4 x' n1 T( M7 I( V 要点2:初盘中水,重点防平
% c! {/ T% |5 F5 W 要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能
' W* w4 E, _' h: H3 e- K' e1 l 要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
0 ]; v$ {; X" |0 d& L) b) f 要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
# ~! I9 @8 g2 p9 a6 d) ]; Z- | 要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任
% J0 M* P6 i2 d5 |" N9 y% X W 要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视/ D u) L: j, o! Y+ ^& K) }4 [( h
+ y, W* k* v: X! z" }# Z7 P5 x 对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法
% }+ A" K2 n; p( |: w. H 对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方 x4 c6 v; i+ W( S
面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。, X ^1 c6 @+ Z
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