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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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只跟踪一个联赛$ h4 J/ @6 K5 y6 n3 N( r

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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔: L* N6 ~8 m- \0 n  d
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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) ^1 x% a( @: E1 X偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。! r. g5 f: c: O, [# n2 ^6 v
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）0 R8 [* B7 S4 [, y

* C7 X2 @1 N6 M" x$ ]# V& U0 V4 U! `. P然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
+ I5 {- r, W, U9 |( v1 Q. Y# Z* I: u
; s- X; J/ l/ O( a( ]4 v就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱1 m2 C( c1 Y$ m( r/ p  s) g1 g& j, |

6 L8 k- |% w/ b  Y; E% D4 w8 @6 k当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目- Y; r1 z! l$ I+ f" I3 y

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/ ~) a+ ^; n4 Z: b% }5 ]3 ?亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
& X( {) {- w7 \& ?  ]8 [
2 S( H$ `  B! |! q6 E而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，! ?% `; x# W+ d! N# L

. l5 w2 r2 x9 R2 z$ z但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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, g/ h, m* M6 B: W1 a! S- J理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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, v) u! |5 v+ t排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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$ @6 `$ v/ d4 `1 m9 t但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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# n8 w& G5 ]) Y; m% \* `! w这比买国债存银行合算。
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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" r3 B( a: M# Q2 u几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。/ e1 m3 n# G7 S! T; p( G8 v# c
3 M" k3 ~! i5 `) U4 O, x% ]" u
放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，( b, H5 U0 q' Q  e  B' N" P

/ X# P  z! R; z2 f7 A就是回避了大的亏损，9 m1 L+ |- y* s  h$ L' m
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，3 K9 W8 y7 X8 w1 {9 L1 s0 `

, c6 Z" \% t' e. O, Y回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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