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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 4 }0 `. z- }- ^+ N7 r$ b
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其实原文标题不是这样的5 W: N0 x/ u& Q6 n( g: O, t
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!+ l# V% F) j% |7 ^: N3 F2 p% `
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...' |+ i' Q. N3 `. Z) |7 a2 J' ?
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
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# a" n2 R0 ]7 d) D* F! p B& P 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
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c% F+ `8 e3 \' a% D# i 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」: A* z2 a L* ~" G0 \3 g
* U6 f% N- _ l' m. k「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 * y3 i$ M n; N
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
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上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。! k( m3 `. [3 X; y$ |" E) M
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接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，/ [3 a6 ]1 q0 ~$ D' g
因此铜板较容易出现正面。
3 Q; t4 t, j9 g" F5 N' M长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
! _0 m) K* w6 k2 u/ z4 {因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
9 ^+ j3 Q' G$ t9 S3 D5 l! S心想赢定了。
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5 D; C O0 [6 l( Y; p* {+ B( G v, E没想到开始不到半刻钟，1 X. c: T) W1 g8 Z7 E
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」1 B: I$ D/ m3 N0 m. h) }
1 D' r9 T+ ~0 P- M4 r赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，) U, S0 c* X0 {0 v5 L+ R
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
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赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
( a4 l0 H1 C, T3 `$ o9 X他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
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上帝回答道：: Q" j- ?4 x2 g: l5 z4 l8 S
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」0 E; y/ E$ p$ C2 C" N1 O) M& q
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」( `8 @) ^0 s7 F$ k8 q
「而不是先发生在我身上。」; h5 d) v% c* h' D; k, _
/ s# g# ]9 U' M1 z5 R1 g 赌徒恍然大悟，: Y, W6 o3 k; o; g( t
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
% O/ g) M+ T8 }/ x/ P0 p% }竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！4 ?& ]8 B' j8 ^# ~1 x- q
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」! `2 ]4 t0 Y ?; I$ M6 k$ Y
上帝说完便不见踪影。
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一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
7 Z+ `% I% X. h+ ?2 |- J若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
8 z6 D2 T1 o, Y2 H1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
- V4 Z) U- B5 N9 l- h9 N& N$ Z对赌徒十分有利。9 { ]4 X- X: x: \! ?
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但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
1 @& X$ x, L% b2 R/ w- V: j$ ~在还没掷到1000次之前，& b: t7 {& W% q6 V
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。' S2 U0 a# h3 s' t8 s& u) Y9 v
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赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
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事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。1 }2 ~8 o+ }$ j. D, R! g- D, m
2 ^" q% f* n, d: x( {* w& p8 b 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板， l$ a$ F9 }& M# F$ D% O
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ : b% M8 H1 f3 e3 y9 E. g
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