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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
; ~; Q3 A( g# ]余勋也不例外、 : ~3 K" i& ]6 L: {
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
7 }) n8 t# ?' z0 X }是保经济的重要决策！
1 z3 |& P. Q5 H T( }这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
, S* E5 K7 l5 a @ J低点26700-32400、 % k$ @8 M2 K7 V
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
/ y, y2 \# z+ {但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
& l& Q6 a- S* I+ B) p4 M大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 4 \$ I4 S8 Q( W& O+ W5 M
涨幅就已回撤过半！ 1 P% ]+ r- t; Q0 Z" ]' G
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
; h4 c! W, |% R7 t: L: l# f不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 # p, U% ~' @2 i; B! u5 H
其次、
% o# `6 d0 ]4 n) H. m9 h" ]: F缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 V" Y- o% b( r
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
6 ^2 y1 B( C& J- M# N. j5 m等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 s, f- c0 S% K9 _ k b
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 1 W( ]4 ~$ P. f8 ? B' t" }8 b
但回到币圈、 : N( U' R$ a$ Q* R- R
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 2 g2 ?* ?0 N$ o" f X4 s _
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
# [; F5 S2 J# T3 O1 [( c而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 + H; e8 |" X8 D! |
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
4 v5 x2 ]0 |8 G6 ]9 b缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 3 q% f. V/ g/ U0 J& |
对当前的底部、影响有限。
# W' }9 J4 Q h1 T: C2 X最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 . z' F5 ?( J$ s3 K' H
所以27000、即是 6 c9 v7 ?- ] q2 |) }) W
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） + f% }4 m7 w$ ~7 Z( Q* U! T
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
6 \- A/ U, @% \也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 + f7 [+ Q+ o2 Q% A5 [; F
由此得出的结论是、 / x5 ?+ Z2 Y* g* ~
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 - E4 I3 l! l! Z" T
点位不会出现太大偏离。 U O7 U7 K3 x% y8 V; I k
综合以上、 - D" S% {4 ` y* b0 `- o& |
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 # _. C8 Q% R: Y# e' w; Q
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
8 e9 Z+ C+ d6 l2 d8 c$ c那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
- u5 ]. U) v* G& I3 i抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 # [2 j- }; N* W1 X! ?
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
) W. a) w# O( v) F即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 9 R$ N, k7 L% N" f3 i& w
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
$ [$ \9 L3 [6 d& A夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 $ v! w: \1 f4 e2 W- t
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
0 d6 ]) \5 d/ f4 G逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
0 G' l6 l' p, j5 z. Y高空需至31700-32000间布局、
8 q7 f9 ^7 H, N3 X6 Z9 N反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
0 {, o/ m8 t" K2 n5 T: r1 Y得不偿失。
9 Q: w3 s/ b4 \8 s: q9 `- F来源：金色财经 |
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