Array
(
[fid] => 6974
[description] => 专注于币圈最新最快资讯，数字货币应用及知识普及
[password] =>
[icon] => b1/common_6974_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 1
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 10
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] => 实习版主1
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[1590] => 论坛公告
[1752] => 公司优惠
[1603] => 虚拟币交流
[1753] => 数字钱包
[1754] => 虚拟币存提
[1755] => 交易所
[1655] => 虚拟币资讯
[1756] => 银行卡
[1757] => 第三方支付
[1760] => 币圈大佬
[1758] => 科技前沿
[1759] => 天策嗨聊
[1661] => 入驻合作
)
[icons] => Array
(
[1590] =>
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] =>
[1661] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[1590] => 1
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] => 1
[1661] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6729
[type] => forum
[name] => 虚拟币讨论大厅
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 3
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 28999
[posts] => 473095
[todayposts] => 3
[yesterdayposts] => 282
[rank] => 2
[oldrank] => 2
[lastpost] => 2787756 IG首席分析师预计，美联储本周降息后，比特币将出现反弹。（转） 1765210494 jackcool1011
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 21
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 1
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 3
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
[复制链接]
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 分钟
本月在线: 分钟
|
|
|
在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 : c( J& |8 F+ F; A$ W
余勋也不例外、 2 _4 u4 k( j! Y+ l
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 ' ~5 t& K( W/ w3 N, Z- e* d' B
是保经济的重要决策！
/ d8 J2 M' f9 `, u/ P4 v1 n这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
5 ~# g" L# O: I低点26700-32400、
# ^% X8 P" {) ?. q2 A, ~2 @反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
& v- Q4 ?. m2 {& r. Y3 R' D8 L$ u但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 o1 @. f) e* M! ]3 y2 x9 S
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 ) r- a7 y! m/ n
涨幅就已回撤过半！
" T# r' x r8 A! B所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
9 r) h: W+ d: D, Y _1 Q' F不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 - P/ Y$ {; h+ {, i( s/ @' {
其次、 4 f+ W/ i; U* z) j+ _9 G
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
J0 w6 L' j) @# d% g# L4 A每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
2 q- }: i1 Y7 E& y# `等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
* c' f" N: a9 I. y) ?" t/ N' }美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 * s' E! a% f/ V3 U# o9 H
但回到币圈、
: H0 m3 G" Y% q e- r9 y去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
! }9 A0 z& @4 ^% V8 _在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
8 l, m8 P' p8 K9 L. M; }: g而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 1 b6 P) Q2 k- N- J! @* B! @
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
0 K0 Y& ^$ a& E1 @; T) d5 k, g" m& A+ b缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
6 e2 f c8 E9 s0 v对当前的底部、影响有限。 - ]% f) G( t, O/ A1 c* d! t
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
! r5 u! {3 s6 \5 H h所以27000、即是 + f w1 _; O w/ m1 p/ J2 g! R
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
4 G1 o0 B3 G! J同时还是去年放水初期低点、
0 e$ v4 v) u2 x0 ]也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
" R" Y \2 X/ O @7 k0 N$ |由此得出的结论是、
! c9 Y3 U& ?+ X9 Y: X! ^# a加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
9 l9 ?+ Q. X% _; D8 o1 K点位不会出现太大偏离。
+ \# w# U( _9 Q3 g2 I综合以上、
9 G' Q3 C: P' S2 Z2 w美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 5 { ?2 C& l6 k3 R+ }/ g- X
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 ' b" f+ o- Z$ f& h/ f4 W
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 5 o. E& y, d( F- M# B- b8 j$ B% ]
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 1 d2 P9 P$ V. L0 ^; Z8 z
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 , ^( H& h' Y$ N Y
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 4 {( x- G4 S/ D k, C. b
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
: a, A& @, {1 S) d- |6 N夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 ; z+ @2 O0 F4 {( J* w- {
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
# w% ]% X: O' b8 ]% `逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
, L- \- b) Y1 Q1 U" B6 t高空需至31700-32000间布局、 ( ?( `/ h2 T7 X1 T
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
0 o' P, x/ S6 i; H$ Z# ^$ m# l2 ]得不偿失。
% |3 G4 H" e) ^8 B2 _" G9 n8 l来源：金色财经 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
