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[lastpost] => 2771072 Polymarket重返美国，预测市场的下一个机会在哪里？（转） 1759520374 一帆风顺发
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
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3 @% D( M" T- [认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，3 E; n0 T- V- t( s
( v4 N6 a2 O5 x. a) J而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富% ^' G7 l* S2 s# U7 k' p5 w, L
" R: D/ h8 P) |9 A' W- X0 W" m的千禧一代。
- h( M8 x$ l/ J) _' e从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
0 p, E* M2 {- [2 A8 w4 g" P9 j D6 k( [( w" s. W) ^. L
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“2 \& e5 d& b B
1 K/ K2 I! F) R* R8 u k: u 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加8 p( n. j# B' o, q! G) ?
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密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据2 f0 x3 b( q, H5 o# T8 G
% n% U% o% A4 S' n. s- M
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成/ L. K& T( s4 M% P5 L1 f x {
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的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
/ F8 d8 J* d; b2 ` V4 i5 i7 c U; W! e0 h, g
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；, ?* V& {" {, k2 P& J$ y1 z- }
9 g( E5 Q4 J- z$ q' P! N10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
x) k6 y1 d9 e; O' G# `' M- P: p- C, f- h5 w
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
7 K0 {* e% C- j* l2 G$ }- N4 h0 V6 W8 |# O9 e
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
8 l6 M1 o0 ^+ b9 ] p3 m9 @8 O* X2 u3 D# Z# V$ U U! g; K
息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。2 _% f' e! R* [5 k3 `5 N# H+ R
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与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
9 M4 i! a7 F( k5 m/ W, ?' R
3 D+ y; a8 s0 [. }# c$ p3 D世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
9 Z( u% a- o& [ U
% C9 E7 c" o& |! l传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不6 T0 A! T( d) f, e7 E
2 j& J0 p' i! s9 |
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
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9 T. q7 V* A& U2 k0 _代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成9 X$ G; `' W' b
4 h* B$ U& g% T7 \本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
: Z+ |7 ^" [: b" z5 o
9 v" O+ R5 _/ T! m: d; W系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
& k6 C& }0 F* t) ^, k* P& o& }. s6 ^! C
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
4 N8 y9 B4 d3 C) [3 ]7 X: I+ o, v+ v) ?2 \8 u7 G9 Q' ]# X; M
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
9 h! ~9 O2 D e1 g% ? _) v
! U% H7 q/ Q z! k- n; @/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
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