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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘" e8 L; K& b4 b+ x! b; ?
     
0 o  t" K  Y$ ~5 n  ~2 m  p     平手中水,主队有利
) ]3 S% W6 x1 m4 `7 X& K     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
- ^( Y( v# f. r0 x     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:8 T- J8 t8 h( Q' H7 F
     英超主队
  Y# `3 W' A+ p0 t1 C     胜:13场 48%
' }6 D  b; e7 i1 i$ a     平:5场 17%. N8 a, u8 o3 m
     负:9场 35%* u8 b1 k4 p) n+ `" Z$ b- Z& R
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。! _% d- D; U3 S3 _2 u7 |6 d2 E
     0 V: G0 P% n1 o
     一、初盘阶段
6 `6 g: h2 L+ K' O) K* B     具体到水位如下:
1 b$ O/ {6 Q" G4 F$ d) l* g     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负' {" M! @# f. p1 x: o4 E4 Y
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负2 n7 o# h" q; Y3 m) J' ~
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
$ M* I, ^# R! [# a; R     
7 W. n5 _6 h( a, T6 t     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。+ P& d6 n* o1 d( _9 E8 p8 j  y* h2 T8 \
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。6 ?$ s1 C7 y8 ]2 a! s
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。  m* ?5 y: ^4 w3 z  x1 T
     7 K) N% v( U- C0 R8 }' w
     二、临场阶段
; D: k7 X$ |1 Y. J* m4 N; k     5 l+ G7 s; }( @& L2 A' P6 `! Z) L
     具体到变盘和水位如下:& N, I+ P8 K+ q
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负5 ]  q0 [; g7 L) Q0 c1 K) C
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
) A% l, c3 P5 J1 ^( H* e( ?& M     
: U. P; R$ x6 G3 q$ V     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。- n$ K3 {3 @7 c
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:& g7 b# B& [% G" Y: f
     
; N5 I- E1 t- d5 H     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
  S% L9 D) d& L/ Y' S1 z     初盘:0.82平手1.04, \6 }+ {  \7 k% Q4 \2 a; T
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
0 n2 g% ]' u8 d6 F, {* K     / M7 O0 u) a2 S
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
& W  F3 P' t5 A     初盘:0.76平手1.10
& n7 w; s5 N# ]! q% T     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.915 l5 H, i) f4 P5 o# }# A- y
     , B+ N$ w" Q3 |+ C' N/ G
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技1 O! b$ R3 L7 w* p2 q
     初盘:0.82平手1.043 y0 {1 d# ^4 P# D
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98' V  X% G8 [  d5 o' @  I. [
     
+ @: l* w* v3 s: E     伯恩利2-1西汉姆8 C  o- Z8 Z' q1 H) ?4 ?3 Q- L
     初盘:0.88平手0.98# ?; L6 i0 Y) }! M+ C! C. I) [, U
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74! C, D+ P( @/ j+ ~" r0 g
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。+ h1 u7 J$ n: M" `5 w6 ]
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。8 T7 ?% d+ `9 ]- Q- o! ~
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
0 Z0 g2 z6 y' j0 ]  l+ I6 J  I# _7 B     7 Z$ e6 N, a4 z9 N) V7 k- ^7 P
     三、球队表现
* |% X" m8 E3 o* d3 `& v$ o     
6 Q# e$ i( A1 {, ^+ A9 [1 {     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
/ y( x( m+ u9 X0 P. ~# k- S     
# a1 k* M7 f5 n0 N/ P; J' h     四、投注要点
$ W7 C/ ~. s. q' E' c8 d, R: C# [9 `     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
4 h% R  H- L, v5 S: F! I$ @     要点2:平手降盘、走两头2 g* e$ \& @. t! I
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
1 ~. j: P, g$ u9 h  E' y     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
, w( W  p4 d; D" j# b     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任' F0 f$ @# E' W$ J9 s% j
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
! {* ]/ b4 T- F$ b' P     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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