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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。7 D! J0 d# x0 u8 W5 G
/ \4 G9 ~# E- c7 K% ]* K4 b, y
1 C" ~0 e5 O( c2 \ z7 R' W6 @
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 1 Y$ s3 j% n. ?8 Y" q- A- o- Y
/ k/ O( T' s$ w7 n8 }* n2 x- ^很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?1 `% z$ @+ J9 l* Z4 ?3 J4 g
, D1 b( n8 X5 U" ]% [9 M! r答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
# Q# A% N6 G; y5 u8 c" h$ r u1 _' r1 D5 V) @
* q0 F# t* D, i: w1 ]以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性 i" z, H3 B; Z) c+ d) u
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。* a$ M5 ? k2 P. ~
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增值% S& _% O0 I6 C& l" a
! m3 X0 _- g+ T6 z; M5 g; C- W0 q许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。" q% c- r) l+ ~/ A/ ?
4 ` Q- T3 m5 n0 J3 k' O你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?1 B1 t4 N3 s! `: n
9 w' U4 Y9 }# y( r4 s+ R- ha) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
$ Q0 ~6 h s* Z) O! s0 {4 h' ]! `5 E3 e& C- {( }
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
: e0 |7 G- ~) T! d, t60%的机会你会一无所有
# T! v! Q( }: N F3 w! V3 M/ I( Q预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 + t# G9 R8 }# S5 q; h
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。" [8 r; G' C1 h3 A7 S
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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* J6 N6 C; m; t* ^" O凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。$ m! k; R# C$ s& S9 D* h8 i
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)$ C9 h- x( Q; i: l8 J9 L
3 w. a1 @3 R) D) JA=博彩资金
. W# H: |2 l( o- c, W# [; q4 ?P=获胜机会
2 z! h% a x9 I; C' MO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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+ {0 l: R& ~, I- z' |首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。% v% f3 l7 a: b. n5 z
, i4 x+ p1 i' l0 Z' M好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)8 E |9 p% w2 I0 F+ F5 B
1 R1 r0 _( v" S# mA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3). z5 _ w( C* M" c
r' |3 Q' h: T+ u1 @A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1
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. e$ I3 y* `0 L" {/ j# }结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去( \6 Q) h% }( I! a6 A# P! l7 P
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)# l, X o1 s: v
) k5 J- y; T3 E" w2 Z% {# eA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)6 `. R3 p$ S3 U% l: v m& ^2 S- Z, F
0 I- _: y' V r8 _0 I; ~A= -0.2 : P) s9 U' {& ]! J
3 U2 n P9 u7 W( V! ?) D: W% x9 v结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好' q4 N( f# l* j% m' n, ^6 z7 {
, I9 S6 r" l0 o7 B; s2 b第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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