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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
/ f' b2 ^$ [% S8 b/ f
" x/ u: W6 ^4 Q, P* N- b& u' b( `& s1 V7 @/ l& n1 G* V
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
& T* o6 A0 h: ^/ s6 j7 o. ^( G# ?( B. }9 _. h8 t
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:; p' b7 V+ O' b A9 z
* ?0 U. r/ q2 v9 Z5 t3 t3 g* P
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% " T. J m( L8 |
5 D) J% M1 y! h) v0 O
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
5 J+ i/ C4 J; \' e6 _2 {3 E
- z( I* J2 X! H答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)3 C# D. B+ o/ ~& p1 `. J" @3 G
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& F9 S; f) i% \8 E8 Y- a以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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. ~$ S- q& h$ a) p
盈利可能性
; U* ~" B+ G3 Z9 z( { `
* S9 u$ n0 l9 K对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。/ L( `% R' S5 v. b' U; H" y' R. E8 R
: W- u: ]* c6 w" q7 |0 g& t增值' L: M% x: T, ^) y! w
5 e7 s' _6 G6 b5 p; J许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。. |7 p9 b1 M" |; C$ H
! ?- z% E k# s f. Y1 C你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢? U8 r/ u! s* E# Q
% o, k C9 I! z( y) Q+ a1 W! g9 E; da) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
' q" {0 O* O4 a. L' ?. [" T; q! ]/ {, X q1 l1 J0 t1 O) M2 m2 e
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么. r9 I5 O9 y6 o4 m/ Q
3 Q/ ?4 t( G/ _! _: L' K5 h
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润% V i9 n) g! e" G, o
60%的机会你会一无所有
9 p& P5 r( L' f+ e; H ~1 }4 \6 Z( B预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
" Y* ]0 G8 ^2 h( ^1 R) L$ ?5 X' J) w* ~由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。+ a$ t3 N- {7 I- k( n+ W3 H
: \$ P3 O! D w b基于增值的投注9 x; q. u+ o d9 `: |! f2 E
7 d. E# I& h8 V
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。; a! [1 W: x) y
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)4 Q. s0 A/ U* _/ ^8 p
' A# M* v# W5 m' D$ H( A1 UA=博彩资金7 t/ ~: _/ o3 |3 N) ^9 c* J( k: }9 }0 y
P=获胜机会
6 x/ a! W* K. K6 |$ K3 `4 kO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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2 @9 W- g8 o" [. w首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。4 v% C7 a* _7 l* A4 r
5 x! p! f3 j+ j- q9 Z! |$ a好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)! w+ a4 F8 [( }
T! X6 U+ h. G# yA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5), N! V# d# a$ x4 q% ^" ~
+ X l' C {8 H& NA=0
3 C/ f# w$ x- _ B s3 B3 y4 u* L m& N8 Q
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
2 b; ~) S+ R' h+ } w# a8 D. e, q @) }2 a5 i( Y& m
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)9 B1 a- H r8 T8 S! X9 k/ u
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A=0.1. x8 s0 e3 b; a& ?/ i
4 t# G& D6 \. C% _, @, a- p结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去, e1 q3 _9 t$ B) l8 m' `# v
6 s# I0 \- h( [5 ^6 j, D8 Y0 U3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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- |2 e+ ]6 d. m+ L) x9 F9 oA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
6 g3 n; E, B* Y/ J$ Y
: ?) f! d% u1 E$ |3 i+ [) v% m1 pA= -0.2
" \' W" l' j" z5 B( p/ m3 }# U! q$ i+ w5 j5 K
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好! ?/ V; q) o- q7 U2 ~2 s' X# T; V* O
, N$ m6 r% _! N% }6 c, G第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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