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[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
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此帖转贴,作者wloo (凉咖啡)$ M. O, V# a$ o% k. G
Dubo不是好东西,盲目的赌真的会让你倾家荡产。但是如果你真能掌握其中某些实/ K4 h) b. h- Z- ]0 k+ j' d
质,结果也许真的会大不一样。, h1 L% p; A3 e
一个玩21点的,在掌握了提高3%的赢牌机率技术后,他一个晚上就能赢走90万多
V9 M. e: x/ {& C; r" m美元8 ^/ S. q k% O+ F: W; l" D* I
他凭自己的技术,要养家糊口是不成问题的。要说华尔街那些人能在某种程度上掌: Z9 Q7 D, r/ P! s
控国家经济,也是事实。他们所做的某些工作跟赌有紧密联系的。所以说,小赌可
! l) J8 E$ E- U l以养家糊口,大赌可以救国救民,也不能算是痴人梦话。
* O3 g: ^2 `6 T( _+ `3 F7 FDubo有多种,这里只说赌彩,就是玩彩票。 有人说,彩票是愚者的Dubo,智者的游5 ]( L8 d) \% P% v0 @0 Z2 b
戏,我赞承这种说法。
0 E3 m6 T; @* P! A, D1 J现在还没听说过什么人能用玩彩来养家糊口、救国救民,如果真能玩到这种境界,9 ~/ F1 l% L/ H2 T( A
也算世界状元了!但如果你非赌不可,就必须首先具备成熟的心理素质。
: t+ ~; c4 S: n9 r. O! Q2 \首先应该面对的是关于彩票公证性的挑战。
, N6 b' N% T X, p0 y8 ~ X) S玩彩前,每个人都要先问一个问题:彩票公司公正吗?出号真的是随机的吗?
; j$ J9 R8 Q$ X8 f, ^& B& J1 P! \4 A疑问1:现在世界上主要国家(包括加拿大,不包括天朝)的彩票公司都在用一种- t' x$ }5 s, [
G-tech技术保护,不敢对G-tech多说什么,只是在下面列出很多彩票玩家经常提出- m! e5 s5 M N. @1 Q
的一些与G-teck 有关的问题:) G: [, Y8 q( D5 c6 e( Q8 T: |
* Why one organization called “G-TECH” behind the world lotteries?2 G) T# N, l* p# c+ R+ x" A* x; h9 }& U
Is it because those world governments cannot afford to buy the
! J+ q# F- C4 u) z0 _) Bequipment outright unless G-TECH supplies it to them?1 o0 I/ b8 s; h$ t J
* Why G-TECH collect percentage of the profit from the local operators?6 @/ @2 C1 t& X) A$ n
* What more is in to lotteries apart from Machines and Balls?& v7 g- N/ Z: W, h/ H6 m
Could it be software involved?
" p8 }7 L7 I i* s" o, P* Why world data such as UK, France, Germany, Spain and even USA have the
& j E1 i+ s. k2 D- Usame resemblance but never and ever match entirely?
( H6 Q/ ~, T ^6 S# ~* Why satellite terminals are involved if the draws are taking place locally,: J0 [( i3 b& Z
is it because to transfer data back to G-TECH for calculations?3 D; z4 P! J& T) s
* Why there is a minimum of half hour interval from the shut down of terminals
+ `6 k5 d8 S8 T. r0 Mto the time draw takes place, what the organizers do during this time?
7 p2 b7 V7 X: e3 `7 E. m3 Z. d. H* How can the local organization running the lottery like Camelot in UK can take
5 c, t; e9 {7 L0 x6 ? etheir share of sales (%50 I believe) before the draw takes place especially; l i N9 L0 o! S: ]8 o
where there is a minimum prize of £10 guaranteed? ? How do they know how9 y: ]5 \5 ]4 B* S' g3 i
many $10 winners there are to calculate their sums when there is a possibility" c& c" c' r& n" s! k( i1 o
of the number of £10 winners exceed from the total sales?
/ `* e# k+ k- k** 注:据说G-tect理论需要30分钟去完成某些“优化”计算) s' t s0 M6 l4 E. [
** 注:理论上讲,过去的中奖号码最多在4500期后就会出现首次重复。0 d3 D2 D' j6 w2 G+ Y
疑问2:曾有人在某彩票玩家网站上贴出下面文字,后来经有心人查证,其作者IP
) \7 |& B% r5 a: ]似乎是控制加拿大649、Super7的彩票公司,就是说是彩票公司内部的人发出的...
0 i$ [4 G! c4 `' U# BWinning numbers how there are selected% w8 d& h# V1 @! k0 T
This is the way we select the winning numbers:
" O& f) E/ L& {0 m% Z9 XSelect "XXX' Numbers_set from Played_numbers
+ d: }& e4 }" Ywhere Province_of_played='XXX' and city_of_played='XXX" and time_of_played='XXX'8 ~3 s5 v. @9 x
and Method_of_Played='XXXX'
) \5 x, Q: b: N0 \" H# I) n ]+ QOn each ticket we record the place, the time and the way the numbers have been selected.
& r. ~) T U v% QWe run this query against all played sets.+ Y2 z9 z0 n+ R" @
We then feed the drawing machine with the results, the outcome will always be what we want.6 F0 h8 I `) g, v: t5 {8 s
For example if we want to have a single winner from Ontario, who played quick pick we run
+ _6 _7 b9 C& X3 ?+ i' I5 l7 F( g( M4 Pthe following query:9 E5 z& J c Z0 |$ E ~
Select unique numbers_set from played_numbers
) y1 R( g/ x& l4 jwhere province_of_played='Ontario' and method_of_played='quick pick';
9 S U* y( i9 v. a) N8 s1 MIt just takes less than 5 minutes to get the results.
2 O( W7 M! o1 VWe prefer players wo play quick pick because our machine predict the numbers.
" r5 U+ [2 G) z( t9 O3 oIf we do not want a winner we run the following query:
: c+ c$ U. s# tSelect unique numbers_set from all_numbers_set where numbers_set not in played_numbers;; u, ~2 w6 [! [' N; U0 ^/ p3 f1 X) F, C
上述英文是原文,没经过任何改动。" S8 Q! B. T6 a; ^
虽然此帖没明说是用在何种彩票上,但后来因为其作者IP的曝光(彩票公司内部人),
& q' E T: {3 e Y3 ?很让人怀疑加拿大649、Super7的公正性。如果这是真的,很恐怖。8 L% }4 K" z6 X6 h% { h5 b
疑问3:为什么现在加拿大彩票公司不实况转播摇奖过程,为什么加拿大彩票公司# D/ ]( g, T+ m
在停止售票1个半小时后才开始摇奖,而且每次摇奖只有几个人参与(一两个摇奖
9 a0 P& Q0 y' Z( L人员加三两个摄录的技术人员)?% d9 X& ?% K) t4 z* R6 r
为什么摇奖过程没有法律公证人员参与、证实?为什么所有玩家购买号不能在摇奖3 I$ [: j7 a- ?( N: K
前刻在一张非重写的光盘上(体现公正性方法之一)?等等,很多问题。
9 P( R% c& R6 Y疑问4:为什么大多数情况下,“中奖者”信息不公开?(有人指出有很多未曝光的重
* S; M( T- P0 f: A1 H# O复中彩者)
$ |. _7 d; j& p7 a: A8 j; p% K, @为什么几年前安省649出号与同期加拿大649出号极其相像,远远超过其理论上的; o0 I$ F) O8 y2 |4 E
可能性?; t4 Z1 x; q' k+ o$ ]8 q1 R
疑问5:为什么彩票公司很多公开年薪超过10万的工作人员,几乎所有人公开的Taxable& a9 g5 Z! Q7 K& U1 V* I
Benefits只有不到200元?不用上税的Benefits有多少?9 ]# V* ?5 D! E! m D1 z
下面附件里包括部分2003年OLGC年薪超过10万的Name、Position、Salary、
2 m/ t6 T$ y: rTaxable Benefits。其实还有很多的疑问,但以上的疑问足以使一个成熟的人望而# y4 W! @/ X/ m1 V; a, h: H8 E
止步。我个人的感觉,相比之下真正公正的彩票是天朝的彩票。如果你有成熟的心9 l2 d* c% v+ f- m; f' E4 N
理素质包容以上疑问,并且还坚持非赌不可,那么你还需要了解一些有关彩票的最
9 Z+ e- _) c4 E& O% Q基本的知识。+ A* I. p e9 {& c
应该承认,通过适当的分析,是可以大幅度提高中奖机率的。虽然那个玩21点的,% N: l( x! a1 {% Y* S+ X8 I+ W
在掌握了提高3%的赢牌机率技术后,一个晚上就能赢走90万多美元,但是对彩票
- ]8 z' z! `$ p% O, Z; c而言,却完全不是这样。其实对彩票研究而言,提高3%的中奖机率并不困难。比
/ d& e) ^, o% a2 i a* Q0 j7 u如几周前,某人给出20个数字,说明是其后10次加拿大649最佳候选号。结果中5! Y. z* b" H9 \! d
个(或以上)中奖号至少3次以上。; y% ~$ J( |! C V. s# u6 g
理论上,49选20中5的几率是3.2153%,此人的结果提高30%以上的中奖机率。可; y. b W8 W8 I% f. t5 k4 O
结果是他自己最多中了10块钱。原因很简单,彩票可能性的数据量太大,除了专业& w% f/ j0 P) a$ H
玩彩的,没有人会每期投入几十万。: a4 V, X" b! x% ~ f
20选6有38760种可能,20选5加另外29选1有449616种可能,每期花$976752,- I4 c0 f. J- a7 U1 [" o
似乎专业玩彩的也不敢这样投。结论是即使你提高了30%的中奖机率,尤其是没有: t N2 p9 G. T
人敢100%保证它的号能每次都达到30%的中5个机率,如果每次买全可能号码,最' @, C: B5 Z8 ~9 \
后你还有70%的机率是赔。0 u/ a3 G5 N! R- Z) Z% j
即使用旋转矩阵选号,20中5保3也要20个以上,仍然赔。如果不自己选号,去quick6 o$ M- {' C: {' \6 j
pick,就是机选,那你几乎是没有什么机会的,即使是10块钱,你也会很难得到。
# t: x+ U$ m! y$ \, Z* ?( A且不说上面提到的G-tech保护,首先,理论上的中奖机率就少得很。理论上的机率+ q& M, p; A; _% V ~- l
也不保证100%中奖机率。
" }' r7 }7 S" o- d3 c; ?; b* H2 h举个具体的649的例子,中3的机率大概是1.765%(或1/57),但你买57张彩票,
/ P8 @+ e8 X$ C3 F6 J( r却不能100%的保证中3。如要100%的保证中3,现在的世界纪录是163,就是最少 C9 D1 F% @0 L4 X, R
买163张彩票(当然按特定组合了),才能100%的保证你中3个。如果你老能设计. K& W- h* s5 S g+ {
一种组合,用低于163的数额就能保证中3,可以去参加Lottery Wheeling
2 ~5 E% u& [$ ~, t/ u+ EChallenge,也弄个青史留名。当然,这特殊的163张彩号组合,肯定不会受G-tech
9 V. Q. P) I5 X* D ~; Y/ \影响。问题是用163张彩票,$326,去赌$10奖金是否值得。+ E3 ^ P) ?4 O5 H
如果在这时你老还是非赌不可,那么该如何赌呢?不同的人有不同的技术,如果你
2 u* f4 x* g A8 J; J9 u5 L/ L没有白胡子老头托梦告诉你中奖号码,只能多在历史数据里下功夫了。
! A9 V. h& o1 e' X* R1 h说到彩票研究,会有很多人说是痴心妄想。
5 [' x, L+ d% E1 a8 r明白人会用概率理论来说明彩票是不可预测;
# f$ O- R9 j7 y( H( w& v+ G6 G5 H* c' c不明白人会说,如果你能预测,就先来中几千万;
( V* i. W! }! K& k$ v, G不明不白的人会说,中大奖的人都活不长,等等。
8 P2 A! m8 Q6 B& V, N- S且不管这些不同人的心态,仅对彩票本身而论,要研究彩票,只能从历史数据着手,
$ |/ ?. L/ y: T" c1 ~" d2 i5 n0 Y前提是你要承认历史数据与下期中奖号码有某些联系。6 h0 [7 l* l& w. @1 B
比如说第2527期彩票中奖号码是20 21 22 29 39 41,那么理论上第2528期的中奖
& l% i6 {0 f4 a5 ]" U+ `3 G号码于上期没有任何重复数字的几率是43.6%,有一个重复数字的几率是41.3%。
. g, Q$ h) y5 I$ Q' p: x对所有前2527期结果统计表明,每期与前一期没有重复数字的次数是1086,重复/ y4 U( D' K( E) F/ ]) t
1的次数是:1047。另一方面,每期与20 21 22 29 39 41比较,没有重复数字的次
# ~6 C$ x% Z; ]! E4 i6 Q( R数是1102,重复1的次数是:1040。这些统计结果显示基本与理论结果一致。6 W% h* Z" t8 q* h
明白人知道这里我想说明什么。; q T+ I2 n8 ^+ H
在第2528期中,不同的组合,其出现的机率是不一致的。比如,与2527期重复2或! @8 A" [$ i( f6 X% G" E+ h
大于2的组合,其出现机率要小于15.1%。承认历史数据与下期中奖号码有一定联系% U' k. r6 Z0 a! ^' t/ }4 r
后,你可以设计不同的参数去分析,其中某些是非常有效的。大家分析同一个对象,
% i# x- d4 I+ ^, t, p& ^但具体方法不同,其结论有天地之差。比如国内很多“专家”出书,分析奇偶,目前为
( ?6 f7 k7 k/ d. H止,没看到任何实用的分析方法。简单的通过近期奇数个数、偶数个数来判断下期( r0 N; I) E9 j+ u! {. Q
奇偶分配,简直就是天方夜谭、痴人说梦。对具体的分析对象、分析方法的讨论,/ I; k8 M6 q/ @, H- ~& j
有时间时再听俺下文分解俺自己的心得。也请各位高人帮助填补下面内容。% ^" ]* `, h, x, b% f" B
小赌可以养家糊口,大赌可以救国救民。 |
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