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[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
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此帖转贴,作者wloo (凉咖啡) w$ a. T" n# `' V/ u8 b) u% d9 c/ [
Dubo不是好东西,盲目的赌真的会让你倾家荡产。但是如果你真能掌握其中某些实
! f2 i; I) C: O5 A: g8 m质,结果也许真的会大不一样。
* l8 _& \) V6 w1 \6 p' k一个玩21点的,在掌握了提高3%的赢牌机率技术后,他一个晚上就能赢走90万多
& X: h" F# [! b" i+ v美元, G' @/ \8 X9 X9 b
他凭自己的技术,要养家糊口是不成问题的。要说华尔街那些人能在某种程度上掌
/ G' E, }& e- i8 M/ m( F* P+ f4 _控国家经济,也是事实。他们所做的某些工作跟赌有紧密联系的。所以说,小赌可
' A9 W3 }% D/ a, W以养家糊口,大赌可以救国救民,也不能算是痴人梦话。
# N- O% R0 B' N! M0 U) \0 rDubo有多种,这里只说赌彩,就是玩彩票。 有人说,彩票是愚者的Dubo,智者的游$ @6 N" n0 |$ F0 J
戏,我赞承这种说法。
! ?1 T" m9 t; h) Y" Q/ q; X- j v* D$ B现在还没听说过什么人能用玩彩来养家糊口、救国救民,如果真能玩到这种境界,
, N$ I+ V5 Y1 K4 @' n3 v6 z也算世界状元了!但如果你非赌不可,就必须首先具备成熟的心理素质。; ?2 v/ t# v( c" s2 {
首先应该面对的是关于彩票公证性的挑战。" }) Q9 k8 e; A' X& V9 H- v& F
玩彩前,每个人都要先问一个问题:彩票公司公正吗?出号真的是随机的吗?/ \$ `/ T8 }0 h2 W8 r7 N9 j
疑问1:现在世界上主要国家(包括加拿大,不包括天朝)的彩票公司都在用一种
) b% E0 X# d5 kG-tech技术保护,不敢对G-tech多说什么,只是在下面列出很多彩票玩家经常提出
H" [: c0 J4 ?: ?5 u/ X! Z的一些与G-teck 有关的问题:
! X4 D/ R( |5 K9 u* Why one organization called “G-TECH” behind the world lotteries?
$ }6 @. p* n" x' }Is it because those world governments cannot afford to buy the
6 [. P1 \& n+ I$ }equipment outright unless G-TECH supplies it to them?
* v1 f! a1 q* i. c7 p& [9 \* Why G-TECH collect percentage of the profit from the local operators?" f6 U3 M* ?. l' |
* What more is in to lotteries apart from Machines and Balls?
; T5 s4 Z: O. XCould it be software involved?; B# R3 q5 S1 a& @6 Z/ E) \- d4 G1 k
* Why world data such as UK, France, Germany, Spain and even USA have the
: L' f) u2 p" G' dsame resemblance but never and ever match entirely?
+ h* ?( S5 [8 @' b, v/ H- T* Why satellite terminals are involved if the draws are taking place locally,
8 J5 Z! r* b5 B! [ |is it because to transfer data back to G-TECH for calculations?
5 H0 O, R+ V0 y7 v5 }' L" U G* Why there is a minimum of half hour interval from the shut down of terminals
, L) |3 r2 V2 _8 d6 _- q5 Q. Rto the time draw takes place, what the organizers do during this time?
9 @( A$ d9 d* o& g) D2 G' @* How can the local organization running the lottery like Camelot in UK can take
( U" E3 A4 O9 z$ |their share of sales (%50 I believe) before the draw takes place especially
8 t$ t* m8 @3 q" {% V) Fwhere there is a minimum prize of £10 guaranteed? ? How do they know how( p8 v/ s! t1 U1 b
many $10 winners there are to calculate their sums when there is a possibility/ X& a* D9 X" U* L$ s% G, h% _
of the number of £10 winners exceed from the total sales?
5 d- q! V/ y% P( |5 k; r6 k** 注:据说G-tect理论需要30分钟去完成某些“优化”计算
; _; r5 O; m1 q% o% L** 注:理论上讲,过去的中奖号码最多在4500期后就会出现首次重复。* b6 I0 b$ O+ S- o& V, L. b
疑问2:曾有人在某彩票玩家网站上贴出下面文字,后来经有心人查证,其作者IP
7 i- h$ c( ~" m) E" c! G6 @( A似乎是控制加拿大649、Super7的彩票公司,就是说是彩票公司内部的人发出的...( g3 H) c# y( l- s# R
Winning numbers how there are selected* C# Y: y' C. u- h1 ^6 s
This is the way we select the winning numbers:
9 A0 P8 D3 Q( Q$ f/ P/ O. ZSelect "XXX' Numbers_set from Played_numbers
2 B c0 ] _) Uwhere Province_of_played='XXX' and city_of_played='XXX" and time_of_played='XXX'
1 g" p- b* m7 m1 P4 Rand Method_of_Played='XXXX'8 g" N$ a5 w p% X, t- j* v
On each ticket we record the place, the time and the way the numbers have been selected.$ h' j; P1 ?. ~& @" w' N
We run this query against all played sets.
; A0 |5 ^$ w; fWe then feed the drawing machine with the results, the outcome will always be what we want.
; z) j- D/ i s' a" GFor example if we want to have a single winner from Ontario, who played quick pick we run
3 P6 Q! i; p9 L+ m8 K8 _the following query:* u3 t9 Q$ |' d) q9 c7 f. }
Select unique numbers_set from played_numbers& o4 F g4 w2 A' k' \0 O
where province_of_played='Ontario' and method_of_played='quick pick';8 Z# c* \8 n, s( |; r
It just takes less than 5 minutes to get the results.
8 |) q% u% H% x; e( x& A- pWe prefer players wo play quick pick because our machine predict the numbers.- E3 @8 D! f( F& X z
If we do not want a winner we run the following query:
8 V# o S8 @$ ESelect unique numbers_set from all_numbers_set where numbers_set not in played_numbers;
$ Z) t& R; @) x% _ M& z# w" N上述英文是原文,没经过任何改动。
/ D Y& z& k$ ~9 q; [虽然此帖没明说是用在何种彩票上,但后来因为其作者IP的曝光(彩票公司内部人),
* T* f6 e1 U" ~* j" ]4 V% {& {很让人怀疑加拿大649、Super7的公正性。如果这是真的,很恐怖。
/ U5 v/ B- A$ ]9 u3 P' V; `9 r疑问3:为什么现在加拿大彩票公司不实况转播摇奖过程,为什么加拿大彩票公司8 O& {, r: I% N5 ~" T
在停止售票1个半小时后才开始摇奖,而且每次摇奖只有几个人参与(一两个摇奖# w# ]/ m" h2 x9 `( l) w
人员加三两个摄录的技术人员)?
* q1 B/ O o5 m) G2 \( q为什么摇奖过程没有法律公证人员参与、证实?为什么所有玩家购买号不能在摇奖
( \) l! D' e& |- u( D* s3 z前刻在一张非重写的光盘上(体现公正性方法之一)?等等,很多问题。
7 j; V0 u1 l9 Y7 {" Q8 J' Q5 M疑问4:为什么大多数情况下,“中奖者”信息不公开?(有人指出有很多未曝光的重/ h6 o7 Q2 V2 E" @
复中彩者)
- d3 A& u' E9 Z4 l- K8 N$ ^5 j为什么几年前安省649出号与同期加拿大649出号极其相像,远远超过其理论上的! r" }! j5 E: S4 [
可能性?
1 U% z& |6 a1 \7 S疑问5:为什么彩票公司很多公开年薪超过10万的工作人员,几乎所有人公开的Taxable7 c9 K- Y5 c9 x D' h
Benefits只有不到200元?不用上税的Benefits有多少?8 P$ Y/ d+ {$ J$ j5 c) v
下面附件里包括部分2003年OLGC年薪超过10万的Name、Position、Salary、8 |8 E% g% X! }3 T$ i
Taxable Benefits。其实还有很多的疑问,但以上的疑问足以使一个成熟的人望而
' M* z# L9 @. _止步。我个人的感觉,相比之下真正公正的彩票是天朝的彩票。如果你有成熟的心
B; m3 j* {! D& C' h1 V6 C理素质包容以上疑问,并且还坚持非赌不可,那么你还需要了解一些有关彩票的最, \6 Y4 R8 `# h) |% o
基本的知识。
' G N6 \7 P! d. J/ ]+ V; S应该承认,通过适当的分析,是可以大幅度提高中奖机率的。虽然那个玩21点的,/ p- F* }4 Q* m1 ^2 F* u
在掌握了提高3%的赢牌机率技术后,一个晚上就能赢走90万多美元,但是对彩票
7 E. S& H7 R" Z6 {1 \- e( H而言,却完全不是这样。其实对彩票研究而言,提高3%的中奖机率并不困难。比
+ E6 w/ j2 ?% t% P如几周前,某人给出20个数字,说明是其后10次加拿大649最佳候选号。结果中5
% V) t0 b9 p5 b2 C+ I个(或以上)中奖号至少3次以上。: s, K3 A9 Y1 _3 O
理论上,49选20中5的几率是3.2153%,此人的结果提高30%以上的中奖机率。可# Q, k q2 [$ D: O5 S8 Y; Q# H( [- x3 M
结果是他自己最多中了10块钱。原因很简单,彩票可能性的数据量太大,除了专业
: v& N n" `+ k) ]玩彩的,没有人会每期投入几十万。7 v, T4 ~3 }$ S- \: z6 Y8 m
20选6有38760种可能,20选5加另外29选1有449616种可能,每期花$976752,& ?; N2 G* \. M9 V0 P7 ` W
似乎专业玩彩的也不敢这样投。结论是即使你提高了30%的中奖机率,尤其是没有4 `+ j! j# t% [! @8 b8 t
人敢100%保证它的号能每次都达到30%的中5个机率,如果每次买全可能号码,最
- n( _0 a( `8 X3 z6 b后你还有70%的机率是赔。- Z* b1 h' j! v/ Z3 @' P
即使用旋转矩阵选号,20中5保3也要20个以上,仍然赔。如果不自己选号,去quick
- L$ H8 e) b0 y9 rpick,就是机选,那你几乎是没有什么机会的,即使是10块钱,你也会很难得到。: d4 T! a) [: J5 d0 b
且不说上面提到的G-tech保护,首先,理论上的中奖机率就少得很。理论上的机率
; H7 h% a$ m1 T. d也不保证100%中奖机率。0 \3 T" n+ ]8 Z$ k7 G% V
举个具体的649的例子,中3的机率大概是1.765%(或1/57),但你买57张彩票,: m3 x7 V; ]5 Y; ]1 R- q, P O
却不能100%的保证中3。如要100%的保证中3,现在的世界纪录是163,就是最少
$ p4 B" M' \- k& I6 s! y" r$ x9 y买163张彩票(当然按特定组合了),才能100%的保证你中3个。如果你老能设计
' Y2 ^( B* P" g+ ^- h" d一种组合,用低于163的数额就能保证中3,可以去参加Lottery Wheeling4 W/ i/ @, I0 U& G7 C, y
Challenge,也弄个青史留名。当然,这特殊的163张彩号组合,肯定不会受G-tech0 C; }# X- W6 u
影响。问题是用163张彩票,$326,去赌$10奖金是否值得。
E. N; G5 [) ]- ?5 ?如果在这时你老还是非赌不可,那么该如何赌呢?不同的人有不同的技术,如果你. p1 R9 M; n m8 y1 f t
没有白胡子老头托梦告诉你中奖号码,只能多在历史数据里下功夫了。
8 o3 a, I* ?% y4 h2 x( ]0 A- F说到彩票研究,会有很多人说是痴心妄想。8 I: P" D. ~. J4 F! i: f" C$ r+ F
明白人会用概率理论来说明彩票是不可预测;
% O! a" j2 |/ ~5 M h7 i9 m- V不明白人会说,如果你能预测,就先来中几千万;
/ S* y B# W0 a" g不明不白的人会说,中大奖的人都活不长,等等。
: o3 t- j- p7 c3 ?且不管这些不同人的心态,仅对彩票本身而论,要研究彩票,只能从历史数据着手,; ~1 E e6 r) J3 @, R' z' n" a
前提是你要承认历史数据与下期中奖号码有某些联系。7 [: L# n! w$ s7 H- c
比如说第2527期彩票中奖号码是20 21 22 29 39 41,那么理论上第2528期的中奖, [- @$ _' D8 O- D! r; Z
号码于上期没有任何重复数字的几率是43.6%,有一个重复数字的几率是41.3%。3 |: v D/ K7 b Z
对所有前2527期结果统计表明,每期与前一期没有重复数字的次数是1086,重复
; x8 N# @5 ^9 b- U# o4 [1的次数是:1047。另一方面,每期与20 21 22 29 39 41比较,没有重复数字的次
2 Z! p' p; D% V6 E* L5 b' g数是1102,重复1的次数是:1040。这些统计结果显示基本与理论结果一致。
2 O) w+ v" h& l5 x" t4 A明白人知道这里我想说明什么。
# {2 f, u9 ^( H' P( j% M" i在第2528期中,不同的组合,其出现的机率是不一致的。比如,与2527期重复2或
J& B7 X) B) K3 D! ~: @ o4 ~大于2的组合,其出现机率要小于15.1%。承认历史数据与下期中奖号码有一定联系+ V1 q" z, S5 K
后,你可以设计不同的参数去分析,其中某些是非常有效的。大家分析同一个对象,
, z2 r7 n9 f) R3 |9 i但具体方法不同,其结论有天地之差。比如国内很多“专家”出书,分析奇偶,目前为% N, P% k5 [+ H0 ]) P/ K. P+ G
止,没看到任何实用的分析方法。简单的通过近期奇数个数、偶数个数来判断下期
! C: y% h) N5 z7 B. U) [( S奇偶分配,简直就是天方夜谭、痴人说梦。对具体的分析对象、分析方法的讨论,' Y+ r; z# Y' V3 [" n
有时间时再听俺下文分解俺自己的心得。也请各位高人帮助填补下面内容。' J- k% a R9 N) `1 w! D" l' x% L
小赌可以养家糊口,大赌可以救国救民。 |
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