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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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- x# M9 W9 ?5 A3 J! J/ a; t其实原文标题不是这样的. y% Y1 z: u" m8 e
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
; e6 u M+ L) A% H1 ~& W: o他希望能和上帝来场赌局。/ |2 [3 D# I% l T) y: @. S
7 E4 M" I" s0 Y D2 Z
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。) c) `/ n) E" S" o, k
( D& @" f$ i- V0 j& U 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」( N s) W; b; w: ?
4 f- m/ b% l- {「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
. e- o; `9 ~% K( |1 L0 J( }. K「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」% b) \' H2 ^5 _* E4 s9 p
6 C. ` d3 n6 O! n 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。! c: c- a3 `/ O9 n; _2 B* z
$ f* p# A# F. l
接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重， p) A& T( o! N% U/ |) i
因此铜板较容易出现正面。5 z7 d& C& h- I+ {6 k! t( n8 Q
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 ! F5 r3 n% G) w X% b/ W
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
1 b0 O/ O8 F7 N" n) ]1 x心想赢定了。
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/ [2 V" i0 r7 Y# G) Z; ?没想到开始不到半刻钟，
7 y5 @6 Y9 |. i% X* _7 }赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」( q" g* S$ c% r
. L9 X9 ]2 E! y5 p9 M# S; H5 ?5 \' m
赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
/ ]* ?: F: c q9 A但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。! x; u1 ?* z8 f0 y. T
& P& I" }6 U G( l, V, w! H* `+ v
赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
: l% S' z9 ~3 u5 I$ T7 n0 q他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 $ ^: S$ X; ?3 {, B. h# J; g
上帝回答道：# X$ f5 E( f" N0 Q, U% H
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
! n1 w2 M2 t# V6 D( e. E「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」, ^9 f# n6 q. H7 u) ^
「而不是先发生在我身上。」: {" {" z8 p. h+ h1 W
_4 U7 _ i& B+ c, T; O% _. ]" N 赌徒恍然大悟，8 I1 l' P0 D# [7 S* `7 ]
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，/ c. P- b/ L5 j% R& i
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
- i5 u) `- l# B7 Q2 x2 o# A「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
6 ]' m" G; b; V( g" g2 e$ G; a9 O2 v上帝说完便不见踪影。 5 j" f- B) [! P
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板， [! a' G3 E; x
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
/ u. H+ |0 O G& J3 e$ x1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
6 _) ~. {( s4 O/ n! k1 }% c0 h对赌徒十分有利。
: u8 j' x+ q, J9 w- S F* o
6 J# p& H0 ]6 B2 t+ h但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
( ^7 V" g- z7 I; F在还没掷到1000次之前，
4 [; w% q3 ~ C# h/ I# G仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
4 }- j t; g- u+ F+ Q
: B; ?& U. Y9 U/ U% H. z1 z& p 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。# [) L' N. ~% `" d$ Y. w# g
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事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
1 a5 }2 O% l; s9 j; Z
; E7 k4 M# M' p 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，4 w: e, [$ v; x
, }6 _$ ~2 X) I7 y' S# F 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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