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[lastpost] => 2758665 币安泰国执行长直言：加密旅游计划是大胆尝试，也是泰国迈向创新的转折点 1755927612 AOU1888
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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
+ z% Y. W; K! n( T余勋也不例外、
4 {$ z' ~1 x2 v0 `5 n) h! Q K其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 7 k" g) w- W; i1 O! R
是保经济的重要决策！
; s. A! \, n" Y这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 / i; v+ Q7 ?' |, y. v3 d) G
低点26700-32400、
( c R6 A! R, I, \反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 / D% ?0 u8 G% u$ b1 _9 _8 l3 y
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
' P8 ]1 g9 Q& y! u1 L大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
( S0 ^, k$ f0 ~, A3 s涨幅就已回撤过半！ 7 S# r0 O2 Z: x1 H# l% C% P& A
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 6 n( ~6 g8 q/ a r4 E$ y% d R7 X& z
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
4 L6 g* M) ^1 `2 K7 M* h$ s, c% s其次、 * m1 N, g; P: }
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 . M, J- k: i5 j0 N% G
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 5 B7 z1 ?% U& T1 D2 K
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
; I2 ?) A8 v1 P1 y+ k美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
6 F3 V- y, R6 ^& v2 L8 q! o$ l但回到币圈、
2 s8 ?; t7 o* t% }8 D5 l/ ^. M/ P去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 : Q4 T4 C4 y1 L4 A A; e7 u
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 + p* x2 I) K* L! s- V
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 9 q: I# a* q, V) l! s! ^4 ~2 T2 m0 _! a
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 * v) ^9 J( `3 V. _2 l+ _
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
0 z" g! b0 g9 \对当前的底部、影响有限。 % B3 w3 e ]* d ` B
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
: g m. H m# A1 F* P# _所以27000、即是 9 \/ t$ t5 N; k; y% P& w( L
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
5 {/ F! h' U) M& N1 u同时还是去年放水初期低点、 0 X" ]2 }4 N5 ^* q& z* @3 f- d
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 ( Z6 T: j3 {& Q# \$ q0 N
由此得出的结论是、
7 i$ } |& l" s6 T2 f: O加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
: l% L1 A/ z( Q& u7 ~4 z @" K: d点位不会出现太大偏离。
: Q2 g6 o5 H$ C' O& e/ R7 K综合以上、
1 V u, J9 c7 K美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
7 R8 S+ o4 n9 U2 A1 ]在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
/ L; [# h3 S1 S. A: O8 {那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 5 w1 x& w6 N0 c3 @" i2 u! A
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 : R1 w Y- d: O9 I5 s' b5 x
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
8 P; J6 N1 B2 y- F2 \8 O即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
+ `7 E# ^5 {& {) e美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 0 M$ s" g, n h9 Y5 P8 d2 T
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 + Z4 F/ }1 P8 Z' h) s! N) D9 U/ @
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 + W! t3 p1 ~& L J/ H
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
6 c1 p$ i" a3 s3 H7 L0 M' L8 z高空需至31700-32000间布局、 . Z% J3 N4 j( ^6 n
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
4 d8 j# A% L" ^0 Y; L/ U得不偿失。
) u: D- e# v; U5 S0 R8 I来源：金色财经 |
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