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小分3种情况:0 \( D5 j/ n% {, g8 I4 ]
- b5 q$ |7 G" I0 m1 r9 v7 D1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
! N# U% b. V$ j# X4 N: H/ `% w7 K5 h2 e
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。2 b& T) j" v. }1 s0 A% ~
2 u8 T2 U# Y$ p" Z3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
& k0 v9 i: g7 L6 [
7 [3 {6 I. `) t' _) [! h& s2张牌8或9点的情况有:
H' g3 T$ x* x+ P3 K, g; Y( m; A" U6 O7 L
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
3 @/ A0 s" [8 \/ r
; o- \/ L/ q- I1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
# ]0 ~! M% R+ M2 ~. z W
/ w' [+ z, ^: U% d9 T2 B4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415( G" t. h( u$ z2 U
- O, M; c, z+ A; }
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/4154 L" d, R8 |4 I8 T: O9 M
8 J' _/ T+ I* E# ~( _
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。) f/ W0 Z! h. L" \ r$ S6 M P9 b
8 l& G& B) y2 q, c) b/ z通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。0 F# p# ^! n' P' G9 W, U
* x% h1 `% S# _- q那么我们可以得出; q& X# U. m$ c; {# a9 ^' M0 J3 g
# {/ y7 F$ q& a& k' R5 N1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
4 R. {+ _- U3 w+ V* v7 T* Y& s- m0 ?
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
0 q c9 X) `! F( a7 O) L/ d1 B) Q
; `' k, p- M: t3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.0358854919 U. Y6 x) A2 n& i' M
3 V9 T% h8 F; Y& Y" a6 D* {! e/ o5 v所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323& c0 ^" a) q: L+ Q2 Q( F
' A( g3 M8 M& M& P百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
; d r6 X* |8 N( E5 G& A |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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