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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人3 V' @* G: w8 M1 W" q8 K, z
: L- p7 F1 ^( S2 R4 Q4 h, x' H认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，" N w* c( d8 l
+ i6 r) J" m& R
而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
( |, n" F- D8 e! v, @) f, T; U- Q1 t' G, S% y r
的千禧一代。
0 X' r0 I6 y- x6 ?% m- p2 ?从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
# r+ N! V4 e- r& [! h( N7 |. S' Z0 E6 c' O
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
2 Q% v$ Z7 F3 J
$ @, |# K9 L8 i* { l' v7 X& t# T 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加& C9 }' ~ M0 X9 k2 j {
( W5 F' |. C0 g3 O密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据* U! N- M) ^' k# q: X0 g0 }9 ]0 H
. s' C* N+ ^; C! _7 O, q
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成' V- S* |( z m# e% V1 y# E1 q
7 Y9 j5 R& f0 w* f的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
1 T' S' i/ @& g7 R1 @& ~5 q4 P* n2 ]/ I! {, L! N
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
' i, j4 Y: }+ e b
7 x- ?2 e$ [+ W10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
, H6 h$ D0 g& B. B. c# e8 T: w, M4 y! }
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。" l5 D# N% v% ^
. R2 m# o, P2 t/ i据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
; L3 l& K/ f5 L7 \* |; G' s* e E2 Z. o0 a y9 X: g, Q
息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
& R. J0 r" |/ G* y2 y5 o9 i! j# x8 Q& L* D
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密. a6 }* b5 }/ ?, y0 h
( Q. w k Y' g% @2 G世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富 V' Q% _0 v- g2 ^5 b
- ^ D) \- |6 h$ t) Q传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不( S+ E! t) [+ O# Q5 e
( P: B# h! b* a
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一' ]) o! e! E* Z( k0 D9 Y+ I
/ ~' T7 V6 N$ o代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
# C6 C! ]4 U) T- ?- l) B
" Y/ u$ Z4 w4 ~% X本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体# c0 s- M* e+ X/ s( W9 q
/ @) S$ @$ u. }5 C3 q# I7 d系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货' U$ w" d5 ^ e7 C6 O* q" X
6 d, A% n q% v* R- p& [3 M7 C; e3 Q
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致3 j* V; H' Q7 [; h, ~" x- k
7 Z s' i. Z8 |$ m" |+ I
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富! q- N1 ?$ l- l$ s( E7 V9 {
8 f0 h* C, u. B/ ~/ h* m
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。! t! Y" Z, ^% ^/ @( F V. d. [
5 m. P0 i% r$ B/ S- O
% w8 y& @: R5 P+ h# B! R% } |
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