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加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
$ j* q& |/ K6 ~+ rDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，+ J: {- g4 c" d/ B- ~
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
- R5 Z2 A: [+ p, ?一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0* r# a3 n2 Y, W5 M/ S. d" B6 L4 q- A
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
. s5 Q; P: Y T: w4 e# zPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：1 ]- i6 F6 q/ s# y; ? u* I4 _' D) I
2024年4月第四次减半
& W2 I( J# ]* Q机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
$ M$ D4 j" d# Q7 B8 W! u" K可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
; h# ~* x+ G& ]4 w! i0 k7 B针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
7 \: z& @7 J6 u二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务. p8 K" X3 k, H) y! ?. G0 G
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。# q2 V+ H5 V! R) W4 f4 i9 A9 B
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠( M' I$ `5 Z6 z' C) N
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。& h' S) R$ ]! {: i9 S
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁7 |% \$ i9 f9 Q+ `6 p7 w
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
5 T+ y# b, q' d金融(TradFi)产品。
! E& s0 ~0 M( X# n! g! a如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
, Q/ o* |: B- q0 i/ ^$ q* J0 F/ g链桥」的项目。6 k: I) s$ ]/ |+ \7 A
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉: O2 _/ a& U1 T$ g) [2 S
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
* V5 E+ n+ ]; n等。
, y+ d8 L3 J4 J1 [0 N( z5 aPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
3 F5 Y, F9 L' }1 u6 E3 j在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
. Z0 X; i) L( D" v- r4 n6 t' R五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN/ _3 o: S' f/ g! E8 R
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
! G" M7 l1 u, N. H数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。: a" L# ]# W% T; Z, T5 e; ?
Pantera点名了几个项目：# ~, K- Q* N4 m2 J: |% w
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
/ S1 k1 m4 d; V/ B2 O8 I Y VBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台2 Y6 m% P" ]' ^( @; M! B2 d& i
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品( d1 \; E% k: R) \2 q) ~% N" Q
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
* W$ r6 z# t# u# c& GRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游
% V9 z2 c, s1 g# _, x六、小型公链需专注特定应用! a4 ~- ^$ J+ v: @& P4 |
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚5 A, o) |' Z9 _0 H
至能直接与L2竞争。
2 k3 C) Y8 l) ~! X* J也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
2 c' \; Z2 A7 d6 aPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
$ q5 J3 u1 W( P; `# H }' ~成为「应用链」。
1 M) D* ^- f9 ~5 D( X1 F0 k事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
' F! D/ c5 o' ^5 w7 M4 i* t2 q" x V4 s& j, J) S* ~
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