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加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为. r' ]8 [+ a* n1 o! K' t6 A
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
2 H0 J4 t1 k. z) \1 X( [% i& i衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
3 w: H' C, N9 t6 }一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.00 Y; M4 p( s6 {! x
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。$ m3 D0 L* S$ s2 t2 y3 W3 D
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：9 y7 {+ n& |4 i2 b5 ?8 J& Y
2024年4月第四次减半4 D; T1 R3 u$ u3 a$ q. R9 |
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
& Y+ S( b6 O" ]* `6 K6 ^可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)6 W" t3 s _: K% b9 v' d' |
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
0 Y. {# Z0 }( {7 {6 _# {二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务# w* X3 {- ?3 K+ K- T! F! m( H
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
. L& ?7 Y0 V4 P& ZPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠2 r% o Y2 Q, g
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。8 a' a( c0 D. n& C+ `$ F
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁7 z9 E* ~4 C7 F
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
5 o1 s; V" Z7 x3 i, a+ o' w金融(TradFi)产品。
9 H' N* ?( f. y4 r+ p如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
& o/ U% E$ W' @链桥」的项目。
5 v( x( a+ h6 e) X1 n四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉, ~: A$ a( H5 j4 P9 M# Z
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作' L2 A6 x4 K: }: x" k: I
等。
2 t3 x8 |" Z) A. U& ^Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
, S6 H+ T$ `7 G5 j在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。0 `3 E' v. [/ b' X8 p4 q
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
) k E6 U1 f1 N3 C4 H; |9 \9 OPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
$ p7 f8 G/ L. X1 _7 [数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
z8 G/ b# V* n: P6 n" N, {/ vPantera点名了几个项目：
F' P; m& p. w/ x! D; B+ H- |" QHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图! Y( O3 }* [7 a
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台) T/ h; J( Q+ k9 Y1 l% k
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
) d; h" s: v! l, _The Graph：链上知识图谱计划9 Q5 _, u8 _. a; [5 `
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游$ t. I2 X' W7 n7 W
六、小型公链需专注特定应用) Z3 X/ l% z, ]! R
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
+ s9 }$ S8 P5 Y( V9 X至能直接与L2竞争。
/ ?6 g: j6 n# J* E$ P也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。: D1 P8 o1 m) @$ Z# g2 N
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地" ~; V7 a6 D( i7 f P; d
成为「应用链」。1 u: U; r5 T6 o% J% w) B0 Q3 `
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
& F* Y& v; ~8 \/ Z1 F. j M- e. @% k1 @( a" F& G- ~
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