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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
# r9 w0 @3 j$ \( @+ d     2 k6 ]) j( [! {
     平手中水,主队有利! ]3 I. I; Y5 D8 P7 k/ i
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。% }0 t1 t" y) e/ s4 Z
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
8 v9 p5 G, ^7 q- ~, X, y3 D# R     英超主队3 P* O5 R) x2 ?
     胜:13场 48%" p% W' W, n5 l
     平:5场 17%
: R0 N( D0 Q& B     负:9场 35%& m8 _3 d( Y% K6 r
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。, N4 K; B9 C1 b3 Q1 ^# ]
     7 N3 ?) h! i1 k' s. h5 P% M9 N
     一、初盘阶段
5 d! a9 _& L6 w" |6 I     具体到水位如下:
* ?/ |& k) E& Y1 g9 T     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负6 J% u+ [9 i) Y
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
/ q6 h2 k: {; z8 i( |$ `     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负2 T' Q' Y! l  `8 n0 p) H& Q
     
4 ]8 K4 c& w/ d& S1 I; D     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。  {+ e+ i6 E/ T- S
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
' p% F4 a! j8 S3 ^4 V2 `     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
) A; M- u7 l+ S     
% u. c2 h+ k. f) v3 l     二、临场阶段
# }0 {6 f) D9 r& I9 V       \2 S4 t2 i+ O* ?5 J; U
     具体到变盘和水位如下:
' j- A$ p) H4 J) i     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
$ W' S! W7 W4 C1 y$ R     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
, @& M3 ?, y7 W) t* N& I/ ]     3 a9 L; R4 l. C) m- ~
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。$ s; O$ G0 ~& t# O1 Z: Q
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:3 ], S# X9 [/ {! H% J0 Q: X- g
     & m7 l/ ]" y# T# h3 B
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿. R- \0 }# }3 t: c- m! q
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
* W, i- R) Q2 W( C# N     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
' j( e& M$ M: D) Z     + h" p: t  b4 J, S3 \* b1 e( K" k
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆2 A: I6 j6 [" w5 H
     初盘:0.76平手1.102 Q9 L2 E# O: ?9 |  Y
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
0 d: g4 a  m5 b# B6 C! B     & Z& v' p% l9 q+ r
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
4 P4 `0 T$ D0 m" ?* d     初盘:0.82平手1.04
/ g0 O1 d1 _$ k1 r! [, ]5 c$ P$ `7 a8 q     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
* u3 Z+ C, a( |2 r. T4 p     
  u9 }+ t- A- k5 b     伯恩利2-1西汉姆: a0 q6 c6 b, B' |0 w% M
     初盘:0.88平手0.98. {7 T6 N+ d4 R4 ~5 s
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
1 V- a4 h5 p1 e2 x1 ~4 ~4 c8 a5 p     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。! c8 f9 Y, j9 p; d9 p
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。% w/ f$ \5 u2 b5 H" n  g4 z
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
' f" a- J$ U0 |$ }1 ~$ S( l     ' ?6 w  s- U, n2 L
     三、球队表现
+ ?4 W3 S3 o4 l4 J1 R     * v# Y: R0 S4 O( [
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。" `# D1 n7 S; D* A
     
! J: T3 j4 ?+ b& z     四、投注要点
; P: t8 C8 k4 d     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
% ?$ q( q% _" `+ Y6 w0 G5 R! X     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
6 K7 t" T7 G: p& A     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
# o* j" U1 N/ \0 l) R: e! n8 R     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
" m1 d3 h# ]- ^2 F4 I2 w0 I     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任& ^( O2 K, t/ D% O: c' `' }( c
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
& F3 ^0 |. K: p8 s+ z( [     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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