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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘
" G2 N1 n; `8 b" e' |4 W5 P4 L 0 L/ ~- r" {& U( R# f* R. B. m
初盘高水,豪门要防冷
: x9 Y7 }! P* @# X. `+ G
2 Q7 \- h; I) e ! c x. k9 h, w3 l+ D
09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
. G, r9 j7 e) U# `7 _ 英超主队
1 c t" D; [# o8 ~$ n0 {* ^ 胜:11场 79%% v T$ [8 p, u& {9 o
平:2场 14%
! S8 d% Z- k$ k0 J& f0 _& g5 P 负:1场 7%
+ V) j+ k) B# J1 I
+ I7 E1 R; Z6 b) S 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。
4 V! P' ?( g X4 Y 6 C8 Y; I9 V0 u5 O4 w+ O e
一、初盘阶段4 u ^# a+ C/ o# M" @0 ~
% Z' A* G' Q) h# n2 o 具体到水位如下:
1 P4 G( k" K& P) A2 y 初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜2 C/ y/ d& g& s- U5 s) R
初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平3 E' V& n/ l) R7 o, `0 z
初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平
# C- ~4 {4 c- b# H `! k* p! }
: [2 J) h: _& v' ?+ U. c2 v 分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:
/ k4 t' Q8 j9 b' n4 F: ]( q8 B3 L
9 u" }$ v r& _& U' ]. A0 M 维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00' G) S1 W1 C8 [, S- f o" H
热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02, }; p( {8 b* p; K1 I+ r, \( F# E
热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.001 T( S/ @* D6 k5 S2 ~8 r J* o2 p+ _
' r+ ~5 n. I5 v; R2 U4 u4 U 初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。. K' K/ q( f( t2 B6 W: ^% \
初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。* O. ]2 W9 K9 [( Y
3 @( m! K. z; ~6 \! |9 b
二、临场阶段. W$ ?+ `4 F6 ]! ?' W9 Z
! Q' ~! \4 n& f0 q6 E% s
具体到盘口如下:
1 g5 v2 u3 O; ?# c+ { 临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜9 K/ H& o/ W* t, T0 N1 D
临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平4 i! p$ ?4 w- o, E3 d
分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:
" v6 r0 I# r: l- M& P( e4 w# T( P
. i; D; d e) M( y' A7 r 热刺VS伯恩利' {1 r. @8 p, K1 _7 |
初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00& q6 B( _% B2 A0 V2 J8 O5 W% f
终盘:0.77球半1.099 a" h( {9 d& V) i
+ m9 L) P9 L! v 临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。
8 U- } `$ L6 J9 v
: P# u2 E" K+ {( e' d7 i% v 三、球队表现" q: x% c4 `4 ~; j5 \* m3 I
+ g4 S% a0 o5 c+ R+ X
在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。
; p1 _, b, ~6 E2 `8 k; @, H
/ c/ y2 m3 Y( m" ~5 D; {- r0 I 四、投注要点$ M% c: E2 q3 D
! p/ l7 Z$ ~5 f7 [: P. a 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证
0 b' \4 h3 Q* { 要点2:初盘中水,重点防平/ m* {$ J2 y8 [, ^- W
要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能
8 y; d6 ]1 }5 M1 R( L& x! }$ O 要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选314 q- p) [1 M- Q# [+ e
要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低/ B$ q: E0 `7 i) {
要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任
$ X; E8 G$ n* t: w+ Y, Y 要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视$ z7 u5 y/ d( |/ C8 L& v' h% X2 G# P
$ ]+ K2 \( }: N: U5 P 对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法2 d& I- e! }5 \
对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方
* j7 n" u+ f9 W9 T5 g4 b4 d" l 面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。 [" ~' N" ~; q; T
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