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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘* {( D6 Z: [. J  A. f0 j
     
; L! z1 }. ]8 Y- W8 b, M     初盘高水,豪门要防冷$ i- B/ p! z& ^
       
3 ^- q) Y0 S9 F$ {8 r; s% u     
/ b( n- f$ B  b) T6 X# \& R     09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:; [" t- D) q; o1 M; O( e$ r
     英超主队
6 m  T/ Q0 A8 D" F( x% p- ]6 N4 j     胜:11场 79%1 Y/ G1 b" o6 x: s
     平:2场 14%
" J& W& e4 x) u! m# ]( d* T     负:1场 7%8 u1 m+ y. F/ h
     
. L! p* h7 x6 [; f) A: i1 G& D3 j     通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。2 B. \9 ^+ h6 z$ b" m8 j6 l- V
     ( _. Z& A. S( ?4 G( V4 o/ F
     一、初盘阶段3 \. E# W) x2 N, K/ g
     
9 s3 e8 e  o  N5 V! w% u$ l     具体到水位如下:- I# C. b( R# Y% W& I
     初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
# k! L' J  L! x& ]$ k* U; C     初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平8 B' ~0 A' Y4 V! O' c/ B8 T
     初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平0 t( L0 V4 D: L9 O# N* S; s
     
7 }$ J3 ^& |' z+ }4 x& ^) S: k     分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:
  F6 r2 {! J6 J8 o$ M  }     9 M7 x& I2 \+ E" d% P# ~; O1 I
     维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00
5 Q1 L% X8 a7 v+ e     热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02
7 \" J9 j8 p6 r* |     热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
% p& S. i1 E. c( F* s3 [     1 X/ C" b! `3 u0 p" o3 [% F
     初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。, l0 U1 [3 ~8 F. B" w  P
     初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。
7 y# Q- [& `9 p, e. X2 `     
" t, L% P- J. O0 c4 `     二、临场阶段
' B# k' N' v5 }+ r- m9 M0 G8 E     
. P$ p) }/ C" Z. O! G: }  d     具体到盘口如下:6 r# ?5 I+ z; P* Y
     临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜
) V% g9 [0 z9 b0 O! ?* m     临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平/ s* w1 x8 s' q) Y: v) A. u
     分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:
$ }! e3 R( n. d, \     6 Z; t* n/ A* X1 H
     热刺VS伯恩利( a7 k% ]5 r. h" d7 R
     初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00
& s# e9 D/ j6 u     终盘:0.77球半1.09
$ O! l2 S" D& X% I$ _$ j% t6 d     
9 u4 b7 B; |' R7 M+ T  y. P     临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。/ M+ P$ z0 b8 i  }! F
     
# c  e" D/ P5 o+ {) Y; }     三、球队表现
/ _: F/ S/ v" V5 z, o     , O# l/ h3 a0 n- H. f$ F# h" U' e( C5 V
     在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。
: x/ C; C  m$ I+ W( E     # [9 v* {2 _) l. f7 Y
     四、投注要点) E* V" `% L: J1 v0 G. i
     
' P" \' ~8 x* B: \3 v+ P     要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证4 E  L: p$ y8 e/ V
     要点2:初盘中水,重点防平1 Q5 P; D2 k6 k/ t, E! k8 ^; H
     要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能; n0 _% {. B( R, ~1 q$ U; E
     要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
+ b. e: m- f& f! z3 p$ o5 g- K     要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
& U1 O, O* e$ m     要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任: r; B0 p) Y6 M9 X' t/ R
     要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视
1 W- N. C  f# ^! Y+ c     
; L- h: k; F0 z  `5 M     对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法& w  Z( |, [5 Y$ y( D7 w9 I; F
     对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方0 c9 c3 r5 ~* _% f" n
     面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。
( R" i+ y3 m; o  H8 {           
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:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake:
未有绑定记录
 


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