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[lastpost] => 2765088 比特币鲨鱼在市场波动中增持(转) 1757678147 g9527
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势+ L: B6 ]. |% m
|0 m8 M; h8 Z* u# [ ^过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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( g8 h; K1 q$ ]) c9 _0 UPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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# n& M' ]$ N. C/ w# m% wCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。3 z% ?. b7 N4 n. ~& b7 P
. W& ~: a! J5 g, n: t3 X8 \6 V7 A2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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7 F9 a+ H& ?1 F. D8 N微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;7 ~* D' Y% j# p9 P
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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2 o, ~: A7 m; j) N5 V比特币价值回归:( \/ s9 Y9 ^1 Y, N( r2 u6 R
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。) B Z4 T6 Y& e
/ p' ]# E4 N# Z, N* g/ Y0 ~随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。' Y( p0 Z) F" r
2 r3 e8 K8 `* c3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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( I3 A: N" d& e0 B7 c1 J. O; T虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。' d9 ]4 {1 F7 k) g
" \2 o6 q2 i8 d' E# P7 C9 ^3 B机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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BTC:5 X! q$ \- w6 P" m
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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) R; N# Q6 D, _7 R, C6 F, tSOL与XRP:$ `6 V3 u) t% \, b; M5 `5 d$ }( i% `4 G
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。" Z1 F) T; z# W9 Z! [
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。" U" ^2 I4 o8 x( s: e: i
) _' z9 U; Y/ r) G* k/ n其他热点项目:3 I, r3 t2 z" ?1 Z7 g- P3 p9 E- Y
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。1 D. Y' ]/ m# c4 L% K' S
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目* h1 [$ g) B2 h3 o+ J& A
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。% F' ?1 l3 R% g! S1 m
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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. P- Y. e9 w. c新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。# G" G8 v" }4 h- _0 {
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市场展望9 J k f- }8 D/ C
7 z% l9 g- l1 k( k' R3 N6 Q, y7 _8 c* P随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。/ T, n6 E! f; ?' o1 {$ N
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