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[lastpost] => 2764269 云锋金融公告聚焦区块链合规应用,探索RWA与AI赋能实体经济数字化转型(转) 1757464838 九嶷风
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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9 X0 _+ T1 K0 u$ V过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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$ q }% P3 R5 pCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。( w$ g& Z/ r C) w9 }: w
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期8 x0 D0 P! Z5 ?" x1 m
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当前持仓成本:! P" x5 r( [( {: r! Q! |" A2 {; R
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;8 O; P5 r4 T3 W4 R
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;& g7 }- ^% |" |+ Q! K' T' ]
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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比特币价值回归:
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1 s% \4 J1 N6 i/ \( ]6 f市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。7 `% T) F* X5 G
( {' [7 [# b' j' A \随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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! @/ N& K. ]8 w2 [3 q加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。6 f" y* L# S+ {5 E D
: w6 p) D) P/ i$ I% j3. 市场热点与反弹情况. W8 p5 v$ L+ C' h
# ~3 F9 j5 } E NETH: v7 d6 v& z# g7 c3 S
* ]! ]. i8 D# K' w) ^5 E G4 ?9 t7 n虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。# j S8 a; Z: _) w. f
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。 [% P& ~0 }! m/ p, A
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BTC:0 R5 S) ~1 f8 _- @! b6 y$ c+ V
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。5 L- L: p! ~+ U6 n2 W6 @ S
- J" d/ p) J# s+ v% l如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。
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SOL与XRP:
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。- l! w6 M9 b0 o# Y# \0 T
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。 X1 @2 O( r0 Q& f" ]7 h0 ^
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其他热点项目:4 H. W/ a$ P* f- q4 R
6 `8 O2 m( M7 ^涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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1 K2 Z4 j5 k# |. ^* c7 ?4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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& D+ Z( U; m0 d' ?新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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市场展望' n% n) ` e) f* K$ l1 j
# H g8 R' M+ {) @% Q: a随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。; f7 Q; Y2 ]8 S: Y* Q" H5 o
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