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[lastpost] => 2816407 今年降息最多1次！美股全线暴跌！难道比特币又要跌到6万？（转） 1773949366 叫我十三
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。6 e4 j+ u7 L* P) m1 P/ N( ?2 {" H
; q2 R' i, |$ B6 v) ?' w- s瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心4 G/ G$ Q# g: U
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
5 G2 I F7 r: z* {5 e! t# e' R美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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0 ~* E7 A$ |: y* [* {过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益. o, K+ E8 w. M: w+ N, B" a
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。+ d0 V4 W) x9 r/ g% ^' M- x
0 g3 X) i* m0 d然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国' ~, h' y# k% J
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更7 T0 e( z" d) D$ O+ l4 H8 ?2 i" e6 k% E
- c2 F9 S6 j1 V0 e是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。+ @% n# J) e* _( Z; b& v& C" s
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币5 ^6 F! T' P* r0 f- n% K
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史* Q+ M. }5 F7 w3 G$ n$ W" v& j
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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, E0 r: C+ k" w/ y% ?/ h周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。& O* N; ] ]) q
, S! l+ l% w/ }* A) S# O1 n周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债: }( {7 P# B4 l* H: e
4 Q. C6 Q; V* L M% y收益率冲高回落。
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7 I; P6 O( \: `' {4 H5 e周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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& B6 h3 @! t1 G周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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6 ~8 F4 ~) B5 RLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，) `+ Y% P) |1 \& X0 x( `' ~
9 W; E' v, R" S. @ `是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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9 Z4 m/ U& |$ u年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"% C- R0 I4 d" Z+ G) I, C3 R0 ~+ C
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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