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[lastpost] => 2749387 比特币市值超亚马逊，机构拼命买，散户却“已读不回” 1752942675 天策-瑶娥
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心& Z2 g, E9 Q: }6 r3 ]
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
9 J' w$ A t& |3 E美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。! ?6 ?/ H9 {7 | s; x' q" S9 W
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国( } q+ U2 T! S- m8 P2 X
9 g- I; {# o# e长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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9 |6 K3 n6 L7 {4 ?, _是表示：1 d3 n3 {" _- }9 J& |( y/ ~: |! ~
}! u( l" Q, K g, N% g4 @这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。+ i, X' t' E2 R
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币0 p; o+ q! Q. z/ e% S" G% ]4 s
. s* ^5 O' o3 L1 v+ q, I特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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* Y2 k! A, {( i; O- F: _ i标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。" g4 D1 L6 c, d3 b) J# c3 q; C! W' y/ {
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。/ i9 x; B$ R& k
3 {5 T) P/ a7 C' D9 a周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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8 W8 i$ D @8 }# N: k+ o; V5 F收益率冲高回落。; d# Z+ w5 j/ I9 d) h& ]
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。+ Q5 { g2 ^! Z" i
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。+ U. [# `1 C* p( c
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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$ Q& e' G. q+ F( Q1 o- P是的，这正是我们所看到的。"# ^" y( L0 P& ]$ U
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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# a4 p2 m5 P+ r$ n/ m) d年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。0 q+ V+ X" c0 E
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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