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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。% @( r2 z! X: a/ E8 R
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。: U; S9 X5 P* ~; _
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市: F1 h! M/ ~) E2 ]3 ~
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。6 P7 N U# l( g( k
) }7 i0 @3 g3 `7 Z# R ~$ C来源：Alphractal
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/ t# j/ o! _/ ^+ C15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。- J9 W. s3 [2 R! f* f
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。# g* Y0 N6 {/ r; }8 o& s- P+ R
1 X: y7 g5 j+ i! O: l6 ]事情变得有趣了
( O/ @( A- x8 G: X; j" S8 ]" s* rBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。7 Q, W2 F% l/ d7 S4 k/ @. r7 U$ R6 [
! `( ` O- ]8 [9 ?* }5 I0 Y/ N来源：X2 ~% p& u L$ t2 I& f
" O$ P5 x L' V p' m根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。# ]9 a( p. A( G, J7 u
0 u) Z. B `% X; k' T: }BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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* X1 E7 }+ I2 e* Z6 A正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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* ]6 V1 ~+ r1 ]0 c随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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: t# w7 `+ ?$ b0 o/ a0 a空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
! |; M" c& w7 O. t经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。" j' |# {: ]; u& j! N7 a
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来源：TradingView
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。# l1 _; Q8 ]$ ]: H. e- K8 ^5 B
% m+ O8 o9 B; a然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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) t; }8 E( `. g: f: t8 v% z突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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