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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。+ x* z0 A8 q, a4 `) G, h, j7 S: T
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! q+ @; K2 F9 [$ E, F1 n9 x3 K西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率6 u, M% L  k" x' I- L8 g

  y" }4 i. H( b2 c以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% . [; e0 i% J5 f/ @

& T0 n4 C# |9 ^  x很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?( M- K; k- t, K. h- z' |0 Y
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盈利可能性" L5 y  H3 o5 n/ W
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。2 D) U5 W% E3 c( H/ w: M' V0 V# {. y

- F  s9 h/ [: I# f# Y* F9 ^  q/ o增值9 ^7 U6 ?+ N: @5 S# {9 W3 F4 O

9 ?3 c; o# H# b0 R* B许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。* i6 m7 ?1 y5 S( t$ n
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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; r0 t8 b: g' f8 U  ka) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 0 X& S+ m7 E$ u% E; _2 h

8 P3 k( h+ g# p$ @( `) I4 v正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么, i# \; R$ G% C* G

) \0 c; N; B; a, S40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
; s! G+ b8 g/ c' z  V60%的机会你会一无所有  M4 F" K2 z% N1 g' l5 @
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 9 O5 ?6 E, Q) ]2 z9 ?+ l1 d+ E& X
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。* r! {! a6 t' R

$ a& ]0 }+ l0 a0 N+ h, U6 E增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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7 m7 W! Y8 D; j% Q- X基于增值的投注0 z9 s4 o# D; e6 p6 l5 M" I6 U5 l
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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, N8 G1 c& J2 h. f0 i* H! \% I公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)6 `" \5 V2 c. _5 N  f
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A=博彩资金
& c9 g% W, j5 EP=获胜机会# G2 G& S, Q; a9 d8 ?
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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$ N$ o4 ]2 p3 p- {& a: f好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)$ E/ L2 _* X/ b  L" v  v: f
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)2 P( j0 c- t% V  t

5 K: m. |( T3 J- V3 PA=0
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- Z4 y2 j( J5 {5 W6 D! L结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢. t8 ]. N/ C5 C9 S5 N4 }

: w7 P5 Q3 K; {+ O' W8 Z2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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( t8 T6 [& e# y, r: x- T* l/ \A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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( Q- g% e' n& @5 x; I8 LA=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去8 E- s: ~/ F" r  l
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)" {$ O+ e' ?% z2 C7 F1 U
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A= -0.2 ; f, {, J: }! Z
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好2 c, ~' W8 T. M) y, x- j$ p2 t  x* k
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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