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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率- ]+ ?/ J' F* u5 q9 Y! E
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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0 L7 {# s( N: x皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?5 ]7 @0 c& j8 W6 A/ w, T( b  N" l

2 d2 c2 y) |2 u答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)0 _6 y4 q' O1 ?7 n% J) n& {

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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?; S7 P- @$ d7 L6 V0 j, K5 M' _: ^

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盈利可能性
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  |% u( ~$ I. {对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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+ v5 n- P6 r3 K3 T; U0 a许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?7 z  X, w% K( n8 V* h
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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" l, }" a' e: Y正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润# y% [, D' j# ~0 n
60%的机会你会一无所有
% s1 a0 X5 `4 @6 f; R: @+ c  P5 Z0 N预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 7 y4 X, s& x6 S& X- j, k2 u1 \
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。% Q& W$ y" ^  E4 c+ x: W
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注1 v& O: ?/ n2 l9 w. G9 z

9 [7 `. x' u; s# b: C- U; ]4 Y凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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5 e5 t& i$ V/ c5 X2 @6 @* {公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
. ?5 H0 ?/ o2 r& S# Q, nP=获胜机会
  V/ A7 T" T0 O+ y. q& ~O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。1 t1 m, J& u- e+ s6 D" E
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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* Q1 O% b& w( t$ [A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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# a+ D( g+ m) O2 g2 |A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢- L) |7 f+ Y) @

, L1 o1 g/ ~5 e3 T* |. Y2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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$ w& g, E6 Z$ p1 dA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1
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9 i! s% v( }) |1 u0 C( }# }; e结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去3 l5 J# x9 s- \
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)) b" h8 J4 h0 r3 `8 E3 G, x% G

1 K- V! `  A" M5 v; r! NA= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好6 W3 s2 y1 c2 }2 L8 U
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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