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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。3 x2 t- M* r/ v3 S: n( A

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$ D7 n8 A3 W. i8 u西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率% l5 ~  M* g* }2 _( Z( f7 N

" w& p9 m: y: |1 M" t0 u3 e以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:) G& a# x! V' k" j! W  n

; d4 n$ [" ]. x2 h  G皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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/ z/ e4 b. x" R4 d- ^- `很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?$ `; j) P5 Q- M- g
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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# i; c' b& L8 U8 f& ?以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?: d5 V# E$ d& R
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盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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0 E" w$ y. K8 L+ T+ ^( ~增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 / O0 O6 f0 W! W

+ U* C; f1 U1 H( h4 B5 X& w$ [正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么6 \6 S/ ^1 c( ?' L2 m" r; f

9 f* \* Y7 v7 k: Q  i40%的机会你会收到150元的利润; ?! O: ^  }. J- v
60%的机会你会一无所有4 X- V' F$ `* k. o* u) v/ P
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
# d# v" C, k# [) @; e8 d2 I由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。- H/ ]8 W4 H; P3 b* @
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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0 u& X! d) [- f2 }基于增值的投注, Z& J9 u& B, `  I" d: u5 L
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。. \3 [  w1 X+ U! r% }/ O

( w2 {# |6 l  e1 @3 _) F# i公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
& a4 O7 y+ |" x7 z& S+ lP=获胜机会0 Q; E1 o; @" u1 n
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金). m8 q9 X6 j. ]2 O

) G) v/ Y. x) a1 y, S3 ]首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。* M/ l; X% p( k  T6 t
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。  p& |! t# ], ^* }: a

2 J2 {* K2 e: e0 }8 E" D! c; q1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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! g8 y8 M& u$ Y# l) q- |; [A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)- V1 I9 x1 F/ W: U) Y
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A=01 K" U3 F/ p  @& l0 ^* f! H

; y/ M. `/ V8 C3 a# p结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)1 e  O4 C- Z! F8 N

0 M  u& s8 y: P. w0 OA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)# p  V/ J" }( W" E; F7 P

3 m$ |& ~: f/ kA=0.1
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% G$ _' ?2 b/ n+ m  ]% q5 r7 @3 R结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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6 A/ p, a  A/ `, G% P3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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  y% R" g6 E6 i8 jA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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$ S# \7 K; {5 V% m% ~A= -0.2
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& k- B" Q6 y* m  q. l结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好6 D$ l+ ]# ]) r: B% ?4 P& E
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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