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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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1#

第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>


: ?" ^- d/ J4 P# w* z- W賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
6 S3 m( }5 }; L& J10A23456789
- w. {: I: x9 p: R-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.1598 k& o$ x9 F! E6 r3 |& E- f- r
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
. }+ h: C, q; p' ]" d0 P9 v-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133
' D. b- G9 h9 @* i+ o) K6 A. L-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120: L5 n  P( d0 C9 K
-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108
1 _/ k1 P4 {: T$ D-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096
" ?0 W8 I- J" I# `6 @-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.0850 z) D7 L+ ], `& B2 V2 G
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
) J; `7 f9 K$ a/ ?3 [- P0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064& d/ [. H: @' C: h
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054. H& F! e% {$ k, |# \8 h4 s& ^
2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045$ ]* A& H/ w3 P' c$ z; ]
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.0363 b* r9 p( S6 b" ~$ b. Q
4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
: e# S9 j* ^$ G* k8 G5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.0208 c" }- T' r+ {1 z5 _
6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013/ ]/ S3 s! f& f# ~) v
7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
2 P" i7 n+ h* h/ I- w8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001
* q9 }4 b% Y9 E0 E5 \* v3 d9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996" ^5 A* H) S5 p, b
10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.9920 }+ \* B/ O/ T$ y' ?5 S/ K
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988
0 d4 T$ P. b" C% Z9 F$ y12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985
; ~6 i+ }' V. i4 ]2 q13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.9824 i- B: ^% X  H
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980
, F0 @5 E5 h) ]; [( U+ ~15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.9796 I4 x# ?# X( I) _( k% H
16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979
% G/ m, E5 d: y% H2 q! m* E' E3 }17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
& u$ X! V, `% E! m  B18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.9796 l  @& i4 W: V' v% r
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981; M; C! T1 q, [6 ~: |4 N+ @) X
20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983  `/ _, _  C1 c2 ?- n
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986% m4 P1 C  s- v- _) H" j
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
* A' H  S7 m. P7 Q23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
% S" q$ |, F8 W) g2 H  J24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997: M+ u" U% E- V( y7 L: v/ X" T
25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
% h6 d% ^" A4 m3 j

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


# ?2 ~4 a4 v: ]7 H9 {' P. ]1 Q4 p表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
. W) p. C/ d8 o; }& Y3 X0 B: ?10A23456789
, E! G2 y, [' ^* P5 @-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095
3 ^0 t8 o2 p! c: Y) s-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082
% e3 s0 E  R0 }! H) B/ }-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.0695 ?, g0 s0 E. G. h+ L
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056, _8 S2 g5 ]; j. X
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.0440 m+ ]6 C5 u- D3 q; Z
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.0324 I) b/ H+ c% s
-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021; X# E' o! c9 D7 \: m" u+ ?
-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010
3 _1 s3 r7 P' D0 H00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000. N/ n6 ^) x9 Y1 U
1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
" G' c3 ]5 C# W0 r2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.0193 ?0 I( A9 a8 W. Y" f
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
: ^' O/ R( A% D. o4 b& ^% p4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.0367 C. S: P7 O8 J* G6 J/ x
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
8 F7 O* K) T" a' y, _3 [4 I7 @6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.0511 o6 w+ N: T, A2 c
7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057+ ~1 Q% x3 H1 _9 t  A
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063* b- \; c/ t* z* I
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068
7 h2 F6 M) W9 ~- ^' X! d10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.0725 _' Y4 P) v# R
11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076  w7 j9 V5 d  r  f
12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079" j" x5 L' p* v0 L1 @% k. u
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082
9 m7 e5 ~  C5 s7 W14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084/ Z- d* i- G2 e& ?) {6 X
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085
$ A* k3 P' C/ ?' R  W16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085, u. W2 I- P, e" n" `
17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
" e/ T7 a3 l- Z7 l9 o5 \18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
5 S1 z, }' T) B! V1 {19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
* O$ d2 ~* J' \; h1 A* h( S" {9 ^20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.0819 R% V' n2 H/ C) y8 H
21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
. F3 i& o" f7 S7 {22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.0752 ?4 s; [1 N4 I3 n7 k9 P9 @
23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071
& V: e8 U. A: ]# p( [! C% M/ G7 C24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
' ~, E, E9 t& I0 [; s/ |25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
6 H2 _- ~9 [" ]7 I" p

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

5 f' a4 a+ K, d/ c- k9 d
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類3 I% S" A4 V  o
10A23456789. X+ }6 a) D: {+ v7 m; A5 [- C
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
$ G9 D* Z0 Q/ S/ A-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137, J% }! d& ^) D/ _
-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
/ F) S  N3 u. B# Y-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166
5 s( E# J8 I0 r-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
) `0 P% h" ?4 z7 j: V! ~-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
$ @/ b5 c* ]& Z( N' e5 [6 N! J-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205  _4 \: d& |7 ]: N
-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217% @( q9 i9 [8 s
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.2282 ~5 N3 X% s, Y# j
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239
$ m# E7 T9 O3 A" ?2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
. ^* X& d; Q. t. Q! i' [: Q3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258
) L) q: w/ O- S* T6 B4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
# y  ~4 ~5 Z! }/ E9 }1 L5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274
( y  U  J( V! x, ~/ w6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281% h$ z; j( Z; {& B
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287* B% t5 K! m) J6 j9 V3 s
8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.2933 W1 J; I/ r4 f$ l# [  s
9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298* l. ]% c$ Y0 }3 D- Y
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302
' p  x% @6 Q5 |" D0 q11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306  w1 G! @* t( [# f
12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308% q, z% @* ]  |  G- ]
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.3103 f& [. E6 [) W& j, P5 c
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
1 G  w5 F, Y5 R* M" t& f15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311' G! F+ O2 _- r+ j* T9 k
16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
- i. H* O# l9 D; h5 k, Q  \7 |17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310
" d6 u+ K$ _. r18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
( s# w7 b9 b; J! k! F- I! z  h1 r/ z1 d19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.3058 w* H5 P6 I9 K
20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301
1 B) m+ q6 l( s: _. o21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
5 q' B3 I/ R. z4 j/ K22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
# U. T4 E3 D; |23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
& Q3 u; J. W" k  h' s+ q, V7 S24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279
5 d5 h& M$ d2 o6 E, d* Z  O25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.2727 J- p  ?- L3 I3 H* j2 }  _

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
avatar
7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
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:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
{:8_286:} {:8_287:} {:8_288:} {:8_289:}
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{:8_313:} {:8_314:} {:8_315:} {:8_316:}
{:8_317:} {:8_318:} {:8_319:} {:8_320:}
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake:
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