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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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1#

第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

# l( C- M0 D) X: [9 Q- w
賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類: v! t' W/ p) ^8 a$ J; Y
10A23456789+ i6 d" G3 q- \) L: O. g8 _
-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.1597 \; u, |- Q: D2 _4 p5 Y/ p' |9 \
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.1469 ~8 X: L( ?( ]1 z
-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.1333 O3 J7 q5 C: O8 F' N
-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
) ^( [6 u" {9 Y2 c8 j/ M-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108
  @* M0 s/ ~+ N) x) O' k4 E' T-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.0969 {, b9 O! \9 [0 z8 [
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085
3 t( D% N8 ~! j2 D0 |/ w2 u-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
/ E) |; A# W6 F0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064
* ~  ^  m" B; c  m: r2 i1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
. C2 e8 P6 E9 |( j' i2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045: {( u9 [- l+ v1 A( ?
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.0366 @4 F+ J4 V6 |  p
4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028! K4 Q( J8 F) X5 E( Z/ n, S9 S
5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020' e# k" o. E, ?9 k+ M+ u
6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
& `2 c( K8 {& V2 [7 H) f# W! B7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007# F8 U* A9 A) u+ d- D
8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001
! v( V: l" z4 X& M7 \+ T9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996  a6 `6 r! E7 ]2 @: D8 \
10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992
5 M. M; Y  ^1 {9 E# {2 m: u6 u! z11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.9880 f: h* O$ |/ g
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.9854 R8 N! S# W5 o. d( g* q
13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.9821 \& T+ |, _  H+ G0 l/ v
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980
$ F3 n1 |9 h' n" J8 \15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
  W0 M: K) |0 X" M$ O5 s16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979  u$ I5 p- u7 x" `" i
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
3 L  D5 p+ t: G6 j  \9 F2 Q7 W( B18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979& n  U+ p+ ?. I2 d* B: I8 b
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
; N& w5 T: c& l7 H, s5 \20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983
3 M, r: g2 Y5 |! `21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986* S' |! o$ a  ]* _: G$ V
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
, f6 N  ^, l+ T" R23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
8 n5 \0 W+ Q2 q" J/ @, N# z* X1 e" u24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
0 A- k( e2 d( ^- \# ]% x. h25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002( z- h' v) `+ t  ~/ X" U

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


2 \! w- I5 f2 X9 L6 I表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
3 ~6 Y* Z& x4 x7 I& Z10A23456789
+ S- M+ U2 ?7 i' \! z' `: y# v-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095
" E4 X6 y; X. q2 n. `6 F-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082
& j. v: H, K4 Z- ~% L' a-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069
- p- w; U8 ]; y( r" g2 K-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056, v. l6 `7 r' r. s  [
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044
0 _; ~; }% m" U3 E0 l) E" J7 m-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032
" L9 H! n0 Y* s-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
$ _6 e; O  n- i( b-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010) F2 ^! v0 g4 `& U4 X" y) r# O
00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000: A: e$ Y4 n  n, j; z- g
1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
4 `) I4 }3 ^# H! ^* k9 N2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.0191 [' w4 d+ C* ~' H! p$ ]- A
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028- ^+ [3 V$ O) `( B% g1 L% W, S
4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036
& X  m. I: M& X" @* U5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044( d- m0 R' _+ Q0 N- e2 G
6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
; w4 T! T2 N0 z# w+ ?) Z7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057" c+ p3 x; f9 G& E
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063
% l1 F7 B- E: d# v# B1 c" G9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068
! I1 _2 u$ A. j' _; \7 L10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072! M2 ~4 }" x. P/ ^! l5 H2 _$ X
11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076; A* b2 Y- G3 M) U1 [
12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079, \! g' z$ N9 T/ }
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082
8 L1 T6 S. C  e3 S7 w: N14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084
+ c% j: P0 Y: X, w- i5 U1 y15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085* y4 s5 N4 A; ]' Y- a, g& o7 ~* O: N
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
3 X% _0 Q  O; t: P" ?17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
1 v9 r& D9 ?* A% h$ U3 o% e18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085* U- ?7 {  A% T) o# }
19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
, S$ U! [/ A* y& |7 {4 ~, T$ e20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
8 l1 |8 ~9 a: V1 v# w' M: E21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
, ]0 z1 [. z% |/ Z9 Z1 p22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075
: u' E1 |) F* U  u2 L23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.0711 a0 I) z$ O9 T) F$ x' \2 ^5 ?
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
; O. @  h3 D+ Z7 Y* V' Y25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062% @. S& M# M  z& ?

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。


2 A0 {% C8 s9 Y4 R2 f0 Y押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類% }! T8 L) {6 d/ W
10A23456789; V* y5 {' p: X  r( l) d* s
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122) s- B5 n+ K' D  A1 _. e
-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
3 a8 Q+ g/ C7 |5 `; a# s-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
2 j, Z' T9 ~7 N-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166
* n/ i; Q3 J, e7 f& v  ]-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180+ I; G' Y( a; Z3 ^( H+ }4 s
-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
- z8 t$ E, q: k-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.2053 B% u& I" B# z1 Z
-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217
% ]: Q- H) @9 \8 d! g0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228
9 |: \& x+ f4 w- }/ J, D1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239% U+ w; j( M) ?1 J8 i; `/ ^
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
0 t5 r8 E, K' g3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.2586 s8 E) s! @' y6 {4 k2 Z
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
9 [0 N- \1 g- s) w6 Z7 p5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274
1 [& J( z! m  t7 ]+ l( y6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.2811 c1 P# _1 j, ~6 h+ J5 r9 x3 W  ?7 ]- d
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287
2 n; A* _# ?0 G, Y: K$ E% V8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
# c4 G8 p) r- u7 M6 z6 I9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298. u; h. @8 G7 j
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.3021 }# P% b( j$ I! M: _8 M
11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.3066 X8 [3 X& @# U. r
12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308( V1 J4 }3 P* v; W: k" R
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310& K3 ^# r- ~7 O+ a. A) C/ J
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.3110 Y; d7 F/ V. V% k4 o4 R
15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
* s7 t/ k, \  Z5 ^; C; N7 R* D16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
( }0 J" c, @9 z+ |% U% Q17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310
4 g1 @9 f) @  X7 M2 i18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
1 _2 u- q0 ?( w+ Y' ^1 S) D19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
0 m8 |# r/ }) f) ?2 |- U20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301
6 L9 E& ?5 k2 g& r, ]21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297: S# _; m. Z: x) \1 Z$ a$ [, Y
22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
  R0 K5 z3 }  \  f23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
2 b) c% W& ^( }24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279
& _+ b& a  \4 O* ~4 ~25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272, T( H+ F! P& ]" Q! Y: z

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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