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[lastpost] => 2804458 比特币和主流加密货币为何下跌：Bitwise（转） 1770450645 22301
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
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$ K9 q' u. N1 Y9 J认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
* E6 a8 c9 U2 V6 r1 |- V5 B" `
( b5 o' G. X s& O9 ^0 \而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富$ a8 k' E2 z# Z3 B# k) s5 ?
+ \& ?+ q3 A& t/ @的千禧一代。6 W7 r3 [. C Y! }* N. q' x/ Z
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB p) u3 f. C4 }( F
8 ]( M m* y2 t' f7 s% C% U的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
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时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
! p6 _9 A! Q6 J& x# Y0 `+ l! \
1 _3 s9 k) Q. }% w1 Q; c! i/ x密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据0 v# z& |- m. W1 N+ \
9 c' W+ y& G: z4 j3 l0 v《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
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- b9 j/ D! J/ w9 Y- Z的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》( E. p- h! t6 i9 {) @
1 Y, E0 U6 m: f) _" `6 e+ |& `; o报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
* n+ }4 m/ ?: H2 p$ W9 \1 d1 m3 S* R) j" K4 x" b3 M/ b+ X( y
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
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ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
$ e% S; h" M0 z/ l% c! r2 G
# u3 y; n% h/ X8 F: }3 h: q据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降/ q }+ Q6 `8 Q X2 b
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息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。 [% n6 A1 x6 @: q
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与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密; v6 a N# a1 k/ t& O
@7 c6 j) T: E0 S* s7 y
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
g2 \# i6 t: J; y$ M+ j P7 l# g, d
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
2 ?* w; z5 H# |3 Y( {8 O/ q1 q1 u8 w( |4 H) w
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一0 L: N6 Y v9 x: y0 m5 {! K z
& a: L9 P1 k4 i" \# C
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
0 `0 @4 i! F/ s
+ L& C' {% ~$ H本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
. q+ c1 T/ y' V% `' R; _* m+ N$ c, t# {2 h" c
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货/ ~" h( I5 U! N
4 B# `8 G' t) l# A; g' d
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致7 L0 |, h0 U! t- {, T) j
" z( }4 F6 l% D: N9 P2 I! a
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
# F I$ ?0 O; y7 f* `. R# E* D/ C$ s1 v- T
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
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