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[lastpost] => 2771288 苹果CEO库克称自己是加密数字货币投资者 持有比特币（转） 1759628471 22301
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加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为* P5 a8 Q# C$ `& u. ?7 f- o
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
- c: l2 _1 R6 x. L+ [; B/ @衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。0 `! C" K, c8 k' ]
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0+ R% r1 ~) |8 C( e, S& Y
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。% F2 _6 @* m$ H1 C- n
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：- c. \: O2 L8 l, N @! s
2024年4月第四次减半3 G3 I2 n9 U; y l/ X3 K+ Q
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
2 Y& g& V3 A. t6 h6 F. K& v可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
# Z9 m' J E8 v5 Z) H针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
$ @3 d7 V# R# c* w二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务* o+ m5 x$ A; z$ k* A& q0 d3 q
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
. E% m1 Z% G x; }) xPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠4 T, ^+ R( }+ g$ l M0 m
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
" z6 X4 u r" N- ^; `" \三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
, _3 n1 H% @, i$ d) S4 ^4 ]; G. n除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统3 x6 f) Z+ Q% o Q# v; |
金融(TradFi)产品。) V) r" W) d" u, {) T
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
; K2 R( O; O. ^7 X _ i0 q- Z7 b9 y链桥」的项目。
' i" D$ X7 i. p2 m9 y+ t四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
( [: ~+ s) x c8 o8 C模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作6 {8 o, H: K t0 I) q
等。
, m+ i/ A" C- U. H1 WPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用, Y0 v" B" ^3 T* w, `
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。7 H* `, M# c. x. _
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
7 d" n8 f3 ?- QPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
3 } p! A o2 P- F9 y2 R数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
# U; \& _2 A. `* w. yPantera点名了几个项目：
, r/ P4 O* U' x l* sHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
# w3 B& b8 t0 H' ?; C" _. d FBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
1 I( P. {& V/ o' _$ H* a7 iModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
: K3 j) r0 i N+ _) W' \The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
7 I, z6 @" D4 |, N0 E nRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游- P' N9 z9 V& M( O
六、小型公链需专注特定应用
5 L! j0 ^! w2 A- f7 y& B* b. Y3 Z$ FPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚6 A: v+ m/ Z; U" ~6 j. S5 r
至能直接与L2竞争。4 ]& g3 s6 Z/ U* R8 ?2 T; K
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
5 O2 [. y& W' C* `. g) U2 hPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
% [% L5 i$ v9 S5 b成为「应用链」。- ~3 w" ]* f) z- n+ I
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
3 c+ `. Z. ^% w3 f9 x3 R
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