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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
$ ~" w( b3 W U9 c" t5 ^: H $ S$ g5 t( v* [* t o, n3 l/ ^
平手中水,主队有利, P4 Z2 q b8 i8 U. g( t5 [3 G; ~
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
8 j. ~. k+ [! Z9 ]( }7 \ \ 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:1 X! e9 G" t- e
英超主队- f3 T1 z ?4 B, a3 c* j/ f7 j
胜:13场 48%( z0 z, K. D* q( x w/ Z
平:5场 17%
! i& _$ b) C7 w1 e$ T9 ]7 c: x 负:9场 35%
6 Y" c% ?# ?% V* p2 z/ ^ 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。; i/ e- K T( p$ \
* {$ N! U9 [; P0 ?; a
一、初盘阶段: G. w3 `0 t- ]) g
具体到水位如下:
/ t4 f' n+ S2 z6 N 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
5 H8 A+ A$ Y; X' S% Y 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负' q. D M- f! P" r, i% C
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
* }& F- J0 p! p4 V. g6 O
) I6 L. q7 ]8 e9 M# {" [ 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。7 n5 L) Q3 n0 W. ]- E
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。 T1 `" F- f8 e P
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
: y) I: X: K2 [; _! r( ]0 n
8 {% i. J9 `9 z$ o/ S% S7 w 二、临场阶段2 t% ?" _- ] e6 O. g _4 {' J* k
9 u0 v& _. o- _" _
具体到变盘和水位如下:
! p+ q* m7 J" c; a( f% X/ \ 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负" U# p0 R5 y+ g8 y3 H0 i
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
- ~2 c: B) |+ W
5 C7 h5 d: X% t' e: u! B 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。9 Y& L8 \: ?/ T8 A: P7 v
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:& C+ M' W- A, C* D
0 X4 Z. B+ J4 z
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿0 o n0 L3 t* T
初盘:0.82平手1.04
$ ^0 t2 S3 K0 y 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85" r% V9 Z3 S9 I: Z8 }. K0 M
0 l/ G+ N, i* U! R6 R4 b7 }8 B 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆! f% w' e9 n6 d9 H7 y1 i8 {
初盘:0.76平手1.10* J/ H' X1 E, E; o' ]+ P
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
% _0 U \& p8 s , X) P9 a& Z; J# C& j
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
N& G! j% ^! N 初盘:0.82平手1.04
9 ?# x' R) A' T: W, q 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
+ v9 e% @- o( s7 S
# m7 b; O- _" w. Y6 ? 伯恩利2-1西汉姆' {1 w3 O$ \& m. l
初盘:0.88平手0.98
$ J0 k9 i. X a' b4 d! I+ b 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
$ |$ ]+ l1 x! R4 _& H# A# [* U 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
' ]7 V+ F& r4 C6 T Y7 Q2 r8 g 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
& [9 P& ?! i( u$ x/ d& c$ i 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
0 ^# t. t5 o1 m$ I1 c
2 i, k+ g* `* t1 d; A 三、球队表现* k a7 u1 u* A% m ?: W8 A
: v+ V# _8 b! f" i# D7 i6 M
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。% w; r5 S- v7 T0 s8 V3 M
$ d: a. R0 ?: j: s 四、投注要点( ~, P& a' P# X0 h/ s8 O/ Z
要点1:平手中水、主多不败
6 Q+ R" ~" q# L 要点2:平手降盘、走两头. E* O2 C$ y; [. U% Y: Y
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
. `! P! v2 x) x1 ?4 t 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大0 y$ H( X M, C, G& ]
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
# u- `) x, B6 r7 X; E0 q) m7 X 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大0 q0 J' u% K2 y7 K8 K% K% T9 ` [
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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