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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘( M2 ^/ l" F- R4 ~) d# g+ ~0 }
     
! j/ p! W3 l. c+ U' O     平手中水,主队有利# [1 w& P2 H+ H8 G
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
: }  O  g/ v: N6 }' n$ g     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
7 I% r( i, d! e6 K0 U9 a: a0 G% Q* n. z" U* p     英超主队
' _5 |  i; z) `' ^4 d' ^     胜:13场 48%$ j  L1 F8 Y* Z2 g. h4 l6 f6 [
     平:5场 17%
  }( U- ^* D7 o  E) X( W     负:9场 35%) H2 ^8 v6 Q- ]) i' z! V+ C
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
6 b4 l/ k* Q, O# N2 w' X) \     
* ]  d7 k: j4 O& P2 m- z     一、初盘阶段
# B0 E1 b) N* F2 T     具体到水位如下:) I  R/ Z4 v, [$ ^. j
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
% I6 r$ p/ o  [0 |) A& r3 w6 v     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
( Z- c; ]9 ]% n& E! Z4 w; j% G     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负8 u! Y( W* t, Q5 f! E7 i$ u3 w
     
+ e: Q' l% @" `* m8 B% i; Q8 a! J     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
2 w+ f1 p$ T% R* Y# m     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。9 e6 ?% ?7 M; J( P
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
" ?3 Q% g3 `* K9 u     
1 U; T- s( f7 D* L6 n     二、临场阶段
  Z" r+ _+ b3 B: h$ L2 N6 W' M     
" Y1 |' y8 g, ^8 `$ f     具体到变盘和水位如下:
, t& _% o; z- @     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负4 _- X8 C1 ~5 L" z& t% _# {
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
. r  W' P* c0 U- f% d9 B0 p     6 O3 u! t( u  s7 E
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。, D! ]  m) w' L  L* h: v8 F
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:/ a) g8 C* ~9 a8 ?" @6 i
     
* o3 c) @9 i4 T$ f- e     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿  j& H- L8 u7 _
     初盘:0.82平手1.04' }5 ?5 X8 Q" L! `2 d. [
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.858 |1 {5 M% c2 F% P6 w: K# V
     
  k4 W- V) l. k( \# w     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆$ U) f9 h. ?5 [/ u, A2 u
     初盘:0.76平手1.10+ F' I( u0 B9 Z/ g
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
* R/ ~8 p7 X, \" H" A5 M& r     
8 u. Z( M, F( G% C/ H     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技, k; P' N7 K' ?+ a1 q( F" C% b& ?. k
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
% T# E  m8 J. B# b. X2 l+ l     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.986 a6 i" @; X, O% E& e
     - f2 U% f; ?' V3 K& W
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆* Q4 l! q! N- Z! T" l+ b, r# w
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
" I: t9 {) |- L& ~+ U/ R     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
  W* e$ c7 M% ~) u6 Z* B     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
$ n. C, _6 X  M; V) g" P     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
* j- ^1 {4 A2 a$ A  Z- h2 w     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。$ M7 D; W0 ~, {9 U" |
     . u8 V* {0 K. M% p5 D* m
     三、球队表现) |) f: }2 y. V9 I0 A
     
# u8 e3 u6 W# v: R+ G     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。( `) K8 [9 X$ A3 U8 N
     
' o1 `$ u* _$ L$ Z# O. a+ J. ]     四、投注要点+ K7 S4 I  }* e5 ]& e' g0 O$ m
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败5 [  N% D, P' Y$ M  a: x% W. R9 |
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
" t8 D! A$ ]1 A     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败; j0 B) q9 J) y+ [7 a
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
7 l) y1 v- ^+ j0 k  Y3 o     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任6 _" L$ p2 i9 Z
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大9 z3 D0 R& t% p2 e
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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