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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘% C9 `7 y! h$ H
. L3 `/ [0 V' G8 `
平手中水,主队有利- [/ L M+ j9 P5 h6 |
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
* J& g! `4 @5 X" P 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:8 ~! J( i2 a* @9 _- h
英超主队! I e; P3 U- t/ F
胜:13场 48% f) K, u0 i0 V2 `; O7 R) B$ i# {
平:5场 17%. M1 Q+ y1 p- x
负:9场 35%9 R$ T$ f- N! E$ T. T, w
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。4 f: u0 v6 S# K: g+ W5 C1 c
& v+ J+ L" @% l5 N8 |1 q) B
一、初盘阶段' ^0 U, b" o; F: M p) U. T1 d
具体到水位如下:( i( k* u. d7 Y! I! V- k0 U
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负% k$ W8 I6 V" h$ v: h- B
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负& J+ o7 R( R } ? c* ]' [
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
+ d, Z- Y6 Z+ ?" F 9 G; a- q: U! N: b' B" L/ j
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。' \) b" U: F. Q% _- X0 x. ~! g6 Q
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。; T& v3 d1 F& ~4 D( B5 X
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。/ K6 Y+ `8 l) S3 A$ @( D
, ~5 X" g/ J4 n# X" Q
二、临场阶段
( P9 Y3 x2 f. U Y! |3 d6 Z. J 5 M0 L e7 c2 F& v1 J# ^
具体到变盘和水位如下:2 G, C) ]0 c1 q$ C6 S4 t: b" q
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负1 X# n& |' y8 _5 w
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
1 T/ q% Y# w1 F5 i, _9 {! s3 {
o) ^" d- i/ Z+ ^" p 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
4 }( m V9 F$ b# \ 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:9 H* ], P4 e- P9 b h
& G6 ^' u7 K- }" G 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
# L- G7 T5 K2 h/ f3 @ 初盘:0.82平手1.04
( B& ]) q0 d# j+ @' z5 b6 a 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.853 \& V! v D M+ \4 ?& M$ l0 U* d
3 P7 U) D$ z2 b( y
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
& q) }" x8 A% _; n 初盘:0.76平手1.10
& P- t3 k! g' i$ ~/ p1 y- i 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91+ u" C% G4 m6 [* j
* X1 k1 i# {6 n& \2 A
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
7 h7 Q% U; v) B# m 初盘:0.82平手1.04
+ k8 W# n+ F, p 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
& v& o* N9 V* a8 G3 S7 g, k 6 P i# n; u( d7 R' x
伯恩利2-1西汉姆 q$ E9 F( V# o; F
初盘:0.88平手0.989 @+ V* D& v! E
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
) n( N8 `/ T* L0 R4 H! ~! ~& v4 G \ 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。) b2 e. A) S$ {* w- C- `! y
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
8 j5 W( K8 k1 G+ Q- o 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
! E4 Y, T2 m1 R( X/ O / t" y' t; R" y% y3 w+ q( q
三、球队表现0 x9 m1 n* ]2 Y8 s
! ~. |) Q1 o& w7 j( h' g u+ J- P 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
/ f. z: J; a _( P
8 ], {2 f9 m! t# B' E- n: Q, X+ v 四、投注要点3 V& F1 k A; A! A/ d' y$ M6 H
要点1:平手中水、主多不败6 M" z4 K1 u1 u4 \. a
要点2:平手降盘、走两头( e' }3 u7 i+ p$ k, H( ?
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
' _6 V* ?$ [- o$ n' o/ Q 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
4 i! {* \; ~& Y 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任# `# J; X& V7 X, A4 u M
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大( i- E! m$ q- Q) J
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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