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[lastpost] => 2783193 比特币还需要什么条件才能涨？（转） 1763657409 caoch
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% t0 Y' P5 {5 w' U3 C/ G- Q4 h3 x: p' D5 j
8 g( W! g$ v. x3 g. v, f1 \; f* L" p 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，
/ e0 V- g/ V+ J/ @3 G! F; n+ D# w' g% q
" l6 I% C$ G' B2 i# }形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于4 R- O0 \7 Q# W
% s# A- @% l# Y8 V6 |7 p逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政+ y% O! Q7 Z1 V7 q
4 j) r0 {5 F1 n1 A5 b: q9 V8 }策的确定性。
) [- P4 J2 N( a5 h2 i$ H7 t1 V8 L1 H. X9 w9 f
中信证券主要观点如下：$ [4 K0 M; q2 i d- B& K6 U1 q- V
, b9 r0 b" m: m! t 加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。& C' \* o1 F: z) [9 o" M# y
- k! n7 q( z: h6 n* ^ 自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。
# G+ R4 I" u+ O0 m
$ {/ Z0 h' s' o. V 近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。
$ R' Z1 r# ^4 P' i) z# n1 d, x! {) f( k' x: s' \
2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现. w+ ^" G9 m# c+ U, O! O* P
: `0 e( l4 g7 q' s- ?0 X! C不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。
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2 a4 @0 c; o5 K" ^ 加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。
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从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。2 e/ U% F% [/ O6 r, g
7 C4 Z/ b6 s# p/ s0 t5 z" z- K 加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。
4 a; d' \8 t. l8 k3 P6 }. K- ^3 ^, I/ _5 j& t
由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫
4 g- G! h% D; _1 g& g4 X# x( e" j# M1 i) G7 y
破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。* l {$ I# l0 K) u' m% @( |+ m
* b W' f L9 Q2 n 短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。
4 |, X* G2 D' `6 l0 v
% g1 R% `8 s* C$ Q 我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性& n- l" U# e8 i
4 z% A" G: f' x p' g共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。3 ?3 h" Q& r V0 z) v$ P
# _5 t+ b! m* W2 E2 f
长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。8 f8 V# B* l7 ~' q7 ^
* ^# c4 q0 {. }5 x" x
2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣
* x+ w( n% ?+ }0 F0 g( `0 W8 v, t$ [8 r3 {8 S+ a
势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。
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展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。* F# Q2 P T y$ _+ z1 P, [" R
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本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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. r" R6 A0 U3 J" x- y- y) _7 A/ L! c7 ?策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。/ j$ w& {; ^- e
0 v! |* r) d' m7 K) Z# J0 g 风险因素：- ^ m: S1 x( g9 s" J; c
7 l3 f! D; d; E/ S4 i% E- }
特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。; e4 l& w. j& E: n2 k
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