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[lastpost] => 2806956 比特币和山寨币100倍加密货币回报的时代已经结束（转） 1771235676 g9527
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% A5 `- u, S' u% O" r1 K0 Q* v* O 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，
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形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于
$ k' \7 R* n7 N& z( a. A
7 c( v% V: P& r逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政
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$ L1 D- g/ b6 l+ V A! U/ A; v策的确定性。8 b. H0 Z6 L x. N
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中信证券主要观点如下：
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- u, w6 j7 {0 w2 F6 C/ v 加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。$ I6 ?$ F' W- P9 z) C* n
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自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。* _1 U8 j# H* H6 S* J9 W3 q7 u2 x
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近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。
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2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现
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% M9 H2 C9 n4 O0 E& g$ N; t不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。2 M* x1 a) r( x: i! d$ p9 U
% N) I0 p+ W% J3 b8 i* g 加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。# ^" B+ f4 q k% [9 P/ `/ q
' I( w4 I# m; P2 o6 r8 } l- W 从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。% N, o y6 Y% k6 ^
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加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。& \; P+ R, e5 C. u, w- E
( z' z; I, i6 b& R) v7 O4 c9 b/ z 由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫
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破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。
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) Z7 f) f" y1 G/ A$ e; |% U 短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。
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$ K- H4 O1 Y' T 我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性% \/ {+ Q, P( ^' |5 p% b
- v2 K' G! ?- c* ?共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。! u# L' n# Q: s' c& w# a3 \
$ a0 w. T4 W0 q7 V4 n 长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。; B9 _0 }. p; ]7 v) e; [
l# J/ g, Y F- c0 T0 | Y 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣
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# ?5 M. g5 Y8 G* W+ w势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。7 q# F$ g3 Z7 v) \$ e
# a1 Z. e$ v( I! K. S Y. u 展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。
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本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。4 ]3 f; P! F6 V" _8 W9 {6 p5 X: G& W) w
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风险因素：
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特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。7 w8 ]' D) E4 N
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