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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。6 s: @* T9 u5 `0 W
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。2 t/ t* T' n$ W
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
% d! h) y9 d8 q# O2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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来源：Alphractal& O$ X* _9 X8 L' B8 f+ ?
8 s" x; w* R2 _" u2 h# m) V# W, E15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。) z8 X( s& `' h; m1 C! C1 t3 c7 i0 Q, I( ~
# s$ N, g7 |& s- f! U: W事情变得有趣了# l& w5 H3 N) C
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。) u# Y2 a* ^3 W% `1 Q6 i
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来源：X
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* f. y3 B. l: i3 f- W根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。: l% d. P! F @, z
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。# q5 j' A N' `0 |# }9 z7 ^, u- ?
, y9 I( h' d/ U1 U- f; F8 u正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。1 o7 j' Z" G. b# v) k, u3 V9 n
" t( m4 z/ t6 A H/ m, _! \随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。; ^) {4 o! o9 D! M1 [" g2 X1 f3 `
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
* G' Y+ w# c& E0 |8 q经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。6 c8 u5 f2 r; V" P( P
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来源：TradingView
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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) p) [* C, {! X5 q然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。# j* p) U% ~2 d: `# A! F
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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