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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。/ g9 ?# K6 j! i8 [- R3 }
0 O8 U; \$ O( @. q& }# @但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。1 P% I! q p9 T; G, o' l/ I3 f
9 h% |: h* X8 z9 |" m1 Z, WUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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6 K% j+ U2 w E6 A* p开局艰难，但历史看好牛市: O% o6 E* Y- x- K
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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来源：Alphractal( W5 d% v- Y) |* ^* Q
! O* X+ l4 k. W15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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事情变得有趣了
% m6 d, s3 ?0 {8 M# }2 UBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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& d2 X$ }# W9 V; L) M6 z来源：X
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。% k6 r3 R+ P% L* m/ X5 X
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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7 A3 F0 P5 M" R- [: R8 w随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。/ T7 K1 y. F' U4 n$ \, A
# v, ]9 g9 m+ O空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
+ e/ m& ?, ]$ N/ f/ e! O, N经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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# x$ `: p0 ]! V q来源：TradingView8 f% `3 f8 O9 S/ G/ o0 j* z
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。' l3 |) L$ ~. s
6 d# ~* i7 n- Y" G8 e$ t1 l然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。5 U2 m0 R( v& n! `9 S
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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