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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。+ C, G) z# h' E$ Q8 j/ Q

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) R/ ]7 |8 J& C西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:  u, t: T; E5 k( K+ s+ U

7 V7 g; [! X5 c: ~/ ~" C2 U皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% . r/ a/ q2 S( d+ {

' R  Z4 v9 D% P9 m5 k很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?; Y, Q% s' f' u4 p' D# ]! b

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盈利可能性. Q" p5 F% b9 l

) r/ g' E( ^: Z+ s: r% k: W对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。# z' R9 [/ q- \! b

& K' C9 B; ?3 d: U6 v增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。! `- k$ T1 j2 ?3 g  Y  V

! c7 R' u/ @: H4 |, U. s6 I. N8 x5 W你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?6 m& l5 W1 C+ G# P6 C2 |2 S7 _) u3 N# g
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么  {/ R3 E0 U& n( Z' g0 B

7 |3 v( h$ F; l7 y: h3 Z$ Y40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
8 f2 M% M9 @- J# x60%的机会你会一无所有
! Q5 w: S% O0 y4 Y( O9 H; P预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
8 b0 p$ _: [4 `. l由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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5 |/ }$ j8 F- B' d3 o增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。6 M$ x5 s4 W+ n6 K6 `
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基于增值的投注; x( F, A- l5 E* \/ H

# K+ Q4 R& @' P- G. M) n凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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9 ^3 h" `) |0 f3 O公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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! K+ h7 F1 b! j% T* a1 MA=博彩资金& i4 |% C, h' F! k  V& G
P=获胜机会. z6 u; X7 p' d5 V2 J
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)1 l% y; ?( ^. `9 p0 J
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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4 `$ g) F, c6 v) C& \& {好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。# b$ ?( \- u+ Z+ c7 W
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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! W6 R9 y1 k6 Y5 t' ]+ V! ^A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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9 L) |" l3 ~& U* RA=0
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$ H* |0 {( `: q) D* p' `2 f结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢5 u( Q4 {7 L: g

9 l1 N  I' a4 x. D/ F2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2). \* l/ o) g, Y
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A=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去" T0 e5 h$ O" M6 f

3 a" S# ]! K) k! H3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)5 R- B& f! P( ^7 p  ?! ^
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2
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9 a, F8 M2 Y3 u! s: u3 l9 G9 P结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好1 k  ?1 \9 m5 W# V" Z1 G5 ]4 Z
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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