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小分3种情况:9 [5 ^# F6 ~8 s- p( \
9 t/ a h% J$ s2 A
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
2 Y- b, h- |, |6 m& F
6 ]9 H* e+ ~! `& }: B A2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
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3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
* P% ^- z8 u! x- p: r* Q" ^; C' d. H6 u1 @
2张牌8或9点的情况有:
) T; w j5 e; a" u6 m3 _1 [3 Q. H, J8 o5 ]4 V5 y
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10! x5 [; y5 c- u% Q; ]
; N2 @" }( ^) k& I( N
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415+ h# H3 }: g" Q9 i! s4 E2 b
* n7 A- Z" n* t) H2 V4 Z/ C- \
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415/ o G; T9 p( T9 P3 G. k% r
+ U* \5 n; E' [) {8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415: D% a$ o, Y- m& o. u0 X5 _: }
3 ^- ^. T' l5 T4 F由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
+ C9 m# Q, e- S( S, K2 j$ h g6 Z; u1 k. ?6 ^4 l
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
/ L" A3 ]( {* \" T" W" z! x! @$ j9 f) _' @
那么我们可以得出
' C) v8 r, h- w T
" g; \' o" l% S7 g7 [1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
2 l3 c8 M( S3 `! S) ]8 z2 Y
. x( I3 N# b: d6 q) a" z2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 " B& B! x, z8 ?$ ^. U z2 C$ U% q
) a0 {' D6 c- s( L: A7 v( m
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
! d$ b2 ]( s: h0 `* ]$ B6 t5 S" ~ u3 q5 g0 l' \# b
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
8 n( V& j2 _/ a, Z, V4 n+ t$ h( \6 T6 D V* L3 O
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
; Z+ m: T' K/ t7 ^ |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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