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[lastpost] => 2787745 阿联酋Ruya银行成为首家提供应用内比特币交易的符合伊斯兰教法的银行(转) 1765255358 小作文
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从目前来看,比特币利好叙事无非是三大类,降息、, |9 \1 P9 B; S6 X" C0 q) n0 u' w
+ {' X" g3 a; m减半与ETF,除了讨论颇多的ETF,其他利好也均已开始4 F: v' F3 n- R4 S
1 N* N a G; w& @) j$ q7 A落地。/ E% n/ E4 ^0 O# X
% ?$ E. G! X! o4 K5 ]在降息方向,宏观市场的预测逐步实现。在12月13日的, ^( l' r: C, U! {. |% l
" ~' r/ B) E i. H8 q7 d( H美联储新闻发布会上,利率仍维持在 5.25%-5.50% 的0 ~' t8 v5 a3 Z' d3 e
( O' k5 C2 b( v) p) j I
当前区间,成为今年度第四次暂停加息的月份。其中,; c% _+ g8 M, l8 i) e# m8 t% T
2 @0 f Y# Z9 r+ m8 S5 r, O1 E
鲍威尔的鸽派转变明显,明确表示货币政策紧缩已经基
8 l0 Y7 ^* r- W7 H
9 P1 l+ V5 C, z$ \本结束,利率可能会在长时间保持,但降息现在已经进
1 q5 F1 t/ x# I2 B" S+ x1 O9 t0 q) p6 q0 `, a
入考虑范围。7 c' b9 A7 p5 @2 t) M! m v$ C
2 V+ z& N! }* l7 D/ B [8 t: v 除了利率公告外,美联储同时披露了季度更新的经济
! S$ k( l; @6 p+ m3 H% U- N& y- |
预测。目前美联储预计2023年核心通胀率为 3.2%,而三
: o W6 Y+ t, m
; L- x. P- v# E! Q个月前的预期为 3.7%,预计2024年的最终增长率为 2.4%,* ^) h' h) `: v, ?
& f! I/ Y1 [! M9 A0 x而之前为2.6%。% ^4 n' z' Q- u+ x! ^: O
, G) _5 e# U" W: H+ n1 f2 F+ Z& Z宏观方向的利好对于风险市场的影响尤为显著。在今年# D! r+ b. M$ D9 [3 @9 v: O
9 n0 i' @* K( Z4 H接近一整年的紧缩周期中,边缘地区股债双杀、本土金融
' n$ ?% ?9 N7 E( Z8 A8 o6 C7 E N8 c, K8 S: g9 r
机构破产、黄金价格的大幅上涨均源于此,而比特币作为
0 e& n. y4 w. y3 i5 `" R- w# w; s+ E, P* i- ?( f& C5 |
与美股联动性强的标的,对此反应也极为激烈。在上一轮( |+ d; R, L, K( G& Y; T
% k, H* W% A; r周期中,比特币冲至6.4万美元高点,除了传统资金进入,6 d; z' G2 ^2 |( ~+ x! w( p
1 v# ]( n/ A- ?/ `2 E8 H9 {
也有宏观宽松流动性增强的关键助推。事实也如出一辙,9 X m c$ g" ~- `, x( v j- p, n
! n9 ~4 a* E) C9 P0 K4 F
在新闻发布会后,比特币再度反弹至4.3万美元以上,24 小
l3 p6 l/ \4 d5 U; u' B7 n
% u9 h( I! V; n" s$ r时涨幅超过4%,现报42582美元。' P: ^ H0 z C$ x+ Z
7 z1 b" s+ k1 C& ?, _
与前两者直接利好相比,减半这一确定性极高的利好反而影
, d) ~2 d# ^" m& w. G: [. h
& g0 J8 f: }. ]5 @, f响相对较少。BTC仅有2100万的总供应量,但矿工的发行速0 }. c1 v7 x" [
0 M9 Y+ X1 [7 x0 d8 W3 O度会跟随算力提升不断加速,BTC开采率将迅速飙升,而随6 I" j* j- u, n. z' _7 G
; @3 U; w4 l2 t. V7 G3 I! m
着供应增加,通胀也会随之而来。截至目前,矿工们已经挖4 F. g' w- u1 Z5 V+ f P8 o! M
9 T% ?+ A k" t
掘了近 90% 的比特币总供应量。为了维持发行速度、增加
7 R- N: z; O. e' L. Y0 s' k% D3 D
稀缺性以及降低通胀率,在设计之初,中本聪就设定了每个* C! s; R. |+ p3 C
* q. a; B+ j5 r5 K
区块中发行的比特币数量会定期减半,在预定的区块高度之
# k8 ^1 }; i- r5 J6 E u9 p$ Z0 j {* ]" r
后,区块中发行的比特币数量将减少到前一数量的50%,基
" ` J1 J3 X7 l& X
8 O. K L" c" g5 s( ]本每4年或每 21 万个区块后会发生一次新的减半,长期来看,
A. m' P* R t. l& W
) u! S% F) d; w( g! o* H预计2140年比特币将全部开采完成。
0 I( q T, R( X0 w+ d& N, D( u {* V+ H5 n, p) `3 q
在众多机构的猜测中,若配合降息带来的流动性与ETF的通
t( o1 e, N: A* N8 f- ?+ w! J4 M2 p5 a9 a
过,比特币有望再次创下新高。尽管10万美元这个点,早在之5 }' Z* N/ K2 j) E
) T7 ]; y: e! i, l8 A+ i0 I前就已成为加密宣传的口号,但VanEck仍在对2024的预测中表
7 {* ~5 p# r9 |+ y9 Z& u. r' K6 R9 K
示,ETF将会通过,比特币有望在明年第四季度达到10 万美元,
, m1 A# {. z7 Z
& m7 Z) k% f1 ]2 o考虑到去年其对低点与高点的预测相对准确,该预测存在一定可
9 d2 T' Q+ Z4 R0 x2 C9 F
T" P4 \& L; b" F4 u5 ^3 @, P实现性,渣打银行、Matrixport、比特小陆、Bitwise均对此有类
, N; _/ p. s6 s( T3 p4 R4 Q) v6 P/ b9 o7 ~( L& c
似表述。3 p; m3 }7 \: D9 V6 z
. z' F/ ]1 P9 r: M& N6 O8 v7 Q
/ _4 X, x r- o8 m4 I3 e
由于矿工每4年就会减少一半的区块收益,收益减少反向推动算& v. z- h, ~# V: c& w2 d# u
; o" h' k7 ?4 @" y+ d力降低与成本上升,从而进一步减缓挖矿速率。减半后稀缺性会
1 O0 T3 w L* c+ Q
7 k2 T( S3 p: U# t随之增加,大型矿工也会倾向于囤币而非卖出,投资者对于其的3 H4 A: {: Z1 Q
- x' D9 k9 W7 C' }& v2 G( `
价值预期也会水涨船高。在有史记录的3次减半中,均在一定程度
+ K- F& ~$ i* C4 O+ v; M3 u
- H1 }- h# f2 t' X' W3 B上成为了牛市的引火线,市场对于第四次减半显然关注度较高。
5 W5 k' \+ @' y" i! F6 `% `* U+ @- d9 ?. v& | r9 t2 x4 |4 ?7 M
预计第四次减半将发生在2024年的4-5月份,届时创建一个区块的 \9 d6 c8 {. t7 ?( z. P: g9 A
) H1 A9 {0 e3 B1 F' @! q/ X奖励减少到3.125个BTC。
: h. h! G1 U# L8 A4 {, ~+ r. T$ K* m+ V: s
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