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[lastpost] => 2785721 神秘“绿点”帖子引发了关于股票回购和比特币销售的辩论(转) 1765275368 g9527
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从目前来看,比特币利好叙事无非是三大类,降息、0 R$ F& n- ]6 V& H1 T, x3 O
: F& c# X9 t- }4 V4 a' i5 t9 n减半与ETF,除了讨论颇多的ETF,其他利好也均已开始 I+ b r1 b! |
7 L; k/ V1 F+ q+ V- F: d0 x' h/ @
落地。1 ^6 p" q0 }1 w$ s
8 ]/ k( _" A; ?# b$ x5 u
在降息方向,宏观市场的预测逐步实现。在12月13日的
( r6 X9 L) Q' ~! y# o& [7 ]0 S' ?7 B: G! [7 V
美联储新闻发布会上,利率仍维持在 5.25%-5.50% 的% {4 y& T, u9 j+ C; u9 ^
3 E" t+ g: k8 u' ^) \0 \/ w& Q% R
当前区间,成为今年度第四次暂停加息的月份。其中,
: E' g( U* h+ P4 |" z+ @# T' |' t; E( j5 Y& J2 ]9 Q& u! X2 n
鲍威尔的鸽派转变明显,明确表示货币政策紧缩已经基% Q# z" M% P9 Q& \; M* r9 @
. @# `5 Z% \$ u+ f. \' K本结束,利率可能会在长时间保持,但降息现在已经进( K( x- j) r8 l3 h3 x
/ S5 g0 ~* y1 c. x4 B+ J' N
入考虑范围。
7 z# ]! p: ~. w
* r, a0 o% F j, b! D 除了利率公告外,美联储同时披露了季度更新的经济
$ B$ R* g9 |& |4 I& w9 G- q
5 E4 [4 {$ P0 l% @8 l }% `预测。目前美联储预计2023年核心通胀率为 3.2%,而三
1 ]# p9 S5 q/ f% j9 e9 T, P2 R' ?% U3 ^3 Y& S: I
个月前的预期为 3.7%,预计2024年的最终增长率为 2.4%,( D) C6 x% \1 F$ A
: J$ N4 `8 \* T* f而之前为2.6%。2 G0 Y1 H% S7 x
) Z3 l% @7 z+ p宏观方向的利好对于风险市场的影响尤为显著。在今年$ a/ R4 I6 M; P- }4 }4 M2 l/ g
" T q- A& _8 c, l# ^8 x
接近一整年的紧缩周期中,边缘地区股债双杀、本土金融
3 h/ n$ M y: c. ?4 _. p" [6 P+ {) G# r$ C5 E8 @& R0 |' |% I
机构破产、黄金价格的大幅上涨均源于此,而比特币作为
2 R4 W. n& m3 Y6 Y+ s9 M, g9 D4 l: _. v( w8 h: E% R
与美股联动性强的标的,对此反应也极为激烈。在上一轮
, W9 X7 Q1 R; f% R) A( P& I% g
9 _% g! Z) J; E1 ]) ]1 r/ a$ C周期中,比特币冲至6.4万美元高点,除了传统资金进入,
& I: u4 @* \1 W3 z, N
" X8 P. l- l% Z: e! U- h也有宏观宽松流动性增强的关键助推。事实也如出一辙,6 X$ t' l$ u5 _; ]' G0 C2 g
) X# h: A5 p+ L( f7 O在新闻发布会后,比特币再度反弹至4.3万美元以上,24 小; h3 Z3 b6 C5 Y7 F8 {% K
4 e# N3 e+ u7 e' _
时涨幅超过4%,现报42582美元。# O6 Q. a* |- W0 A M6 S% W+ {
2 C# p) W& X3 g7 e9 V+ `3 z与前两者直接利好相比,减半这一确定性极高的利好反而影% S3 J8 Y; o, W; ]
3 J- Q- C2 K8 ~响相对较少。BTC仅有2100万的总供应量,但矿工的发行速
; O, E5 B0 G1 g/ m! \& q+ i/ G" A8 c6 f5 j. L1 Z
度会跟随算力提升不断加速,BTC开采率将迅速飙升,而随
- f$ L0 d/ h2 X. v3 ], [9 s
3 M* A# T, Z# B1 ]着供应增加,通胀也会随之而来。截至目前,矿工们已经挖
+ H$ F7 P. r: a. k( c/ L& R! I) V& x# C
掘了近 90% 的比特币总供应量。为了维持发行速度、增加" _1 c- f+ @' T: i: k) z3 S
/ X. a; x1 j- _1 P7 _! ]7 W; f稀缺性以及降低通胀率,在设计之初,中本聪就设定了每个5 Q) d5 X; K5 a) _$ L
5 k# W3 x& h# ]) o
区块中发行的比特币数量会定期减半,在预定的区块高度之5 s( k2 M2 d4 J. P# {* e
$ } C; @* b& k5 g/ X! i8 |2 q
后,区块中发行的比特币数量将减少到前一数量的50%,基
$ Q2 J( \1 [0 _( h0 k# d9 [5 C/ D' {& O2 O$ ?0 i$ s
本每4年或每 21 万个区块后会发生一次新的减半,长期来看,
9 k* O' K1 N2 ?$ o3 {
# B G: E: k9 r! \3 q预计2140年比特币将全部开采完成。$ u0 c8 W' C) l @
4 H' A* j) w' _5 o+ j4 D' @8 u
在众多机构的猜测中,若配合降息带来的流动性与ETF的通2 s: ^) A( w0 |
6 p3 ~+ k: ]$ N3 u- E% m过,比特币有望再次创下新高。尽管10万美元这个点,早在之
* W% b- Y$ O- R, I) C
5 Z K1 r( a. [5 ^* ]. i前就已成为加密宣传的口号,但VanEck仍在对2024的预测中表5 r& R9 K' `. g9 L. p
. h3 Z6 I$ Z8 v- j7 M$ g9 L
示,ETF将会通过,比特币有望在明年第四季度达到10 万美元,
+ |! z- a/ Y0 s% p2 i; T" T& Q
4 [1 J: H) V9 T- g. t2 w考虑到去年其对低点与高点的预测相对准确,该预测存在一定可1 C0 r" d% g4 P5 J1 }( U F8 h( E! \
* T, X% Y$ p0 h& N7 o; l; |' z
实现性,渣打银行、Matrixport、比特小陆、Bitwise均对此有类
: I4 L+ A% e* Q9 i
3 n$ n* }& @: X+ T3 L- @" e4 p8 l似表述。 d3 B4 o" A) y8 W- e, j' s6 R8 G
6 m! \4 K8 N/ ]! _' s2 D; g8 x- ?) ~+ w
由于矿工每4年就会减少一半的区块收益,收益减少反向推动算$ G) ^( Q7 T. ^! Z" L v
- [ }& s S" U3 D+ {8 p
力降低与成本上升,从而进一步减缓挖矿速率。减半后稀缺性会
% k1 ~9 @1 Q; ^
$ S! s8 U2 {" t' b$ k# ] C随之增加,大型矿工也会倾向于囤币而非卖出,投资者对于其的
5 A; O0 H2 Q- w0 r; e- z$ ?9 m+ J
/ J8 H8 K# z e8 R# {* r价值预期也会水涨船高。在有史记录的3次减半中,均在一定程度& F2 `0 ~( { i
* Z. P9 N# {! r& [上成为了牛市的引火线,市场对于第四次减半显然关注度较高。5 V7 v7 ^9 u6 S2 ?$ N; }9 H
+ |8 b4 M) b, K, u8 Z
预计第四次减半将发生在2024年的4-5月份,届时创建一个区块的
% U+ z! @4 M5 t! m: [. p
0 P9 ^1 j. U+ o. o* G, s奖励减少到3.125个BTC。0 D Y' n* k5 Y, V/ Y5 z3 }/ V" M6 r
) [9 P' ?( |4 I( V: s. U |
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