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[lastpost] => 2798959 以太坊的关键指标转向“主导地位”——ETH 即将迎来一波上涨行情吗？（转） 1768951292 sunnyclare001
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
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0 U; t4 h! q$ D) L2 r+ l: o认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
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而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
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6 o5 g( m. N* x6 h( X" i: L3 m的千禧一代。
& e1 ^' H) ~( x# ?. P0 I# U从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
8 f4 B! R& g* q4 d$ b1 I( K/ [7 H7 e1 a7 O; z0 f
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“3 D4 l* ]2 B" V; i( c
8 H0 }. X2 ~3 t8 ^" q# Q, a 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
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密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据# ~% g, k2 @# U( W* `+ r5 I: \
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《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成' O$ E% A: K' [* u; c" ^* ]
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的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
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2 i6 m. K( Q9 Q e$ C- o报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
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10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为, D. h1 D" N# u. }5 i
! Z$ I9 |) r# a. D: g6 fETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。8 _& G) v" P* C/ H
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据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降9 B) v$ f1 B' D0 k3 ~3 n
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息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
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与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密& L, ^2 G/ _* q& z
9 H' n# W1 `* v% S$ X
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富1 S0 b& s; D8 ~# T* D* E
! m6 p" ^; l6 }: O. }& ?7 M传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
- K1 k- x6 `* f0 U }3 f8 t4 W. h! V" K, A$ g2 C q. q
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
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: g {; G8 O3 R X& c) z/ U代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
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本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
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系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货6 o! Q/ A- b% H) u* A6 y
4 \' m! J( s4 b2 B% |币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
; y" u; Z9 `' g' @! ?( _5 f7 a4 G$ y7 l1 G6 m) J; @# [+ W
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
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. O- i4 X& [" R z+ Q8 j8 R/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
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