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[lastpost] => 2770289 尽管 ETF 成功率达到 100%，Solana 仍有 2.98 亿美元被转移（转） 1759255894 小钱儿
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6 U! S( \3 L- [+ Y. X# h( K2 R加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
) G7 D" I. b7 pDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
" J. z4 k& [0 ]( j6 m衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。; n2 t8 }3 q& Z* @, g. i2 y. k
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
4 m' x" |- j$ H6 Z( B6 nBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。' Q" ~9 Y5 ?8 @6 F% v9 H$ t1 n
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：- P+ a; w* p, x
2024年4月第四次减半
5 \2 t6 F, B; D& J1 q% B机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF& D( T0 p7 k+ t& R B
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
4 b* l! q, d& _0 k) P) R针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
. e4 m" J1 i" Z* w8 h2 [3 p二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务2 H) ` s( i$ u; u
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
; ?5 T6 V! O3 i8 i8 J) YPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠8 Q2 Z3 c+ g- p
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。8 P: Z0 r$ v8 p; C
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁2 q3 T% g# a: d0 a7 W$ p, ^. J
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
+ K+ Z9 V! U# a4 {# N2 R, m金融(TradFi)产品。
) g" f5 e+ Z/ m) I0 Q. Q如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
; _4 B& ]/ ?, u6 i5 H$ ^' G3 s. T链桥」的项目。% q" q. @% m/ W0 V
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
/ w, O" ?% H8 W7 {/ |模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
- ~9 g% U( K! `: ]2 D- n等。
6 ~* ` G/ ]* v( L X- UPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
5 s5 p- y- V, ~ r. Y6 U. n# j/ a; r4 V在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
+ _2 a1 A1 o" o$ H. Q: i& c/ |( O五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
2 Q9 w) M) l0 s; ?Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位/ ~: N7 D0 r" \/ Z
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。9 O2 @& z4 B, V& @( @- q, V$ X
Pantera点名了几个项目：2 j& `" a% ]+ r5 J1 T
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图+ v% b1 w, K# c- C
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台; \7 ~' p, L( X( m- {, V R* I R
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品4 H8 z2 O% A7 e6 s' [$ T
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
1 \, R% a- Q) lRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游
2 x2 ?. G; k. l: T+ j4 t' `六、小型公链需专注特定应用! M }4 l9 Q4 }. ^! M
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
4 N& S" k) |5 ?2 Q! j1 ?. h/ U1 T5 I至能直接与L2竞争。5 O2 B8 D8 g1 @
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。- G" Y* r" k9 n, g! Q
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
V: x5 C+ B [6 Q7 @成为「应用链」。
) T& M" w3 M- m( }0 i. [" V事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
. T2 a5 G6 v& v" S) F; k# j+ N' z$ ~
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