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[lastpost] => 2798092 分析师重点推荐以下四种具有强劲上涨潜力的加密货币：ZKP、RNDR、AKT 和 FIL（转） 1769218076 rainwang
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6 k, b& Z, i8 z/ u( A6 t0 D
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
/ a% C w( T0 ?; \7 W2 G sDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，6 U6 _7 q& n1 c4 R; ]4 W2 X1 n
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。8 z& ]3 F- S$ z/ a0 a- d7 l5 S# y
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
; b' h6 \5 x2 _BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
8 q; i) O: P# R1 ~, g% m4 SPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：$ D% u7 L: J; F5 Y& j
2024年4月第四次减半" t2 S/ g: U' B, b9 W6 W
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
) C) i& F, M% m: C! ~可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
# _3 y8 j0 o) V针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
3 e5 ]; o4 B' T, M. i/ c9 T二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务* y+ D0 g% P" W8 h7 G+ ^# [1 p
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
: ^8 |; j+ g& S9 G8 m$ Z0 nPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
) f; x$ r' G. t- H4 r, V3 v+ b诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。7 r2 n- n. m% n
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
r3 }7 r" |' {( U5 ^除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统9 }! _2 r5 \( R0 C9 F! J
金融(TradFi)产品。
2 c( D% _7 u$ u( F0 `3 @, {8 {如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
5 _5 ?5 C4 ]& K' {8 E3 M链桥」的项目。
( e: g+ G9 ~$ t: Y四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
2 x7 ?: i ^) x1 b模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作( d$ A# ^ F* G
等。( M* p7 g0 u2 A' W4 C$ T6 k, ^! f, k
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
! ]/ d; T! V3 y7 w+ z; A9 K1 ~在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。+ w8 J1 P9 |# Y1 H# r' [0 G
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
- w5 M5 y1 [6 ~ j! APantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
' m- @" b* h" o. h1 _ g数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。# [5 L0 f, J& Y
Pantera点名了几个项目：% h/ L) \/ q6 W+ A- w$ Q8 e
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
1 u w E1 A R oBittensor：去中心化机器学习平台, F; g1 K9 u5 ^4 d& O. z, T, B1 i
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品! q* m' r0 n' F) W: G3 s
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划
* K$ @9 b+ e$ M' }, mRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游1 k" f# r" J& ^! v" p: g
六、小型公链需专注特定应用
" J6 Q5 T" z7 G& Z. ?* m2 J; PPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚+ X. m5 K# R/ O7 l
至能直接与L2竞争。
" E+ O7 W- G3 U4 |( ~ g6 x5 w也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
/ O5 ~; E' o; n) fPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
; Z0 C- ]/ J; m7 R成为「应用链」。
- Y4 W/ f3 n d1 L. p事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。 l9 u. a3 Y: l/ d- C
- g. O& K' {8 [! y; P6 J
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