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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
3 B4 a, n; s  M8 h' C     
4 {) o* f( b3 j# a; H3 s; k     平手中水,主队有利; ]  w' K2 {& z+ x9 [6 i' \6 S7 ~
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
; f$ ~& E+ m( Y/ U2 B. L! L' C* c" v) ~     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:% L! _( f: Z$ r! y7 u
     英超主队! o# z8 u1 n9 J- T2 K' l  @
     胜:13场 48%
# |9 T' a3 Z% V; Z     平:5场 17%
  _) j) |9 G  N6 j+ N     负:9场 35%3 y, t2 v: r( \9 G& {. `$ m
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
$ |: G, s( j- |& ]7 m     
3 c- p. t! Y% u( _% t     一、初盘阶段
2 _( x& n% S4 U0 [     具体到水位如下:
6 h  A2 ^/ X5 A1 A5 s/ S" `     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负) y3 p- C8 p. p  ^- I
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
0 f( _( x* R! C5 @1 q     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负& q) c# p4 w, ~/ H: [  y6 m
     
; ]8 O/ I4 ?5 d/ }* J     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
; c/ h1 Z0 C& u, _/ D' h# F0 p1 i     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
+ j" i) o4 {/ P     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。/ u/ j2 C% Q8 m/ o( R. H
     
4 j3 F9 f& r8 P- @/ U* L     二、临场阶段' r8 x* q7 P9 Q8 q  \( u# j( H& H* g
     9 V& j4 Z% ^* {$ w) r
     具体到变盘和水位如下:, X& K4 z: q1 e) x0 b: z5 U
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负. G) H( G% [. P1 W- I
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
2 ~* \* Z0 u- e/ ]* P" S4 d4 d7 l     
- ^" E3 Q  s1 l8 h     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
  Q: y0 l# n& V5 ]( r     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:0 Q' M; r" ], b9 z/ L
     
* V+ I" c$ O5 s( N" y6 _2 [     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
8 c- j4 w" H2 `  w  {8 N5 U! V* @+ H     初盘:0.82平手1.04
2 b$ U4 u( V& w% O7 j  M     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
+ E( e0 l+ r; {& @3 ?" }1 w" Z     
. ^6 B' X8 V; J0 Y. ?     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
! j* Q; b- Q: S1 D- K4 _     初盘:0.76平手1.10
/ i, ?! g: W8 i8 Q$ T     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91' l) N7 u$ T& {3 }( }, Z7 n1 M2 o
     2 F& A9 o& }, X: Y! ^- H- ]
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技$ y- w- [4 S' E8 L5 x* C1 W: x. T
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
9 D0 T- A% U0 n     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.983 Z0 ?9 D& Y# o) H& E% m
     
- R+ w/ J* c2 X9 b     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
+ V/ n5 h# ~; z- }     初盘:0.88平手0.98
% y5 s! {3 h/ a  {/ `7 f     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
3 ], T+ R" T% ?! E5 X9 a2 H     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。. b& U7 ^* i  k4 i- G
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
; |3 A% y" X% D' U( \$ Q0 T2 H     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。  V" e( x/ k4 t- E
     " R8 F) W0 H4 h
     三、球队表现: }( R% Q$ z3 z. d) ?+ e
     
  |5 n  c! R. i3 k! {& ~7 _4 H9 c     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。9 y9 g6 x0 x- U# f1 ^8 @+ N
     
, t( j$ C: N6 i3 p# T" b     四、投注要点
1 E0 i+ f# u, X     要点1:平手中水、主多不败' D' a4 S; x! [+ v
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
" E8 l/ O- t1 v0 w+ ~     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
% Y) @" K6 ~8 k     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
* c" s. s( |5 d& u     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
  w' B' J7 W2 M3 T9 F     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大& j4 E9 }" [% K
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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