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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
. R' Q Y& q$ J2 n/ l6 G5 P
% m0 h' [" v" q. `& w- z4 k 平手中水,主队有利" ~* h+ M3 P6 t u, r" W1 V; E7 d
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
2 y8 ?% w. e' P4 L4 T: t2 `! _ 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:) {, S1 K: O9 o1 Z8 ~
英超主队2 n' N8 o* V$ w0 S6 G
胜:13场 48%7 w) P$ ^3 P( P
平:5场 17%' J/ ]" t! r6 U
负:9场 35%
/ A8 a+ u3 e0 O" e8 s" z 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
- h9 }' F b* h% d# R
: X; ^" \" K+ B i9 D* c9 e 一、初盘阶段$ t! W; k) T( l6 f+ v( |' L7 Y" k
具体到水位如下:
- H7 \ `4 D) ~ 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负2 a' z0 v) ] d f
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
& E5 s" d% \2 w0 o9 ~9 h9 Q3 ^% a 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负0 [6 j$ [" B+ g. o% P: R7 W
, l0 @: y- v" I. N
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。% D: m/ J1 {) j" ^, l
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。! e ] L4 F! s& v! y
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。! I6 y9 B' b% V2 r9 S, b. p
. {( \* Y) }8 l( |" E7 M; \ 二、临场阶段 K1 t5 o# X G; G4 y0 j& c
) L6 V0 [1 I" b3 {
具体到变盘和水位如下:9 q) |' u' }% R# _
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
. r# p$ m6 D* n9 G, P2 t, Y& K& @ 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负1 b% [: \5 }* B- f! D0 @1 n
) [9 \2 X# q! L* _6 n' [2 n 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
+ t4 B7 |; V4 D- W 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
9 Q4 m. @+ g. [5 g) T9 y, B $ A0 i( i" p& u2 A; ]1 c9 y- u
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿" U7 q9 p. n/ v9 e8 B# U8 M
初盘:0.82平手1.04
6 H5 o6 d9 g3 g/ p, u, _4 c; O! P1 E+ _ 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
; j% z& ?2 \' q ' M& L f" p; J* ~% Y5 b* G
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆5 a4 q. T9 T( |; g/ ~
初盘:0.76平手1.10, m8 [: i7 }% A
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.912 T) z' ^0 S! l7 F. r: }. B' F
# Y' v1 g+ ~- H- y, M4 t" e$ E 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技+ q0 R/ P! `0 c1 o4 f. I
初盘:0.82平手1.04# p" W( @5 j8 P3 W
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
* |! P0 e4 z4 E4 E, Y5 g. o ' i# h4 [2 x, _) K' @2 A
伯恩利2-1西汉姆1 [- b! q; g& V1 \, e4 O0 @
初盘:0.88平手0.98
`, F% o0 d- @; u0 l" x8 p& Y 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
S5 d. F" P, a) C 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
- D% z* }. I- n- W+ C- ]$ Q/ [% _ 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。; o9 _6 M; b# _% U+ K" ^3 R
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
8 X' Y6 [9 A9 N0 N2 c
' i T7 q2 C" j- x: ? 三、球队表现
2 a+ M* y6 O& p
+ O# {/ J! D' M7 G' ~ 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
, c$ b: m3 R* p5 a! T1 i1 F
, y3 @6 T" N6 }) b( Q 四、投注要点
3 [3 U6 k4 G; K! Z' w: ^ 要点1:平手中水、主多不败
* a6 U, n. h$ _/ b4 S2 @ 要点2:平手降盘、走两头
7 b. @8 B. ^' ]' H' b 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
6 l2 q. C1 V3 f9 _ 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
% ^# T" n, t0 x( D 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
& R* h) E4 u3 E- z) ]9 l' l 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大+ A6 c% C3 f9 F/ @+ x) t
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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