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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
  ~$ E) A  M4 a9 G5 |& V( R* `     $ I3 L3 Y- n3 @1 T8 ?
     平手中水,主队有利& C6 E' F) i% [$ f" U# o
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。. L( d: I4 c2 e* D
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
/ \+ \  _4 v% V( ^5 x     英超主队3 j+ Z# T$ n5 f. v( v
     胜:13场 48%
: J2 y/ }: ^. S* {; Q8 C2 [( I) \     平:5场 17%
0 E; f% t: e2 x# e# U7 d     负:9场 35%
8 d7 X, x  X: H& c% T     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
  b4 Q& G0 f9 B3 K- s! w0 z     . h5 Y0 _+ ]3 y, h5 w6 V0 Z
     一、初盘阶段
6 I9 _0 ~6 C, E. U/ ]     具体到水位如下:* b/ n- |$ @  s8 }
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
1 }2 |  D8 n) e     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
4 ~7 V* @8 l) Y! O' F/ U     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
& _- R+ E: B# f1 k& |+ X1 O     
0 O6 j- r8 B' P5 n5 X- k     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。9 t! J* j4 {* C5 R8 M4 e
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
5 U) J* N$ y1 X- e; e" a2 u9 p     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
& W  l2 X- x) \7 j' W     3 G8 j" `( w8 F4 Z( {
     二、临场阶段" T2 L' x& d' F# Z7 W$ h
     
# I( _4 Z) L% q( k5 u9 V* f- ]     具体到变盘和水位如下:
1 x9 s9 C, O$ E9 `* v0 k7 M8 n- \  r     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负& d5 z6 b5 q) {- r
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负7 p5 _, x/ A( I- F% @: q% p
     
. U7 q4 e7 b& J/ v3 u" z3 j* ]% w: a     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
4 r& E+ H4 p: K2 X8 \1 I     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
, t4 r7 e) o- D/ m     ! W! t7 z2 N, u
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿$ p4 ?( a) q/ T4 \, O/ a! ]" x: r% j
     初盘:0.82平手1.04& D1 d" j! t1 ^: ?2 s8 T
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85/ y/ X  Y0 I2 X$ d: f4 u3 L
     
! z8 F3 w8 a2 }! _' ~3 E     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆) v; n6 ]. h# Q7 o  H$ n* }; o' j( e3 a
     初盘:0.76平手1.10
  y* m/ K+ B, p6 P  q  ^     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
* x8 C- {. J! ?. h     ! S; E( Q+ \- v( j5 U5 X
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技+ v$ [+ Q9 F8 N6 R
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
& `7 }( h' ]  L( U8 z     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.984 @! y* s, h  T" o$ C/ I- h  v
     5 @( z' F- t$ h
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆& X4 J" J# B2 W0 z
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
3 f7 q, i- h$ ?* m4 m0 I     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
$ ?& Z& c! h2 {( S. T     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
& Y, X6 y+ \, Q1 G     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
" y/ |$ D# @$ D) c     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
8 N# ]; @/ O2 s8 p7 V) J6 s, X' @     
' N1 r! a9 {" W! z- K- l0 \! c5 t( ]0 v     三、球队表现6 M5 M3 u0 C. \" E! k
     ' T3 c# `) T2 P$ P- W: N
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
8 S- k3 j: s4 \4 M# W) t     
* n' t0 I8 E/ R/ P     四、投注要点
, W$ E% `) b! l" ~; P8 l     要点1:平手中水、主多不败. v' L" E+ i# J5 z( b8 R
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头' C1 G8 j5 n9 D# c3 I
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败  c! w. f4 ^3 |" a: f
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
1 `4 @1 l1 n+ t5 w9 H& r' b6 r     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
5 C% [& w. [3 U$ b1 K7 U     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
8 {: C' u4 g( @& h, U     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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