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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
$ C0 n1 u. Z* U8 h     
# a+ s/ ^: k! L     平手中水,主队有利
5 E. `9 e0 ~! C* K     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
; q: g+ S. I( M* q     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:2 I" U3 U. J3 @' `* l
     英超主队8 _& r7 L( R( a* l  D! z* n) ~
     胜:13场 48%
$ F1 r0 D, a/ t, o$ a# B) J* ]/ R     平:5场 17%) c8 Q% e& T. X' X7 G4 f
     负:9场 35%. ~' {  X: t8 `/ T5 p
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。' v) p/ c, \8 I8 e) k$ ^
     8 W3 {5 U( c% A& _6 ], x2 ^
     一、初盘阶段/ C3 n* k: o* U' e1 E0 P  I+ ?
     具体到水位如下:1 b% l5 \5 C$ c8 }$ }/ y% L+ v- z
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
3 A% i9 R, X" v) n8 p     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
- V( u$ _' t( |/ ]     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负3 p  u' z7 B  X& q
     ) [% X+ z- b6 w  @% b% Q5 I* B; W
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。% Q$ m) u7 g/ y5 T4 o4 l; ^
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。; x8 @) F+ j% h/ J1 X# F
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。. {) C- k# i' _" a
     
8 [* C5 l, D8 g9 r     二、临场阶段& w2 r: E  q; C
     2 m/ T9 D) h% C4 y
     具体到变盘和水位如下:: ^, p3 ?4 F: T: m+ s& [5 S7 r
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
2 v+ S, D, g& u+ m     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
6 o0 A* v( ^# V, ^7 R     
/ {9 V# n% J1 V" I1 r- l     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。' n" [; w9 H4 p, K3 ]' l
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:: C; ?: O8 I( O$ k* l3 u' m- T: C
     
$ v% g, t6 g9 e2 Y- K     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿: k6 j2 C4 H& c$ t* |8 E
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
9 x) h& v# r8 B2 C& S- l# E* F5 h2 p     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85: p/ q. E' M( Y" C: x" E( d
     - c1 ~( q, p5 M2 U$ w# I  u# ]" k
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
" T1 K( i$ \9 m0 M$ I1 t  \     初盘:0.76平手1.108 b! ~* `$ f' f0 j" E' M9 h$ _* W  N
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
7 ]" r! g# P; v9 J5 g) N, K' d     6 m. Z" q( r$ y9 j( E5 q5 i, s
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
* D- z, W3 G) h% ~" t& ~     初盘:0.82平手1.040 g9 Z* d1 w6 ?. J8 U1 j
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98. k, o  b6 z4 W- r9 Z4 D. O4 u8 o( \
     
  Z6 `% j, `" d9 [7 X; X. `  O     伯恩利2-1西汉姆; t+ k3 n6 ]& c0 x) E7 |7 N
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
# `5 F. {$ M" ^2 ?8 p* I' I     终盘:1.12平/半0.74! Z3 p) _- }$ w7 M% g4 _: V
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
$ T7 I/ L9 B# f. X     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。. b/ K+ ^5 n6 d$ i( f) i' A1 i3 L3 H
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。5 z5 I7 F3 p& v* s
     , [' C. V* P# o' q* P* S% u- g1 b6 L
     三、球队表现
' a" F- Y" P# l2 {5 N+ \& U9 n% \     + X4 N' W% a* [$ V, }6 i
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
. N( v& d  ^+ \" F     
" \3 B9 ^0 a$ e0 N     四、投注要点
  H' u4 S( \. r5 e     要点1:平手中水、主多不败: h3 K: w3 B+ M. ?* I7 S0 v8 \3 |
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头6 l! [: B: S: K4 }! A
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败3 S; q, Y/ V3 m: M
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
( q. `# U, T) T6 p4 ^     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任% r! E! S7 f3 z& _1 S
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
+ e' o- ]0 O8 |/ _8 s' W# q     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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