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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘) `: |1 ~+ o7 {" z! B6 E# E2 J
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初盘高水,豪门要防冷
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2 K0 ]# v4 [& [0 ^/ s5 t$ f 09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
3 G$ r+ u9 c1 v( |0 Y 英超主队
+ D- K7 J& q# i6 p+ s- ` 胜:11场 79%
6 K/ a# |& z* a z* d' h. v 平:2场 14%
, K4 z% f* N1 {# Z! D& ] 负:1场 7%
- {7 x K& m& Z9 _" @7 U
( w; a% C9 D! l8 U 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。" t/ P- K1 u) }7 t$ E
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一、初盘阶段
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具体到水位如下:4 Y0 u/ B, _: i3 T2 Q
初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
`+ m' @0 t) C" v 初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平
+ b- V* u! k* N+ { 初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平& w' A; M) G1 \& Q P6 _
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分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:5 b% q# ]" q3 Y! J7 a5 U7 u4 J1 V
3 L7 l7 m3 J8 D" B3 K; p- J8 d8 x& z 维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00
q9 R [- ]1 q$ B& Z F$ i2 G 热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02& |8 _) ?8 @ Q1 ~/ z" @, `9 D& K
热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
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初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。3 A" ?6 W$ h- p
初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。
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二、临场阶段( s8 z$ H' I! ]% T0 a- H I
$ S9 X, h* W3 a8 l4 I0 p 具体到盘口如下:
, b& Y. Z' M- G7 M `& ~* Z$ h 临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜) H q- P4 W7 g3 R3 |
临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平
# c/ r3 y6 s: m: G% k6 y 分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:/ C/ |7 Q' ]* J$ d4 I6 Q
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热刺VS伯恩利
& j2 g2 V( N" S5 W 初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00
- `/ b& ~1 X# o7 H1 T0 C 终盘:0.77球半1.09) B9 r; w$ K; A/ U
$ d5 i7 c2 t7 O& u0 X' L 临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。
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) u. D* y. ?6 X* Q 三、球队表现
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8 _6 A; n+ t% m ^& h' }" R1 u8 Z 在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。
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四、投注要点
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要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证* {; v$ b9 I- w" a, S; Y1 V6 D
要点2:初盘中水,重点防平 T' q9 T( g4 {% b" e% H
要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能' }7 _& s/ K8 B
要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
* V$ j r# W3 S2 S; k Z: i 要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
" f, [+ C& @) [) e6 Q! K 要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任
+ a3 B* ]1 o) K6 T5 X1 Q/ p8 [1 B8 ` 要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视' m U( x1 v8 M: ]1 v# @- |/ S/ d2 I
$ ?7 U5 Y6 g% @/ B8 G 对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法* ^1 o5 I1 W9 a8 W! ?
对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方
. y3 k: g5 n& w! S! v2 Z- M% m 面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。$ x* {/ `/ I, I. s
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