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[lastpost] => 2764896 加密货币交易所GeminiIPO散户配额高达30%,上市前夕豪赌散户热情(转) 1757632760 九嶷风
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势4 V% b1 i' x" U0 k
% Q! Z9 ]- o0 ^5 p! Y) @% U过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。" E: r+ L- u5 b- `
; S" t* ], L8 U- h/ ^" cPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。: c; l. k& a2 I$ Z
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。1 V* S1 [- W/ d5 I. P
/ E+ t7 j) _; {8 w+ J2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
5 Y/ i3 J% w* l+ U; C. }+ [
; W9 c) M% Q/ E- h3 C当前持仓成本:9 G: Q! g5 c( D4 J- ~" a
/ A1 q9 t/ |0 M) J
机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
9 T; `. S2 ~! q* ^7 M7 o0 c& m- O- A1 f2 R4 C
微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;5 Y6 n" n5 l; a/ W$ L5 c1 J5 b' v4 G* n
1 }1 P3 i! l( V( ~ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。7 D! z+ T( r H* _8 g
6 C3 _4 H$ |8 P比特币价值回归:$ n/ ~7 [% F+ ^: O% z, {
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。. V* b* m1 V0 }) G) r
/ F, A# V8 N" z; @随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
/ Q" B, h( p, {* p" k1 x8 s5 f. E0 W' R# T- P" `
加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。1 ~7 t: o1 Z2 B" w. T( w5 v* d/ s
" [* f& u$ G0 s. T$ m5 M3. 市场热点与反弹情况6 L8 Y; x5 w5 C; V4 V: ]) L
! A! j8 e+ h7 y# XETH:) v' p) z) x3 i/ \" [
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
; H7 z! _1 i: T
8 ?" `3 @) U$ C5 |, D) p3 N7 C- }机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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BTC:8 d7 \; J+ d, n& R5 O9 X* [
% H {/ ]0 A) T4 y( j5 k尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。: r4 w; k* u5 p
0 x- U: b0 u) m8 }' ?如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。& x6 i. Y n& [
3 C+ X$ ^# [- Q$ mSOL与XRP:
9 ^6 y) Q% H' _. ~; h" k7 j8 r# T
+ X0 }) D0 E% L h* pSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
% y* C' u* S& @5 p5 H, [
; E J2 t5 ^4 F: j7 X0 {XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。6 r) E; N; [# [. m' [
$ s* A" n% K0 s$ t, ^其他热点项目:' t* @5 z% q$ E I
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。# H, U1 `% \/ D' d& J+ Z; r0 b
5 j# ?5 w3 M8 V( p( u6 n( P山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。! X7 X% f/ o: i7 b0 C7 T
6 Z& a3 A/ q, ?( v' i0 ^
4. AI赛道与新兴项目
7 A$ x9 x/ S/ q) a
2 q5 H2 B9 a: m9 bAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。5 M. B" I0 X( O
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市场展望
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。4 b8 G0 r- J: E0 q. R/ o
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