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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。9 `* _. [/ V& V" k7 o9 U
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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( l# W! D8 [: ^( | 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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! I8 `8 s$ j8 t( |3 T Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。: X4 I7 W- n/ o0 ~
( ]% d( D& \2 Q# P. x0 k 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。/ A. ^# R% o& x! T+ Q
1 b/ _0 \. l: u# f# D 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。1 p( Z( ~& f# k- |" S. l$ b
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。
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' f7 b4 p# S5 l) w" b& I I 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，6 {6 ^% C, p' i: O( q
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。% V& M& X) ?4 X/ b! I/ e
5 M/ w% E/ _( P' X “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间/ L6 b; B4 o0 C% L- P ]! r
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”+ s- ~! @0 I) s5 E) @
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( i& N& X2 U; b 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。$ H" s2 c8 x1 `( A& F
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在$ M3 s0 Z. _+ q: l5 A" q
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”' V# ?3 w+ o7 Y9 @/ B& j
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。' m' h& ~* l' B5 i9 |
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。1 T( D# Z0 T9 b
% Q& Q! l; R3 C( u6 m 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势
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& H1 y4 h+ C, l- _ Q 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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* n& p6 x. Y2 m& i; x 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。- H( A7 J4 V9 m
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- z! q' y$ r# y8 O6 v& a 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，) o! Z: N- T( F3 Q1 P
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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