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[lastpost] => 2814890 Aave正就“将年回购预算从5000万美元下调至3000万美元”进行投票（转） 1773538301 龙飞凤舞789
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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+ X O( W5 I% ? Z s3 _+ D) }衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”, w3 C4 \+ p1 q
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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& X* V: K# Z' f& U* R, S. f融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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* J @- z6 P2 O3 O; Y! q过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益! j: H7 a7 c" @5 N6 I3 j
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。; `- {1 A+ J6 {2 T. z) ^! l
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国& B R6 J! {% [+ h
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币: I& H3 H4 N# N8 n! Q
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史' G" l% R6 K6 `. U3 y0 E, C
9 K8 V: |) Y' S) y% `标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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$ N' U% F' Z4 G9 r4 U f周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。% }. k4 F. v2 X* u1 F9 |- q5 A9 G
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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收益率冲高回落。3 e! Y2 z, g% Z& I$ ~
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。. J8 a" e3 A! V
8 d8 D- \4 g; G U( w B( ]4 Y4 ?( e U周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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4 q/ ~- D7 O- \( N7 u5 E- xLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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) L k2 o* X5 }* B3 l是的，这正是我们所看到的。"0 o1 ?' y; w/ }' N
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去/ J- e! ^% \- a7 p' m; m
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。: [1 I1 e' k: n1 x7 e0 D
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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