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BCA Research表示，投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑，而这可能对比特币构成利好。
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' N- Y8 G/ ^4 L) W0 d, Y! D0 T5 [ 该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出，目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产，并在股票投资中降低对美国
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% C; b8 |2 p4 b+ W; e- x' X市场的权重。原因在于，海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产，担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。, V, P/ p# U1 [* _5 [
* M- S8 P- X# `/ {2 S7 M" M 与此同时，BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围，并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月，BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而
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“短期看空”比特币。3 P% T( H! s$ C6 P: a9 a; w
+ H& S6 @. ?' j! x* \. F! o q3 n8 w* j “在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下，比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道，“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来，活跃交易的比特币在整体已9 N" C& Y( v' p$ u
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实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”
5 J' h0 V' ^1 a# F i7 Y! `
6 G4 O7 r. R& \3 z2 f5 ?* D6 ]" U 报告还指出，比特币作为“数字黄金”，正越来越像实物黄金那样表现，在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。0 A0 h5 g# J3 Y+ Z5 W, A+ U1 g: r
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" ^* d- i' I* L 根据Coin Metrics的数据，自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期，现货黄金上涨了8%，
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而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。
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BCA在报告中进一步指出：“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺，但关税政策的模糊性，已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外，“激烈的1 F# T- |3 d8 D9 X5 n$ ?
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利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”2 w9 u& o& E3 Z
6 M( n2 @# y/ ?" [" r “尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛，但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号，才能恢复投资。”报告写道，“若无法及时提供清晰政策，
+ B' C6 P) e% {! t; z6 R0 r/ p3 Z4 U: V3 q* k1 R
将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”
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