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[lastpost] => 2798092 分析师重点推荐以下四种具有强劲上涨潜力的加密货币：ZKP、RNDR、AKT 和 FIL（转） 1769218076 rainwang
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中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，+ ~1 \3 @$ ?' H) @$ n, C
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形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于
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) i; X5 z" K4 ?" W! V: |逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政% [ ]' G+ M) u& a
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策的确定性。
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$ n% }, x) ^( g4 E 中信证券主要观点如下：1 @, t* x1 O# F& c, E
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加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。
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自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。/ ]7 k9 z5 K2 v& z2 r4 `5 ^
0 i. r% x* m4 {7 @( Z' s 近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。
/ n4 |5 I) Y* K# a/ z( U+ x% s$ S" j- B+ o ^2 O, ~
2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现" J1 Y. Y: {) g# i) c
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不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。
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. d2 G0 w! S1 U4 D5 x: G- ` 加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。. p. _. J! a( o8 X) }8 i
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从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。, g9 Z$ n8 _/ a8 e' W+ \, ^) [- f
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加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。
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/ K; r# ^( d0 q' X2 \) e/ O 由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫
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% S$ }1 t4 p& O, N+ C, G破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。0 y4 k9 M8 v3 i+ S; U# G" P
3 ]; N1 l: a& n& h/ Y& j 短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。% w9 f4 X, [% [; _/ k+ d7 }, ~
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我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性2 t6 y! k/ z% V" p, z: A9 B
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共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。; t) u% _% A3 @* b3 e6 `
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长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。
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2 T2 e ~, g& E3 y" ^ 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣 q$ {4 v* l* `! c! e# q0 K
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势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。
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8 g1 \# l H5 N7 R5 K( `* F. I 展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。7 g1 Z" b% W* t l
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本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。
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/ C& N! n; I7 g2 {- n8 }7 r& P 风险因素：: o/ y# o( `2 U
# Q8 v( y/ {; H) K 特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。
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