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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？1 w2 i9 _& s) H0 ?, }6 \
3 ?/ S4 m! T5 b2 k4 J1 g+ l! x L/ ^开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
9 }4 w4 {# q0 d0 M: `6 i2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。1 r) W" Y8 {. D `% U2 E
% T% R8 r8 H( v% H- Q7 N% c来源：Alphractal
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* M6 e" s$ ^, L, ]5 b2 A15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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/ Z+ F/ f r& r" f7 Q; K. }尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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7 q2 M% G& `: [& K' ^( P事情变得有趣了
8 J& N( G/ `' O% Q; A1 N. A7 H; UBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。4 y8 L- ^& k' Z. S
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来源：X
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* F+ b! E% |: b0 s# ?根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。: }. V2 A U l' \$ Z J
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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# c! D. V' s, w1 k# R8 O4 H' N正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。6 Y) a- T/ W% o6 K" Y
; S6 q$ e" D R L6 g随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。, x" u+ a& n8 Z; F9 ~1 w4 q
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力( v9 ]9 X+ |+ S
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。: r: a Z G$ U
2 l* K& B+ Z! E来源：TradingView
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( }1 _, I* U U. \/ r4 g# i& p9 o日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。/ ]' t, k( v! Z9 j) C9 s
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