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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。, i+ n8 J5 {4 d: {2 ^
$ G9 e4 J5 x9 S* d( P但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？1 }# z+ d$ Q x1 C$ u" }2 v4 E
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市5 u( @& o" w h( U5 {
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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来源：Alphractal
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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事情变得有趣了
7 W( j8 ?; ]2 X& ?3 x) t5 o4 m* E0 ~BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。* m6 g+ K) c) e3 a) P/ y) |0 b4 J; d6 e
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来源：X* ?) s2 M1 x( m* ?
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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5 }2 s# W& }+ z" R9 e! D' Y3 \3 fBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。" d! w1 n% L; E
2 R5 B) w( i4 v/ B8 k+ V正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。- @% H' _# g: H! G. `8 s2 g [
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。3 n: w# r: C! l( T
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力3 X' r/ t0 A' }# [( B t; X5 h" h
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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+ l4 k& t4 T- X来源：TradingView
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。* x* a( N; G' h& t4 w0 d& N( e( U
" d2 r3 U& e9 P" k$ V) Z然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。% D `7 F) {. W3 W& p+ X! _
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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