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[虚拟币交流]
比特币反弹逼近 92,000 美元——市场反应的原因如下（转）
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比特币价格再次攀升，而这波市场上涨与美国货币政策预期的转变不谋而合。, b6 k* ]. A" F7 b0 w
% W p, C. S! }8 q; T' u# A) w
要点总结：+ {4 s% g8 c3 Q3 g# H a4 P) g
由于交易员预期在凯文·哈塞特可能出任美联储主席的情况下，美联储的立场会更加鸽派，比特币价格反弹至 91,000 美元以上。( ]0 j3 g* S8 R% G9 q5 l, v
链上
. D c0 ?' F' `, S4 E4 q& o: `8 t在区块链上记录和验证的交易。
8 w' f+ x& D$ d7 R* G4 n8 T; G
$ N/ {! d' y' P链上信号有所改善，Puell 倍数从深度累积水平上升。; Y3 ^& K% c. _7 m( ^. ^
技术指标偏向看涨，但 93000 美元和 96500 美元仍然是下一个关键阻力位。* Z2 L) D! z. G: A8 R
本周早些时候发生滑倒后，比特币 受交易量上升以及衍生品和链上分析市场情绪改善的支撑，该股在过去 24 小时内反弹至 91,000 美元区域，涨幅达 4%。5 p+ {+ Y: z; B
; O0 h3 v" g9 b [美联储主席预期转变——比特币做出反应; y3 a6 \# b/ D1 ~
推动今天这一举动的关键因素似乎是人们越来越相信凯文·哈塞特现在是……领先候选人在唐纳德·特朗普总统的领导下，哈塞特有望成为下一任美联储主席。预测市场显示，哈塞特遥遥领先于其他竞争者，而且他的政策立场被认为明显更为鸽派——倾向于更大幅度的降息，并可能推出新的量化宽松政策（QE）。6 V) x) S8 b( B
1 ^4 B: Z+ ]$ g& j4 Q9 e- _当市场对未来的货币政策走向有了更清晰的预期时，风险资产往往会提前反映出这种转变。比特币交易员押注哈塞特领导下的美联储将倾向于宽松的金融环境，而历史上这种环境对加密货币通常是有利的。. V" N8 J* s- @ E8 ^2 u/ @* _5 K
( I" B$ v8 P! D4 I- L链上指标变得具有建设性
$ R" K- y: T$ \. v( \4 G Z普埃尔倍数（Puell Multiple）是一个备受关注的模型，历史上它通常预示着比特币周期触底，当该指标跌破 0.50 时，比特币价格就会触底反弹。目前，该指标已升至 0.67。虽然这一数值仍处于下行积累区间，但分析师指出，当该指标从低位回升时，比特币通常会开始恢复上涨动能。
a' O. f6 w& C: m8 ]4 C$ `7 l. q. m% W' A% A4 l) N7 W2 ^; a* ^- W" a/ q
普埃尔倍数已对比特币进行了标记$BTC自 2015 年以来，当价格跌破 0.50 时，周期便触底。1 r% ^" @8 [+ N0 k( `
1 D+ P b/ d% y现在是0.67。pic.twitter.com/6Z0ednSaRf1 p$ m- j/ Y X ^# s* d0 ?
- W1 o1 @- n; I3 q6 K— Ali (@ali_charts)2025年11月26日7 P# z3 h" x6 Z
1 e) \, e9 Z" G! M* ^: x: h G市场观察人士强调，以往的周期中，当矿业公司收入趋于稳定且普埃尔倍数脱离极低水平时，都会出现大幅上涨——这种模式现在开始重演。$ p$ W% Z O- o. c
0 m. q, C9 i: R2 Q1 ?% i
衍生品在最近的价格波动中发挥了作用。过去一天，价值超过 1.32 亿美元的比特币头寸……清算其中空头占了绝大部分（约1.14亿美元）。资金重置和强制清算进一步推动了比特币在上周大幅抛售后的反弹。& h7 i$ p/ q6 q
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技术图表显示动能正在增强。
. E S* P+ h: ?' n2 H, R6 s* c" o比特币4小时图显示结构正在走强，RSI) Z1 M/ J& u" f; i7 x( |, G/ f6 U" h# W
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相对强弱指数
" ^! N1 d5 y2 r( l8 k# U+ ~ i, H$ k. g7 X
和 RSI正在恢复到65-70分的水平MACD
2 ^3 `' X. e* i* H! f2 ^/ N/ T) d8 e移动平均收敛/发散9 r1 d% ~8 _' S7 D
- o" l) I. T d9 l% Q D“>MACD向上突破零轴，表明动能正在增强。
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