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[lastpost] => 2782179 Tom Lee称以太坊正进入比特币式的超级周期趋势（转） 1763386813 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币反弹逼近 92,000 美元——市场反应的原因如下（转）
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比特币价格再次攀升，而这波市场上涨与美国货币政策预期的转变不谋而合。2 F$ A- q6 |# N/ K$ ^/ g
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要点总结：' _5 L j! o. M+ B8 V
由于交易员预期在凯文·哈塞特可能出任美联储主席的情况下，美联储的立场会更加鸽派，比特币价格反弹至 91,000 美元以上。
' K& k; z0 l/ ? l; ?; J链上9 b3 ^: d" Y3 {; e0 h9 z+ k
在区块链上记录和验证的交易。+ |$ y) N" V. p9 A; ?1 a# S
: ~2 X4 Q3 ^3 z9 w, Q( d7 h+ m [链上信号有所改善，Puell 倍数从深度累积水平上升。
( ^4 ^$ n) Z6 q2 E( _* i技术指标偏向看涨，但 93000 美元和 96500 美元仍然是下一个关键阻力位。
+ g5 h& R" {1 J# s+ q4 h本周早些时候发生滑倒后，比特币 受交易量上升以及衍生品和链上分析市场情绪改善的支撑，该股在过去 24 小时内反弹至 91,000 美元区域，涨幅达 4%。
( W) P7 l+ [; o: W$ c& X( c' D$ q% v) f" a; y" @0 ]
美联储主席预期转变——比特币做出反应
. a* a( I8 a( D, @3 F推动今天这一举动的关键因素似乎是人们越来越相信凯文·哈塞特现在是……领先候选人在唐纳德·特朗普总统的领导下，哈塞特有望成为下一任美联储主席。预测市场显示，哈塞特遥遥领先于其他竞争者，而且他的政策立场被认为明显更为鸽派——倾向于更大幅度的降息，并可能推出新的量化宽松政策（QE）。( x& v# S6 ~# d1 W: B' h
8 o* b/ _ x; V# n' i
当市场对未来的货币政策走向有了更清晰的预期时，风险资产往往会提前反映出这种转变。比特币交易员押注哈塞特领导下的美联储将倾向于宽松的金融环境，而历史上这种环境对加密货币通常是有利的。& ^ ~! o* m( V9 z9 x/ s
' i0 J& P J; ]& T# F链上指标变得具有建设性7 s2 c( h: M- I m
普埃尔倍数（Puell Multiple）是一个备受关注的模型，历史上它通常预示着比特币周期触底，当该指标跌破 0.50 时，比特币价格就会触底反弹。目前，该指标已升至 0.67。虽然这一数值仍处于下行积累区间，但分析师指出，当该指标从低位回升时，比特币通常会开始恢复上涨动能。
, v5 A. \! u% ?' L) Z3 X
8 a& z4 b% s; a9 X2 m/ i普埃尔倍数已对比特币进行了标记$BTC自 2015 年以来，当价格跌破 0.50 时，周期便触底。
' h3 c9 ^9 `( s* J0 Y1 [& b
* E4 ?% V( z, w7 v8 [) Y9 h j现在是0.67。pic.twitter.com/6Z0ednSaRf
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— Ali (@ali_charts)2025年11月26日* @7 J# r F4 [& G2 c. z
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市场观察人士强调，以往的周期中，当矿业公司收入趋于稳定且普埃尔倍数脱离极低水平时，都会出现大幅上涨——这种模式现在开始重演。! D& V5 u, A" ^; m0 }9 u
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衍生品在最近的价格波动中发挥了作用。过去一天，价值超过 1.32 亿美元的比特币头寸……清算其中空头占了绝大部分（约1.14亿美元）。资金重置和强制清算进一步推动了比特币在上周大幅抛售后的反弹。: H) r! o* B9 o! H. N) I- P
. f' D3 ]* Z, e- ^: z技术图表显示动能正在增强。
. a/ Z( P1 M1 ?- E1 _+ x4 r; i% a比特币4小时图显示结构正在走强，RSI( A6 }6 a! S$ ~1 e8 {* i
, c- l# P$ O D( {
相对强弱指数
' I7 S3 d& d7 ^2 z0 p C& L- Q0 z3 @
和 RSI正在恢复到65-70分的水平MACD
" G4 r3 ^# q( l1 V9 f移动平均收敛/发散9 W! M& t& E3 _& y% W
0 Z1 }/ M) O" P' u; F% `
“>MACD向上突破零轴，表明动能正在增强。$ U. b8 h% x3 `6 `
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