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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。: L/ Y4 V+ U' S: n8 b8 X

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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率" Z1 Z& M; K' p; @/ g3 n

; q+ G0 Q- f+ \1 Y以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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: Z$ U9 t. Q" q+ j8 J  @皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 2 p# M# Z$ i6 V! z

5 ~( n7 `6 S8 s1 u' ?4 m很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?- i3 i1 u4 w$ N( }5 x+ v
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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9 j# U7 A$ G% w以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?0 C- g- [' y  b1 D7 t7 T8 Q
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盈利可能性; B( {2 @, Q2 }5 w' @
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。" W" q  ?8 {. }" [( y" ^& y

3 B" x3 {2 j: V% ]7 }5 U增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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9 Y6 w# x3 _; Y# x- T4 W4 s1 W你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?) m. H' e& g- r: [

+ X+ s0 K6 W$ j) o2 i3 f0 t9 Va) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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+ ^* D% a" I2 a正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么; a9 {8 }, ~3 I7 a
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润6 `) u$ \7 Q# _+ z" v2 i
60%的机会你会一无所有
: I, @/ l% r% L9 M预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
+ T+ u8 k6 Z, b$ a4 G4 v, a+ a* U由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。9 `% @* @% k4 [' y; }, A/ [

+ p, C4 d/ c6 k/ R增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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6 ?  G* j0 u7 R+ p+ m8 S凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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, H( s4 i+ N5 B/ }. @, `* O' {A=博彩资金
- U! ]) g7 {: @' l0 A% D! YP=获胜机会
; R! @8 C* o! a" O- `' `O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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. |: v/ g2 }! s- F首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。. x! A: @4 A; o* o. w; h

& B+ o5 J8 h3 }$ G* N2 X+ y好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。1 |3 Z' Q( x0 e: v9 Q2 ]: R5 z
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)& Z. H6 S* C  Z: N
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A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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1 R4 K/ E  i7 W4 V* j$ g2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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$ I0 G2 R4 M! R9 L, r' p" EA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)8 U. H: r  T. h

5 _: ~, h/ J; }1 FA=0.1) D  [6 g, T1 e

) Q2 w! Q) K! q: C: X  J; K结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)5 P: D* t7 B+ d) Q/ z

: I: u* z3 S- x4 I) S" ~/ ?A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1), w+ }8 m* B$ {. `8 Z( i. G* _4 |
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A= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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& n1 l: v* g0 @# c( [& W第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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