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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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1 H: F0 [$ d( r8 a西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
( H# b$ m* p+ [  U( k( i" ^
' ~8 y5 x( h1 Q( B以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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. l5 H/ G% ^& y5 \3 P皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?" y  ~7 K$ A% d8 E9 |$ R

. E7 ^3 m$ @8 f$ C答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)9 Y" [/ o4 c# r9 F& H9 }" N
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8 v$ ~( `) L0 [1 B- Z以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性
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5 F/ ^8 H9 @! n对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。$ r; D9 \1 _3 |! d- r* D1 E5 F! e' q
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增值, t4 g) X; F$ D$ a5 A
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。5 z5 u+ Q6 V6 ~) z" w5 k. K7 V9 o! ?' x
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?$ o4 d4 Q; x0 t2 v: \& a

6 j+ z3 s1 g9 J- S  x. O3 Ba) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 , ^1 M9 {% Y4 t6 f# F# {

6 }$ L$ Q, u* i5 q# f- w正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润, R+ e+ _8 o  E
60%的机会你会一无所有
  k( J% ~' k8 t预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
- \$ f- U5 S- Y7 O5 p1 Z由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。& |8 i  r* L3 k7 E  F

" {2 f. h. q4 [& Z7 ]( W增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。8 ~( Y/ q5 o0 m" H( J

" G. r% c$ W, m+ w8 W, z- u基于增值的投注7 x8 t2 o8 ^" t

' O; Z) |# F- E5 d! Y. R# `+ S" k凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。( w/ |$ M* F2 z% t! Z( S

% m! v9 C+ K3 A, i$ w9 O- w公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)3 k  e) D. S9 M$ \& k

) ~6 ]* z( B0 S9 q2 ]A=博彩资金
) v* e0 h8 @: h* C1 B) qP=获胜机会. i, u. _4 f& J+ X' ^9 a2 ^- }0 t
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)& e; `' ?+ f& M/ w

! P% W  O4 V: r+ ]  b首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。' A  k' ~. d; l/ L& m/ s2 \( {/ d
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)# o  P: w" h, G  K4 a' ^
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0' I+ m& ~7 j8 L0 {( ^5 ~: R) h- k
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢/ ~6 }9 t- i1 U  d( h: V

* z1 L# ^- e' M& [: h2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)! N+ A5 f. E' N2 n5 F& E

( ^! N8 p! A- Z, o$ c( J5 nA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)0 k( A7 k6 z1 t9 ~6 `9 Z% U6 r

: ]; p. l' W6 }& U" P  qA=0.1
5 K8 i! D. N+ k) G& x/ v# f" [% a% E5 `9 o, w" F1 ?- U0 `  s  O
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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$ q/ c: M# B# }3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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1 T6 n: y3 J( K- ~  i7 F) oA= -0.2 : X( y8 b5 ], k/ H2 j! D- F
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好' ~; w/ N: Z4 l9 u. H

4 k; J2 s: c' k: S& U. ^第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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