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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。+ ^8 ~% r" t; M( F8 _) t, M
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4 J1 P$ }/ t5 F( L8 j西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率% s+ x% A4 n8 E$ k; i" u( ~
5 U! ^3 ]6 N+ c
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
# N2 _5 e& s. y5 c5 P! O8 N9 d0 I) t% X& x s8 ~- Z& z0 q
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
* `7 V# }3 a+ j% N& X, R/ K- ~% ?6 f$ L* o) R3 C, L
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?6 M- i6 m" s& z9 A! o/ t0 h) t
9 g" ?# a$ t8 k8 P
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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1 D& }# X0 P8 U/ j6 N& d# p& Y
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
$ z3 I5 \' B8 T2 R: E5 t- I' W2 v8 A; j' \4 J
) w! h7 N9 `- }) [# S! @7 ?7 s盈利可能性) H5 E7 A; f/ A! Z& h# o
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。# l) E" B. x+ z4 K0 t
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增值
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+ x, q4 I% ^7 e+ S许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?6 }- ~4 S3 G2 J* }
4 h- e5 J( I& k# l0 u( Da) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
7 M; P0 a- l4 T8 P0 b" [8 `7 U" `0 o6 a, x& y O- n
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么+ [" Q- b3 {4 g5 f. b7 r+ d1 }- s! ^
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润( S/ B' Q3 m. Y
60%的机会你会一无所有
& b0 {6 [& `% s0 t预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 7 R9 s. Z. h, u7 U
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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( f0 D7 c" r+ p5 q4 K公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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' D. f: g/ I" U& x( ^' t, R: O$ dA=博彩资金
k. O( g- x' ^+ E* @) L) aP=获胜机会) c( m3 h: c& r$ @9 B( O q
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
. e: ^8 d& V; ?7 g4 [
' ]$ {" q' @4 u' K好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。% O* @2 E% P# o2 o6 m/ U7 }% m
1 D, {1 p! Y. Q3 [3 f: b1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
9 K( f7 c. X7 {2 w4 v3 G. L' P- z: K8 s; a; X$ v1 W" y* ?; ~
A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)" e' v0 M. G' o" H
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A=0
3 i* ]. u% H) c: ?+ W: [2 q3 X) j7 _) s. q& y, x. A
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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]0 T; i! `9 Z5 E3 u7 R2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
+ u5 Q+ q- H$ x* k: [
! T" c: G' i- _5 D; Q- U$ ?' w/ eA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2) u, b5 `* f* A) I+ @- k
/ L, A+ v: k* ]" m8 XA=0.1
7 k+ f3 t' V1 q0 I4 Q5 W
6 H# c8 |, g2 I结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去3 |4 f) F# E# V' Y `" ^
0 l% ~( D6 \' }3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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4 U4 D! u: z4 L& Y, VA= -0.2 . l, \0 _3 J( {, ?
' q9 ~6 Y9 t, s" w结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好8 K* c/ { T3 |, t& D+ A
+ u7 o0 ~8 Q3 @* W, M& l第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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