Array
(
[fid] => 6728
[description] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!
[password] =>
[icon] => 7c/common_6728_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[digest] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 0
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 1
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 3
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 加精华
[action] => digest
[fids] => 6966,6903,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] =>
[rules] => 1)发布主题帖+1经验+1活跃币,回贴+10华小分
2)Lv.1及其以上级别会员可以发布主题帖,Lv.1及其以上会员可以回帖
4)转帖请在主题上标明
5)禁止发布与本版块无关的主题(违反,帖子转移到相关版块,并扣50经验)
6)禁止回复与主题无关的帖子(违反,帖子删除,并扣10经验)
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[137] => 体育菠菜玩法规则
[138] => 体育菠菜心得方法
[139] => 体育菠菜问题咨询
)
[icons] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 81 83 84 87 89 90 91 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8 92
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] => 足球,篮球,体育,规则,打法
[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[sort] => 0
[orderby] => 2
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 5
[imagewidth] => 200
[imageheight] => 150
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 900
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6831
[type] => forum
[name] => 体育知识讲座
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 5
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 2735
[posts] => 23142
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 0
[rank] => 113
[oldrank] => 113
[lastpost] => 54769 关于凯莉指数 1770736245 强龙出海
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 1
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 0
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 0
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 1656 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
此帖转贴,作者wloo (凉咖啡)
% l( f% d$ Y" a4 wDubo不是好东西,盲目的赌真的会让你倾家荡产。但是如果你真能掌握其中某些实
( e* J* Q. S# F$ j质,结果也许真的会大不一样。) B9 G' K$ O' V k2 H% k/ z; z
一个玩21点的,在掌握了提高3%的赢牌机率技术后,他一个晚上就能赢走90万多. Y$ A* `- ^ q# l1 q
美元; F0 W p2 ^' x: R
他凭自己的技术,要养家糊口是不成问题的。要说华尔街那些人能在某种程度上掌
* _4 X- ^& _& f$ N, R$ O控国家经济,也是事实。他们所做的某些工作跟赌有紧密联系的。所以说,小赌可; ?& c6 Y' l& Q; a& ^$ B
以养家糊口,大赌可以救国救民,也不能算是痴人梦话。+ M2 L+ B% Q; z0 r% E) f" `4 M8 h
Dubo有多种,这里只说赌彩,就是玩彩票。 有人说,彩票是愚者的Dubo,智者的游
' D* j( Y7 P- J' |1 d戏,我赞承这种说法。
7 C; ?6 d0 X- N" N2 K2 c现在还没听说过什么人能用玩彩来养家糊口、救国救民,如果真能玩到这种境界,
9 ~7 s; {* E. n2 ~9 x) O也算世界状元了!但如果你非赌不可,就必须首先具备成熟的心理素质。
# t" f. t9 P! _; k0 l首先应该面对的是关于彩票公证性的挑战。* l1 |) Q; ]8 K. o6 v
玩彩前,每个人都要先问一个问题:彩票公司公正吗?出号真的是随机的吗?
* Y8 m+ c" J- \8 ~) \! U- H疑问1:现在世界上主要国家(包括加拿大,不包括天朝)的彩票公司都在用一种( Q- l, ~* d; ?1 a8 j$ F
G-tech技术保护,不敢对G-tech多说什么,只是在下面列出很多彩票玩家经常提出
: X; f% Q# {. @0 V: `. Z6 y% s的一些与G-teck 有关的问题:
5 r2 N" E) L9 C( P* Why one organization called “G-TECH” behind the world lotteries?( q' _; t6 R {4 y; G
Is it because those world governments cannot afford to buy the% d, i: w% V6 d+ G- {# Q
equipment outright unless G-TECH supplies it to them?3 w) k7 E% y2 C& ~
* Why G-TECH collect percentage of the profit from the local operators?
4 b& n. ^) ]& z0 q0 y, z* What more is in to lotteries apart from Machines and Balls?, j- z9 b+ Q C# q; c/ c
Could it be software involved?( c' k& W' H4 l/ G" \8 E
* Why world data such as UK, France, Germany, Spain and even USA have the
1 u1 v G0 q3 d; `same resemblance but never and ever match entirely?9 `( N! ]) K8 x% f/ [$ u
* Why satellite terminals are involved if the draws are taking place locally,
3 \, ]6 k0 x" sis it because to transfer data back to G-TECH for calculations?
% ]6 t* o9 ]" o, N" S' V) p* Why there is a minimum of half hour interval from the shut down of terminals
6 X# t9 P: x/ |to the time draw takes place, what the organizers do during this time?. c' A( N! l k! A. e j
* How can the local organization running the lottery like Camelot in UK can take
" ]) p) U9 @' h0 F7 g9 ~0 R3 v, B4 F, |their share of sales (%50 I believe) before the draw takes place especially# T( S$ ~2 i' J& o. C5 g0 t6 d8 a
where there is a minimum prize of £10 guaranteed? ? How do they know how3 Z" T- f8 h' b+ |# Q1 S
many $10 winners there are to calculate their sums when there is a possibility
! M+ C" |- g2 Oof the number of £10 winners exceed from the total sales?
; e; n; x. C* e, w6 P** 注:据说G-tect理论需要30分钟去完成某些“优化”计算
. w% P9 c( Y$ c: w** 注:理论上讲,过去的中奖号码最多在4500期后就会出现首次重复。" p& i9 p8 J. W' V- x# _! l( O! K V6 }
疑问2:曾有人在某彩票玩家网站上贴出下面文字,后来经有心人查证,其作者IP
F. m. r7 Y" r) n1 J. \8 m9 G似乎是控制加拿大649、Super7的彩票公司,就是说是彩票公司内部的人发出的...
* Z' d0 r+ i% U# D. DWinning numbers how there are selected
' i# t7 h. u. d" c0 Z0 [$ cThis is the way we select the winning numbers:
' |! a3 b0 I; gSelect "XXX' Numbers_set from Played_numbers
" x4 o8 m" x! R: Pwhere Province_of_played='XXX' and city_of_played='XXX" and time_of_played='XXX'
! L: o6 u; @ w. eand Method_of_Played='XXXX'
/ S: l |. e; eOn each ticket we record the place, the time and the way the numbers have been selected.
4 h. N1 r" A: Z0 @We run this query against all played sets.
9 `* O% t3 C7 b& CWe then feed the drawing machine with the results, the outcome will always be what we want.4 Y& L' c* `& [- a- }0 h) a h. W8 a
For example if we want to have a single winner from Ontario, who played quick pick we run1 J& y! `) x$ I K5 q' T3 h: o
the following query:
! V& y; ]% d: {. ?! CSelect unique numbers_set from played_numbers+ X; ?/ z4 }3 W: ^- j- [
where province_of_played='Ontario' and method_of_played='quick pick';' ]2 J0 v; M, ^3 d& G4 w
It just takes less than 5 minutes to get the results.+ ^; V- u1 Q4 ?; a# H4 S
We prefer players wo play quick pick because our machine predict the numbers./ t8 t6 v) l! N7 r0 K
If we do not want a winner we run the following query:
; U4 S% [$ L& ^7 ^5 c2 c" }8 eSelect unique numbers_set from all_numbers_set where numbers_set not in played_numbers;
# x$ j* R& j( j- Y j' T上述英文是原文,没经过任何改动。; Q$ `: _5 V. b5 Z4 ]
虽然此帖没明说是用在何种彩票上,但后来因为其作者IP的曝光(彩票公司内部人),: L. q Q: K6 o$ C
很让人怀疑加拿大649、Super7的公正性。如果这是真的,很恐怖。1 S: b; S8 ]5 k5 M" U5 o- M0 [& _: m" z
疑问3:为什么现在加拿大彩票公司不实况转播摇奖过程,为什么加拿大彩票公司
+ v3 v1 `+ c# T( u在停止售票1个半小时后才开始摇奖,而且每次摇奖只有几个人参与(一两个摇奖
3 Q8 g1 l0 _; d( F5 q) T人员加三两个摄录的技术人员)?, O. ?; B# k0 L/ y9 }
为什么摇奖过程没有法律公证人员参与、证实?为什么所有玩家购买号不能在摇奖" E Q( Q l: ^/ m1 S. O! J
前刻在一张非重写的光盘上(体现公正性方法之一)?等等,很多问题。
! `0 s9 @* k1 z, Q! k疑问4:为什么大多数情况下,“中奖者”信息不公开?(有人指出有很多未曝光的重* a, V' G/ S9 f3 }/ A) t
复中彩者)% K- k% M2 R0 ~7 L* s
为什么几年前安省649出号与同期加拿大649出号极其相像,远远超过其理论上的1 M- m/ m4 @0 `/ @. {( U- J
可能性?
& D& d: S5 d* }+ k# F疑问5:为什么彩票公司很多公开年薪超过10万的工作人员,几乎所有人公开的Taxable
+ X% n- y: k+ \; fBenefits只有不到200元?不用上税的Benefits有多少?
* ], H" ]0 Q: {3 A r下面附件里包括部分2003年OLGC年薪超过10万的Name、Position、Salary、" n2 ]5 @2 k9 O: i
Taxable Benefits。其实还有很多的疑问,但以上的疑问足以使一个成熟的人望而* a4 g8 y: x9 V# L# M
止步。我个人的感觉,相比之下真正公正的彩票是天朝的彩票。如果你有成熟的心- Q. `, l: B* P& Y$ }
理素质包容以上疑问,并且还坚持非赌不可,那么你还需要了解一些有关彩票的最
/ q1 m8 K. L N. z* z) y5 n基本的知识。
* S: x! h( R/ h7 L6 f# X应该承认,通过适当的分析,是可以大幅度提高中奖机率的。虽然那个玩21点的,
+ V+ K8 v5 i3 X! ^1 g在掌握了提高3%的赢牌机率技术后,一个晚上就能赢走90万多美元,但是对彩票$ T; U/ s, b' W
而言,却完全不是这样。其实对彩票研究而言,提高3%的中奖机率并不困难。比. W( C' x: P8 s4 C4 H; c
如几周前,某人给出20个数字,说明是其后10次加拿大649最佳候选号。结果中5
. w( a! K- d( x- G个(或以上)中奖号至少3次以上。
1 e" e* S8 A9 u+ G理论上,49选20中5的几率是3.2153%,此人的结果提高30%以上的中奖机率。可% o% [0 J6 H$ A' n
结果是他自己最多中了10块钱。原因很简单,彩票可能性的数据量太大,除了专业4 y; \& o+ M% _
玩彩的,没有人会每期投入几十万。
8 j$ ^. Z) X& ]+ n" t* B20选6有38760种可能,20选5加另外29选1有449616种可能,每期花$976752,9 U L( E8 K4 G7 Z1 N$ T+ A% o3 P
似乎专业玩彩的也不敢这样投。结论是即使你提高了30%的中奖机率,尤其是没有
8 @+ C" B5 A( {6 K( b/ g1 o. ?人敢100%保证它的号能每次都达到30%的中5个机率,如果每次买全可能号码,最' P4 E% J- J% e
后你还有70%的机率是赔。
, v1 D9 z' ^9 l: ^4 _2 }即使用旋转矩阵选号,20中5保3也要20个以上,仍然赔。如果不自己选号,去quick
2 {& }1 e7 |% d3 j& ipick,就是机选,那你几乎是没有什么机会的,即使是10块钱,你也会很难得到。: e- u$ c& b1 l: x* q
且不说上面提到的G-tech保护,首先,理论上的中奖机率就少得很。理论上的机率3 V P' @9 G P L7 \$ X
也不保证100%中奖机率。
# M4 |1 Q% X7 r: J$ ]0 j) a举个具体的649的例子,中3的机率大概是1.765%(或1/57),但你买57张彩票,
% Z2 s& ?6 L3 D! R; S% C" f却不能100%的保证中3。如要100%的保证中3,现在的世界纪录是163,就是最少
7 R5 w- N {$ l2 r& z# _! E, g买163张彩票(当然按特定组合了),才能100%的保证你中3个。如果你老能设计
1 k- N& S, Q% x/ B一种组合,用低于163的数额就能保证中3,可以去参加Lottery Wheeling i, k" T4 H" P% O. c7 U
Challenge,也弄个青史留名。当然,这特殊的163张彩号组合,肯定不会受G-tech
M: ]" z) M4 w' g* l- v影响。问题是用163张彩票,$326,去赌$10奖金是否值得。( B% k5 R3 d) F7 J( A: E
如果在这时你老还是非赌不可,那么该如何赌呢?不同的人有不同的技术,如果你
4 d) P$ p2 x1 A5 H' A没有白胡子老头托梦告诉你中奖号码,只能多在历史数据里下功夫了。
+ M% k {3 a- v$ f* ^说到彩票研究,会有很多人说是痴心妄想。; B% y4 T1 `. Y1 A4 D8 ]7 k
明白人会用概率理论来说明彩票是不可预测;/ m. B% X1 L3 g1 l1 v. L( @- [, ]; Z
不明白人会说,如果你能预测,就先来中几千万;% `5 r1 |6 u$ |9 I
不明不白的人会说,中大奖的人都活不长,等等。
; E( t1 ]7 L3 i+ E且不管这些不同人的心态,仅对彩票本身而论,要研究彩票,只能从历史数据着手,
: ^) u+ F% M4 X6 O; k1 q/ K前提是你要承认历史数据与下期中奖号码有某些联系。
: Y! d9 B$ g) X4 v2 {" _& C比如说第2527期彩票中奖号码是20 21 22 29 39 41,那么理论上第2528期的中奖
4 }* j0 {8 J6 J- F, d5 P( W4 ]/ N号码于上期没有任何重复数字的几率是43.6%,有一个重复数字的几率是41.3%。
+ ^8 e; L+ M* W5 b( U- k对所有前2527期结果统计表明,每期与前一期没有重复数字的次数是1086,重复. H5 u" q& O, l' q! T
1的次数是:1047。另一方面,每期与20 21 22 29 39 41比较,没有重复数字的次
# E9 ^; N! `3 x5 N. @0 U+ X* B1 ]数是1102,重复1的次数是:1040。这些统计结果显示基本与理论结果一致。
9 T9 `" `1 \2 s& q+ I: I明白人知道这里我想说明什么。
( r5 ^6 S: t$ m6 e+ }7 B6 S i在第2528期中,不同的组合,其出现的机率是不一致的。比如,与2527期重复2或
) C; y# _. ]; n- z$ J1 {$ U大于2的组合,其出现机率要小于15.1%。承认历史数据与下期中奖号码有一定联系
9 p8 D, l" p1 D7 \后,你可以设计不同的参数去分析,其中某些是非常有效的。大家分析同一个对象,! y' O' F }4 Y; c8 Q/ a; h1 Y! o* t
但具体方法不同,其结论有天地之差。比如国内很多“专家”出书,分析奇偶,目前为/ D% M! h( J: [6 O: \5 o
止,没看到任何实用的分析方法。简单的通过近期奇数个数、偶数个数来判断下期- p0 c0 N# _7 W, H2 A
奇偶分配,简直就是天方夜谭、痴人说梦。对具体的分析对象、分析方法的讨论,3 z9 z# G3 h; j3 K, n+ G
有时间时再听俺下文分解俺自己的心得。也请各位高人帮助填补下面内容。
# m. z6 ]" W0 u% S5 @ y, W小赌可以养家糊口,大赌可以救国救民。 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|