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[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
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此帖转贴,作者wloo (凉咖啡)
% ^- x- Z; W/ f( X1 b/ d- }Dubo不是好东西,盲目的赌真的会让你倾家荡产。但是如果你真能掌握其中某些实: |- H% L1 i' I2 H* L' B
质,结果也许真的会大不一样。
" C7 l* Y1 t; o* u/ H2 O3 O7 M一个玩21点的,在掌握了提高3%的赢牌机率技术后,他一个晚上就能赢走90万多) y" G$ q( z6 N6 p4 D
美元% @8 J* P# [% G4 Y" ]- _3 x
他凭自己的技术,要养家糊口是不成问题的。要说华尔街那些人能在某种程度上掌
1 K' h) C( C/ p1 v控国家经济,也是事实。他们所做的某些工作跟赌有紧密联系的。所以说,小赌可4 M& z( c1 X1 \. ?
以养家糊口,大赌可以救国救民,也不能算是痴人梦话。0 t" Y$ y" S3 i. X. V( I
Dubo有多种,这里只说赌彩,就是玩彩票。 有人说,彩票是愚者的Dubo,智者的游
4 B/ [# L7 O2 W1 l; |戏,我赞承这种说法。4 Q* X! E" |: p' Y( g$ P6 p
现在还没听说过什么人能用玩彩来养家糊口、救国救民,如果真能玩到这种境界,
* B! X t% X0 ~/ b. [9 s. Y g也算世界状元了!但如果你非赌不可,就必须首先具备成熟的心理素质。
" ^( z3 u1 \8 e$ ~首先应该面对的是关于彩票公证性的挑战。' E7 W# v6 Z( w+ n% h$ G" H; F* i) ^
玩彩前,每个人都要先问一个问题:彩票公司公正吗?出号真的是随机的吗?
2 E) [4 V: Y3 k5 Z) w* @( j* W4 W7 D疑问1:现在世界上主要国家(包括加拿大,不包括天朝)的彩票公司都在用一种
$ }2 _* E7 e1 x3 Y; T% UG-tech技术保护,不敢对G-tech多说什么,只是在下面列出很多彩票玩家经常提出 T& }: h$ B$ O8 \4 h, c
的一些与G-teck 有关的问题:
% ?5 l, _! P" B2 E: Y- W* Why one organization called “G-TECH” behind the world lotteries?
- ^) g$ ^/ }! O3 k8 A/ m& n: kIs it because those world governments cannot afford to buy the
% k0 M' E$ a( C2 Vequipment outright unless G-TECH supplies it to them?4 E4 d# K c, \. c; l
* Why G-TECH collect percentage of the profit from the local operators?: l: n4 J4 C6 U8 {. g7 R+ t3 D) |
* What more is in to lotteries apart from Machines and Balls?9 c" x6 N( v6 E: O# p9 n! w4 ~7 O
Could it be software involved?
, @0 d/ a; o; }2 o* Why world data such as UK, France, Germany, Spain and even USA have the
4 P. h$ y% l" n C5 d5 s8 w: A) msame resemblance but never and ever match entirely?) h) X2 b' s% x& w- F1 R7 H! y
* Why satellite terminals are involved if the draws are taking place locally,
5 n+ r& j8 F, L. \; Bis it because to transfer data back to G-TECH for calculations?
0 X1 f! w$ z9 ~' m9 W! Z, e* Why there is a minimum of half hour interval from the shut down of terminals
8 r' ~# F5 n, g3 ~to the time draw takes place, what the organizers do during this time?9 {4 q/ I' q9 ~1 j2 p3 e2 V
* How can the local organization running the lottery like Camelot in UK can take
, k4 r' }$ _* d9 B% g' X2 B% O" Stheir share of sales (%50 I believe) before the draw takes place especially
( x( q0 E! U, v; h5 r4 ]where there is a minimum prize of £10 guaranteed? ? How do they know how1 a0 Z4 f8 `. p( {5 v
many $10 winners there are to calculate their sums when there is a possibility
7 [* z0 ?0 X' m, p+ |- W9 d! bof the number of £10 winners exceed from the total sales?
_( q) ]) y9 r0 z7 F3 X9 f** 注:据说G-tect理论需要30分钟去完成某些“优化”计算1 [# Z+ L2 e$ \/ Q0 y: a% O! j
** 注:理论上讲,过去的中奖号码最多在4500期后就会出现首次重复。4 b" E* f( Z, Y# h
疑问2:曾有人在某彩票玩家网站上贴出下面文字,后来经有心人查证,其作者IP
, x. D; \ Y+ M& S似乎是控制加拿大649、Super7的彩票公司,就是说是彩票公司内部的人发出的...
0 @: r- P0 c3 E7 {, a8 M2 `Winning numbers how there are selected. c: s; U3 f$ L7 U- }* E0 t, p
This is the way we select the winning numbers:
) Q: r. F/ \3 @: a; u2 KSelect "XXX' Numbers_set from Played_numbers
8 z2 A$ j" ]- b2 e X) ?where Province_of_played='XXX' and city_of_played='XXX" and time_of_played='XXX'
8 p. a' A0 S. p, Gand Method_of_Played='XXXX', N6 h6 o4 A5 u* c8 x
On each ticket we record the place, the time and the way the numbers have been selected.$ R) M7 x5 e! J+ {! Y, t* p, M( Z
We run this query against all played sets.
+ G N5 ^: X" M+ sWe then feed the drawing machine with the results, the outcome will always be what we want.1 a6 w, o' Q* S0 `
For example if we want to have a single winner from Ontario, who played quick pick we run
a8 \6 b4 v. t. Pthe following query:5 {9 W- J* U% m' @' Y$ |
Select unique numbers_set from played_numbers
/ k% I, A5 S# G2 u7 wwhere province_of_played='Ontario' and method_of_played='quick pick';
4 {% A! _- y4 _& uIt just takes less than 5 minutes to get the results.) o5 R7 f4 c4 l# z% g% Q
We prefer players wo play quick pick because our machine predict the numbers.
9 d6 O+ V2 V2 h. I1 e! tIf we do not want a winner we run the following query:
5 H) P" G( v- ?7 x) n; qSelect unique numbers_set from all_numbers_set where numbers_set not in played_numbers;0 a4 }$ U; ? W
上述英文是原文,没经过任何改动。
$ T. ^2 `4 @1 i虽然此帖没明说是用在何种彩票上,但后来因为其作者IP的曝光(彩票公司内部人),, B1 z# V0 v) l+ M! _, V
很让人怀疑加拿大649、Super7的公正性。如果这是真的,很恐怖。
( Q" n1 s3 r. T$ Y疑问3:为什么现在加拿大彩票公司不实况转播摇奖过程,为什么加拿大彩票公司
6 ^7 }, X" Q8 y) P$ P& ]/ a6 ~+ y0 w在停止售票1个半小时后才开始摇奖,而且每次摇奖只有几个人参与(一两个摇奖
3 ]% _* W( Z& Y. X1 k人员加三两个摄录的技术人员)?
4 Q! o4 _2 h1 f7 W. M0 r7 r为什么摇奖过程没有法律公证人员参与、证实?为什么所有玩家购买号不能在摇奖( }$ @0 B S& [( k) {
前刻在一张非重写的光盘上(体现公正性方法之一)?等等,很多问题。
/ A `1 B8 C) u1 b/ o5 K) `# S疑问4:为什么大多数情况下,“中奖者”信息不公开?(有人指出有很多未曝光的重
. b# m. X& Y/ S* S/ V& E/ w F复中彩者). u: {1 T& I- G) ~# d- f; D% ~4 T1 c
为什么几年前安省649出号与同期加拿大649出号极其相像,远远超过其理论上的
) v9 x8 a" _3 k! F3 j$ G( S可能性?, t1 i% q( L0 q. u4 c& I; B# J, q% U) B
疑问5:为什么彩票公司很多公开年薪超过10万的工作人员,几乎所有人公开的Taxable' I/ X8 a) _2 M" _
Benefits只有不到200元?不用上税的Benefits有多少?3 ^& H6 {) a' f
下面附件里包括部分2003年OLGC年薪超过10万的Name、Position、Salary、
! u% P. b! e- [" R: _8 z; e# ITaxable Benefits。其实还有很多的疑问,但以上的疑问足以使一个成熟的人望而
- M0 n" G( ~: k$ v4 x; q止步。我个人的感觉,相比之下真正公正的彩票是天朝的彩票。如果你有成熟的心' a: H+ }" D* N0 q
理素质包容以上疑问,并且还坚持非赌不可,那么你还需要了解一些有关彩票的最4 a+ O2 c/ z" e) J
基本的知识。
, l6 S- O( [$ w( i: X) _应该承认,通过适当的分析,是可以大幅度提高中奖机率的。虽然那个玩21点的,: y. I& L# \- `
在掌握了提高3%的赢牌机率技术后,一个晚上就能赢走90万多美元,但是对彩票# a9 ~/ F Y) U. e4 |( h4 D) E
而言,却完全不是这样。其实对彩票研究而言,提高3%的中奖机率并不困难。比" C2 h B$ J" b7 r' c: W( l. W
如几周前,某人给出20个数字,说明是其后10次加拿大649最佳候选号。结果中5
' B0 [! ^2 D3 Q, {个(或以上)中奖号至少3次以上。0 K$ z% M0 R) l% m( C' M
理论上,49选20中5的几率是3.2153%,此人的结果提高30%以上的中奖机率。可 t G$ `7 V$ l* g
结果是他自己最多中了10块钱。原因很简单,彩票可能性的数据量太大,除了专业
: z9 e' B+ x2 K, q. O! Q( _玩彩的,没有人会每期投入几十万。1 E# i: W( N! S( j
20选6有38760种可能,20选5加另外29选1有449616种可能,每期花$976752,6 |/ E: `7 j, N1 l3 E* q6 Q
似乎专业玩彩的也不敢这样投。结论是即使你提高了30%的中奖机率,尤其是没有
, P: U8 B) V+ c$ P6 ~0 E( [/ m9 X人敢100%保证它的号能每次都达到30%的中5个机率,如果每次买全可能号码,最
% p* M s+ t) [5 ]" B, h后你还有70%的机率是赔。, O6 H; |$ j8 i9 x
即使用旋转矩阵选号,20中5保3也要20个以上,仍然赔。如果不自己选号,去quick* o/ t% o1 b" \' Q. A0 ?8 n% {( }
pick,就是机选,那你几乎是没有什么机会的,即使是10块钱,你也会很难得到。/ p* ]8 N/ _" H) q
且不说上面提到的G-tech保护,首先,理论上的中奖机率就少得很。理论上的机率
) u: R. I8 z9 o4 x9 \+ l也不保证100%中奖机率。
' f" q) V( P8 J8 J# V举个具体的649的例子,中3的机率大概是1.765%(或1/57),但你买57张彩票,1 y% T$ k* r/ f) s. n. L
却不能100%的保证中3。如要100%的保证中3,现在的世界纪录是163,就是最少) u- E& p% h9 ]9 W' U. ?1 F& h Z
买163张彩票(当然按特定组合了),才能100%的保证你中3个。如果你老能设计# }& _1 Y" p: |2 A: l& L' C
一种组合,用低于163的数额就能保证中3,可以去参加Lottery Wheeling: R0 R% V5 u, ?% w# ~
Challenge,也弄个青史留名。当然,这特殊的163张彩号组合,肯定不会受G-tech9 ]! ~% g! a, f( F! t
影响。问题是用163张彩票,$326,去赌$10奖金是否值得。
3 E5 o! H- O) ^- T如果在这时你老还是非赌不可,那么该如何赌呢?不同的人有不同的技术,如果你
" r9 e- h' a& e R/ E没有白胡子老头托梦告诉你中奖号码,只能多在历史数据里下功夫了。" L; O* Q/ T7 c# {2 z
说到彩票研究,会有很多人说是痴心妄想。5 t+ A3 B! v" D! ?
明白人会用概率理论来说明彩票是不可预测;& Z. b; h, m) O
不明白人会说,如果你能预测,就先来中几千万;
- F, P2 k) ?8 c8 {0 B4 Y不明不白的人会说,中大奖的人都活不长,等等。
0 A1 d/ ]9 R" ^且不管这些不同人的心态,仅对彩票本身而论,要研究彩票,只能从历史数据着手,5 @- C/ ^& A$ V* m) E
前提是你要承认历史数据与下期中奖号码有某些联系。* L, l8 e$ d1 B2 F- P
比如说第2527期彩票中奖号码是20 21 22 29 39 41,那么理论上第2528期的中奖1 P' W) g0 b, L& H
号码于上期没有任何重复数字的几率是43.6%,有一个重复数字的几率是41.3%。
0 N: p3 [, i# C" s对所有前2527期结果统计表明,每期与前一期没有重复数字的次数是1086,重复
* O1 n3 T* V; q4 p: Q. A5 E1的次数是:1047。另一方面,每期与20 21 22 29 39 41比较,没有重复数字的次( e, X- G! u* d
数是1102,重复1的次数是:1040。这些统计结果显示基本与理论结果一致。! \7 |6 z8 i" A$ s% s
明白人知道这里我想说明什么。5 V8 c) r3 `4 _6 x" c9 D
在第2528期中,不同的组合,其出现的机率是不一致的。比如,与2527期重复2或8 {8 S" v3 g4 a8 Z9 m
大于2的组合,其出现机率要小于15.1%。承认历史数据与下期中奖号码有一定联系1 c4 D. ], ^6 p$ V3 u1 f O
后,你可以设计不同的参数去分析,其中某些是非常有效的。大家分析同一个对象,
+ a( j: r$ h4 p( }6 `" z但具体方法不同,其结论有天地之差。比如国内很多“专家”出书,分析奇偶,目前为
/ g5 n! s3 j, M$ s# |止,没看到任何实用的分析方法。简单的通过近期奇数个数、偶数个数来判断下期
7 e/ d3 A/ W; i: Z" }奇偶分配,简直就是天方夜谭、痴人说梦。对具体的分析对象、分析方法的讨论,
* c; l, }5 u) `/ y有时间时再听俺下文分解俺自己的心得。也请各位高人帮助填补下面内容。' O& F/ ?/ c4 s- D
小赌可以养家糊口,大赌可以救国救民。 |
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