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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

5 b/ M5 V' J# R3 G" W* ?: ]) l1 y4 X# I
賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
  u3 k) ?; s: k0 o* ~10A23456789; u9 @5 R6 _$ o0 I
-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159  a) T9 ~% w5 B. ]" l; P. s
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
  c6 a- G+ M0 Q% z2 ^+ m-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133
3 q$ z) S: }; X1 `3 ?3 l-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120/ V( C* `. Y8 |1 H' F
-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108
4 z$ D+ h  a( |. t1 U- [# a$ F-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096, H  g) I2 m% c: @, R0 M; O0 [
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085
- v/ h) k( Z" a. O- V+ A% Z+ s# h-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
: y+ ]' _8 ?7 ~9 ]9 ]0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064* G5 ^2 e! L# P/ }: c2 P
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
4 U( i$ b& e/ o' b& i2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.0453 X( [, X# C' Y& C# r% r, }' D. f
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036/ A3 e0 l' @+ v. n$ J  p
4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
& Y& E5 B" E$ B0 V2 F# Z; x5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020* f, `6 @! D  j" S. T
6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
/ k7 e+ h# I# w1 W: r8 ^/ b( [7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007+ U+ R9 i; J: \( @
8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001. ^6 g* }* e- B9 i& L
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.9963 c( M$ C; V* t$ }2 b
10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992! R' e& B% o5 E
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988, z6 @  M; G8 l
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985
# S5 H* z9 s2 j13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982
" d$ K: }- ^" @8 ~14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980, l; f) \% P0 }( C# X
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
# w# o3 S% F7 v% h; ~16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979% l. s0 C" Z8 F/ o( W
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.9790 s1 L: [& P% Z" K% h7 z
18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979
2 r' A) X" M# J8 z# |9 C19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981% D# O2 s! o$ \) b. Q
20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.9830 {7 [, @4 U, I1 u& v
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.9865 D1 h. r' V- r0 N
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
3 S0 W/ n) {! E1 \23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993- X* _! m5 y2 ?' s
24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.9972 T: B. d9 C9 \  q8 r, H) {9 H) j1 H' h& ?
25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
* _' _- @, J. b* h& {. C

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。

) i2 F" v9 b, u. C; Q+ Q5 c: J: m
表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類/ [9 F2 Y3 Q/ E, z5 Y' h8 t
10A23456789
7 `% b6 e' B& u. e7 E-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095" |/ J# E3 }& }. T
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082  X% }" L5 \- W% s
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069! W( I' r5 Y; e
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056
0 W- K& n0 D+ w) n: N: n-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.0444 c  |3 C5 u3 l- v1 g
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032
  a/ Z5 D3 \& ]9 g% a/ i-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021% @$ `9 |( T- J7 @' E7 I' S
-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010
3 S( ]- t, J$ C8 C' H. U00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000$ K' ?1 W/ _* @: r* v# X( {
1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010# p( h$ K2 C/ J
2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019: ?- q5 I( O+ C& G9 l+ ]
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
5 O% x! a6 e3 [1 B. c4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036) w0 G6 N; o+ }) ]
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
3 i3 q5 n% j5 ]2 c# J6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051' j0 w0 q9 X* \
7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057" \& k" g1 C# }$ D6 |! X
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063- {# h" h, o- n  M6 q
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068' q2 O" `0 t. e" T
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.0728 t" ?$ C1 a. R- t( M1 G2 r
11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076$ I  x& r, Q; K0 W% e
12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079
1 `/ ~+ x1 }8 ^! r' k- Q13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082
$ J0 T2 f% C! k14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084- }5 q7 m3 e% w4 E9 \' _- H5 U
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085
$ N4 u0 G! @8 T6 R8 N; h, U3 }2 }0 r16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
2 Z5 B/ K" o; Y0 g, X. d  D! e17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085. q$ F1 E% O! K) B4 U5 D9 n
18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
# v, d% k' q1 U0 q5 j4 |19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083& f0 Z# G. A: L- U
20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
  z3 u& V$ X6 ~9 B21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.0788 R( l3 U2 M0 c9 a8 J7 S! t
22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.0750 h4 i- v- k# M0 t) a$ Q5 |
23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071
$ Q- L$ R2 o# O! e$ |; D1 T24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067) L$ v; e; z, W+ W5 x2 j) M% q" B
25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
/ l* }/ Z  Y0 N

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

7 c4 B9 @5 f/ W+ A# m  z
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
1 D) R$ E  L  ?3 ~+ p4 c10A23456789- m+ }+ u" h7 f9 j, k# R
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122/ S( O/ _2 o' O2 y% o+ o: G1 n
-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137( w' O6 x+ k! ?( c8 P5 G
-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152' o  s) r" w+ [( @+ M
-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.1667 S2 d0 }6 U6 J* M2 W( b5 w
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.1805 L& ~5 l# w' Q
-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
( U) W! e" L( b3 f8 L: B-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.2051 k) W# A" K2 R- h* ?4 O
-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217- k: W! l) ?2 Z8 L* s5 q0 X
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228
# B: G+ |0 Q3 [" \% |6 w" B1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239* |* N( {$ Z+ o  z. h3 P$ P
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.2490 ~& [* t# r( B# i6 G7 H+ d
3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258* L1 n& b+ Z  @( Q# d! K* p
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
) k. q# P0 J! l9 B0 ?. U- p7 D; W5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274' d( ?& `# |0 U& v7 |6 m4 ]; [
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281* v; h1 r, W! v$ ^
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287
) n8 `5 f& B7 W+ @# t0 D! p5 q8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
2 K5 F8 k/ g7 B1 Q9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298
: [5 L% [5 [' K2 v; W10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302# t; ^7 c; w% O: g
11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306( ~6 U! R" d) b8 ?0 h! Z" U% z/ M
12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308
" y" `  z( y( `3 R/ `13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310/ r4 z/ t  m9 _1 L+ z) N2 n
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
. |% H+ e3 Y, ]# e1 I15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311' n' d/ k- L0 i6 M1 m* u
16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311" n/ F( W+ u! H& r
17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310
7 W! T8 ?' [# `5 K, c4 P9 ^6 A, J18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
; {+ g3 s7 j5 f* x19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
+ ^" ~) i/ H7 L2 I20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301- |4 |! x/ |2 [& B
21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.2978 \2 O8 x) n* P; k  P- r
22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292' ?  k4 _9 u8 W+ n8 |
23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
0 o2 n" m, B3 f2 `24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279. c5 X) J; U/ p
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272
, L2 [% `# U% w8 Y8 C# {* E; {$ z

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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